weatherguy425 no i mean strong as in strength, the GFS is by far the most “aggressive “ in terms of this systems strength, most model guidance is keeping this weaker and takes it into Texas and not riding it up the coast, for now this remains the more likely solution, the gfs solution is an outlier...

00Z Euro is a lot slower overall and we don't see a lot of the heavy rain across SE Texas until Tuesday and Wendesday

00z Euro is much different compared to the previous runs. It stalls it out over Southern Texas with Corpus and regions around there seeing the flooding risk.

EDIT: Eventually by day 4 the system shifts north

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:16 pm Could be a flooding event next week

It's possible, but at this point in time, I think increased rain chances along the Texas Coast is the most likely scenario right now.

If the system can quickly gain strength a track to the north is possible as upper-level steering currents are less zonal, but with so much land interaction it's going to remain difficult. Operational and ensemble support still remains marginal at best, but either way, if development occurs or not in...

Models continue to show parts of SE Texas on the cusp of drier air for the next couple of days as the frontal boundary that brought rain to the region yesterday stalls/shears out. Nothing crazy, but a small indication that we are closer and closer to fall and cooler weather. As for the tropics, most...

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:05 pm Tailgate Equipment is loaded, and I'm out of here to visit the Motherland and walk on the face of the sun this weekend.

Gig'em!

Have fun. I hope to make a game sometime later this year if I can arrange it around work.

The 12Z GFS does show some energy try to lift north from the BOC with a little more support from the ensembles but still seems like a low probability at this time. From a synoptical standpoint, the MJO looks less favorable and most models indicate any ITCZ action will likely stay further south and ...

The 12Z GFS does show some energy try to lift north from the BOC with a little more support from the ensembles but still seems like a low probability at this time. From a synoptical standpoint, the MJO looks less favorable and most models indicate any ITCZ action will likely stay further south and a...

A general warning to everyone to remain on topic and to minimize exaggeration/"wishcasting" as much as possible. A lot of different people visit these forums for information about the weather with a varying degree of knowledge. Our goal is to always keep this an open environment and for e...

Pretty amazing Ida looks as good as it ever has on satellite and radar. It shows how much potential storms can have when they are experiencing RI through landfall.

In case this hasn't been posted here is a remote camera on Grand Isle. Hard to see but water is a good 4-5ft above the ground

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-cha ... ress2.html

Seeing some extrapolated upper 920s mb now. Pretty incredible and near the worst-case scenario for the region. Based on the recent radar motion landfall should be around 10-12 this morning. Hopefully, a little bit of a west jog can occur so NOLA avoids the worse of it.

Latest pass showing ~945mb in the eye. Likely looking at cat 4 hurricane here.

If y'all can go read the NOLA NWS - they mean business I dont know how to copy and paste it on here Here is the AFD with the important stuff bolded: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 .SHORT TERM...All eyes on Ida. Ida continues to strengthen...

Is it me or does Ida look like she’s going street west the last few frames. :shock: It's just the rotation of the individual storms around the center that is still trying to fully clear. It's still moving to the NW and you will likely see a "jump" back north in the next couple of frames.

To me it appears that it may landfall quicker than tmw afternoon. It is moving more to the east and less time over water. The outer bands are already moving onshore se LA. If it doesn't track a little further west landfall could occur tomorrow around midday. With that said, the storm is expected to...

To me it appears that it may landfall quicker than tmw afternoon. It is moving more to the east and less time over water. The outer bands are already moving onshore se LA. If it doesn't track a little further west landfall could occur tomorrow around midday. With that said, the storm is expected to...

Model trends even this late and current storm movement is concerning for New Orleans. Really need the storm to adjust back to the w to avoid 'testing' the levee and drainage improvements after Katrina. Plus the latest recon fixes with current satellite data indicate more of a NW-NNW movement which ...

Unfortunately, Ida has remained just east of the NHC track for most of today so more significant impacts to New Orleans are more and more likely. The symmetry of the storm is starting to improve too with colder cloud tops surrounding the emerging eye.