The 12z models are in, and every one shows strong potential for an MCS formation just north and west of Houston on Thursday afternoon, with risks for heavy rain and severe weather in SE TX by evening and lasting into Thursday night (eventually moving along the Gulf Coast, largely below Interstate 10...

FWIW, both 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS schemes are similar with the formation of an MCS west of Houston around 18z on Thursday.

There appears to be emerging model agreement (two runs ECMWF and latest GFS) for the potential of a large MCS Thursday into Friday. GGEM and 12z ECMWF versions may tell us something. Inflow is good, some separation from the cold front passing through the Midwest at that time. Key feature: subtropica...

NCEP_84HR_NAM_PTOT_1200z_JAN_22.jpg NCEP_84HR_NAM_PTOT_1200z_JAN_22.jpg The 12z model runs so far are much more optimistic (if that is the proper word) concerning frozen precipitation in Texas for the Thursday/Friday period. There is some modest upper air support with a weak shortwave digging south...