We still could have had snow without the 540 line,if we had enough dry air for evaporative cooling to cool the air column.Of course without the 540 line its alot harder to get snow down here though.As far as the NAM totals, people need to remember that the snow totals especially on tropical tidbits ...

Yep the problem with having such a saturated profile is that it left little room for wet bulbing. Which made the warm nose harder to erode.The pattern we're in is ripe for more winter weather opportunities atleast.

0z Global models are already sniffing out another winter storm next weekend.

AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:18 pm Lucy pulls the football again for Houston....

No not really most models mainly shown a sleet mix in the Houston area,which is verifying now.It was always a long shot of getting all snow in metro Houston.Which is why Harris county was never under a warning or advisory.

KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:35 pm Snow transitioned back to all rain and the ice/snow accumulation we had briefly is melting. Strange!

It may have to due with precipitation rates, maybe the heavier rate of rain was able to cool the column down temporarily.

Bush and Hooks airports are reporting snow right now.

We still have along night,the HRRR has frozen precip becoming more enhanced around 9 to 11 tonight.

The latest HRRR is more aggressive with frozen precip in Harris and Montgomery counties.Radar now shows the frozen line down to the northwest side of Houston now.

Everything looks to be going as planed so far over the next few hours i expect the frozen line to reach atleast the northern half of Harris county.As some places are already reporting sleet along I-10 just to the west of the county.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 3:47 pm I dont see how we have 6 hrs of precip left...its almost gone...maybe I'm missing something

The moisture will continue to backbuild through the night,snowline is now starting to enter extreme northwest Harris county.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 2:04 pm

don wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:58 pm 18Z HRRR now has sleet transitioning into pockets of moderate snow in Montgomery and Harris Counties tonight.

How do the soundings look on the HRRR?

The soundings look pretty good later this evening looks like a sleet/snow mix profile.

As the precipitation picks up later today that's when the air column cools enough for snow.As the cold air aloft gets pulled down to the surface.

18Z HRRR now has sleet transitioning into pockets of moderate snow in Montgomery and Harris Counties tonight.

The main event wont start until late afternoon through the night.When the trowel or wrap around moisture becomes enhanced with cold air advection filtering in at the same time. The HRRR has been consistent since last night on showing this,that is also the time when the precip may become heavy at tim...

The HRRR has several hours of mix precip starting late afternoon along the I-10 corridor,including Metro Houston.

HRRR shows several hours of frozen precip (possibly heavy at times) all the way down to I-10. It also looks like models underestimated the cold air advection and are playing catch up since last night.If the trend continues i wouldn't be surprised to see Harris county added to the Winter Weather Advi...

Models have trended a lot more to the south with the gulf low over the last 24 hours.I'm starting to feel pretty confident that there will be snow as far south as the 59 corridor tomorrow. And maybe even brief heavy snow as far south as I-10.

Yes! The latest HRRR is very interesting.

Latest HRRR brings the frozen precip line into Harris county with plenty of moisture still moving through.

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:23 pm

don wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:21 pm The latest RAP model shows several hours of frozen precip starting tomorrow evening across Harris county.

Across the entire county? Any indications of how much?

Mainly north of the 59 corridor, but again i wouldn't expect any accumulation though.