Its actually pretty significant that the Euro caved and is now showing a storm again.After the last several runs have been completely dry in the post frontal air over the state.Looks like all major models are onboard now, just a question of specifics such as precip type and how far south the frozen...

Yes,its starting to look like for us in SE Texas our chance of wintry precip will come from the second trough that starts to slow down as it hits the southeast ridge late next week. Such a setup could produce a prolong winter storm with multiple disturbances along the subtropical jet moving through...

The storm system is still there on the GFS(shows a cut off low to our west).But the air is too dry and the troughs orientation is different.So it doesn't produce enough lift and has most of the lift east of us.I would expect flip flops in this range though.If we don't wont Ice we would have a bette...

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:01 am OMG, that Negative Tilt on the 12z GFS.

Whatever that is in that run means absolutely nothing significant for SE Texas. Maybe far far away from us like for you in Oklahoma but not here.

Well let’s not forget these are “models.” Perhaps the layer will be deeper than currently depicted and provide for more snow than freezing rain. That would be far better for many reasons.

What are the chances that this is snow, which would be a beautiful sight in Houston, as opposed to ice, which would be a disaster? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012900/gfs_asnow_us_35.png http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:52 pm 18z EPS is a thing of beauty!!

What does it show for Harris County?

18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:44 pm txsnowmaker wow that would be awesome if the gfs is right, but honestly don't know what to believe, hope we get some good surprises tommorow!

KHOU on air just mentioned the possibility of some snow flurries Friday morning as moisture moves across and exits the area.

0z GFS brings the snow depth back over Houston,.. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2022&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=00&fhour=30&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&a...

don wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:11 pm FWIW the 0Z NAM and WRF models have shifted the moisture axis slightly to the north keeping precip over SE Texas for a longer period of time.

Very interesting. If that map came to fruition are we looking at all sleet in Harris County and how much?

KHOU mentioning possibilities of a rain/snow mix north of I-10 tomorrow night and a few flurries Friday morning.

https://www.khou.com/article/weather/fo ... 42a93f444d

40% chance of rain/snow mix per David Paul and latest NAM is “very snowy” he reported.

0z GFS keeps Houston on the snow depth map, and David Paul just now saying Thursday night brings “at least a chance for some snow flakes.” http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2022&model_mm=01&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=00&fhour=54...

When you got kids and have an early bedtime during the week - yeah the 9:00 news is pretty appealing. Anyway, he didn’t get too excited about it. He said some pockets of light, mixed precipitation but “no snow storm” for the Houston area. Thankfully he’s been wrong before. By the way, you can also ...

Ppl still watch fox 26? When you got kids and have an early bedtime during the week - yeah the 9:00 news is pretty appealing. Anyway, he didn’t get too excited about it. He said some pockets of light, mixed precipitation but “no snow storm” for the Houston area. Thankfully he’s been wrong before. B...

0z NAM run really concentrates things down near the valley. Still has some parts of Houston in the snow depth zone but it’s the lightest shade of gray. It’s a weird run. Suggests continued frozen precip during the day on Friday in Houston when temps are supposed to be pushing and exceeding the 40s....

don wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:02 pm Yep,the 0Z NAM is a lot more reasonable than the 18Z run.

Can you explain the run’s suggestion that we keep getting frozen precip as we progress throughout Friday when temps should be well above freezing?

0z NAM run really concentrates things down near the valley. Still has some parts of Houston in the snow depth zone but it’s the lightest shade of gray. It’s a weird run. Suggests continued frozen precip during the day on Friday in Houston when temps are supposed to be pushing and exceeding the 40s. ...

Anyone care to explain how points south as far as Brownsville would see snow while Houston would be left with freezing rain/sleet?