Just got a report of snow flurries on St. Simons Island, Georgia! Ocean effect... first memory of that since 1989... Okay, so what do you guys think about this wet bulbing potential. With 40°F with an 11° dew point, if it starts raining we're talking about a roughly 8-10° temperature drop potential....

Portastorm, you may consider that the local guys at the NWS EWX probably know more about their mesocale patterns than a broad-brushed group at the WPC. I would personally take what the local forecast office says over the national forecasts any day. Of course, if the event looks like it'll actually u...

Obviously subject to change with a complicated weather pattern like this ... But, at the very least we're looking at some chilly days in Houston ahead.

What your gut feeling about our freezing rain chances?

Pre-Frontal compressional heating... same thing happening here in Houston. It's 60° as of Noon. Still, this will have little effect on the intensity of the changing air mass. It'll be cold in just hours...

Precip does back off significantly in the last three GFS runs compared to days earlier. This doesn't mean much overall because the system has yet to even develop... This also falls inline very well with the EURO, holding off on almost all measurable rain until Sunday. Pulling my head out of the mode...

Brooks, typically the Euro is off particularly this Fall and early Winter Season in our part of the world. Case in point... yesterday the Euro suggested QPF amounts of less than a tenth of an inch across Washington DC with their clipper system. Actually the NAM verified much better when it suggeste...

Brooks, typically the Euro is off particularly this Fall and early Winter Season in our part of the world. Case in point... yesterday the Euro suggested QPF amounts of less than a tenth of an inch across Washington DC with their clipper system. Actually the NAM verified much better when it suggeste...

Just thinking out loud, but have you guys noticed how the model progs are backing off overall, on the amount of precipitation potential for Friday and especially Saturday? That will be rather important to not lose sight of, if indeed, that is happening... Models want to hold it back until Sunday. Th...

don wrote:0z GFS is just as cold as the 18z run

00z gfs shows much less icing near Houston than the 18z did. But we're all talking about the difference between 1 or 2 degrees. Certainly we need to watch!!

Good night.

Not at this time, Paul -- but I could picture some issues north of Houston. Most likely Lufkin to Waco... maybe down into Conroe. Still too soon to say. We honestly won't know until a day or so out -- and even then not for sure until the event begins and we observe temps falling as the rain cools te...

That's a good 6hrs of freezing rain or sleet! While 18z gfs is the "bad run", maybe it's a sign of shifting model opinions... It makes sense though: dry dew points pulled in as that coastal low forms, producing dynamic cooling. If highs were already going to be in the upper-30s, as dew poi...

We're sitting here looking at these models wondering just how dramatic of a change it'll be for p-type if the models aren't comprehending the intensity and endurance of the cold, before precip begins... One to watch Friday and Saturday for sure... Ice pellets at worst Friday... freezing rain/sleet S...

Pretty stout high coming down from Canada! Approach 1060mb and modifying more slowly -- plus setting up farther east -- to push colder arctic air toward Houston than last week's.

Thanks Brooks. I appreciate the time and effort you took to explain perceptions. I think srain clarified what my issues were with this latest outbreak. I need to remember this KHOU weather forum, unlike the television station itself, isn't just for the local KHOU viewing area. We've suggested in th...

Excellent post Brooks. Over the years of the history of this Weather Community we do a fairly good job of laying out the potential and also folks need to understand as the years have gone by, our reading and member audience has grown to a rather large geographical area that covers areas from New Me...

A note about weather psychology ... Not just answering this one person, but to address the public's perception of "weather forecasters" as a whole... sigmund_froid_249x298.jpg 'Hype', in my humble opinion, is the wrong word to describe the lead-up to this latest cold air outbreak, and in m...

Happy January 2nd! Looking for another misty, drizzly day across southeast TX. Still, significant icing potential (in progress) in central/west, panhandle region... A totally different world up there today... No wintry weather here in southeast TX, but with 40s and low 50s for highs, it'll feel more...

There was some talk here over the last weekend about the trajectory of the cut-off cold core low, and the possibility of the column cooling off enough for snow directly under it's path. It appears that the low has indeed cutoff and is generally headed toward Texas, but I've seen no further discussi...

Here's a pic from viewer Cheryl Letolle this morning from Lubbock. Looks like a good coating to an inch. snow_lubbock_cheryl_Letolle.jpg Morning FutureTrack run keep icy mix well west of Austin at its closest pass to Houston (happening at peak wet bulbing tonight around midnight.) Liquid rain for us...

It's interesting that the National Weather Service in San Antonio is going so much colder than even the GFS -- a computer models which is still significantly farther north on the ice zone. This is a reflection of the model's inability to fully understand just how dense and cold this low-level arctic...