Yes, the globals can do a good job with arctic air. I don't think any of us ever disagreed with that. We were just stating that usually the mesoscale models will do a better job with temps and precip in the short term specifically with shallow air. I was never debating about the overall lows( I cou...

What are you talking about? No one including the local media was ever forecasting a February 2021 repeat.The only disagreement we had was that the mesoscale models would end up more accurate than the globals when it comes to temps and precip. Which they were. You seem to want to disagree with us, j...

Not all that cold as what prior media hype, fear, etc indicated (i.e. even factoring in the "overperformance" of shallow cold on Monday into Tuesday morning). Lows both this morning and yesterday (@The Land of Sugar) were two quick dips into 19°F. IAH dipped briefly into 18°F yesterday mor...

As of 18z (latest full 48hr run), the HRRR keeps Houston in the 29-30°F range as the Tuesday morning temps. Lower 20s and teens farther west out in places like College Station and Austin, though.

18z NAM3km breaks everywhere in Houston above freezing tomorrow afternoon (if low and brief ~34-35° ish). A good bit milder than the previous run.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:26 pm I see a janaury thaw showing up in the models, hopefully that period is short lived, give me 30’s and 40’s for the rest of winter please!

Yes ... so far those temps remain only as nighttime lows!

Will see how things eventually finalize. But so far, everything has been staying/trending milder which each step. Be it GFS, EURO, NAM, etc. Even the coldest ICON has been taking the hint. As far as coldest night, it's a tough call because Monday night-Tuesday morning has lots of wind and cloud (hen...

My guess is, at some point tomorrow all models will show a frontal passage before 19z Sunday. Yeah, the ICON has now switched to that scenario on the latest 18z. But there's still more of a "warmup" with afternoon highs in the 40s/50s compared to the 30s shown in the NAM. We'll see if the...

How is it possible for the Freeze line not to be in SE Texas by Sunday Evening? ABC13 has a high of 46 this day. With the north wind that can’t be possible. If they are going by the GFS model, it is too warm High is in the morning. Ironically, while both the CMC and ICON have been the two coldest m...

Resolution is not the only thing that matters. Algorithms/the way models are "tuned" and data ingested into the models are more important.That's why we have so many models in the first place, they all have their strengths and weaknesses. We "long timers" have seen this scenario ...

Major differences between the NAM and GFS with the frontal passage. The NAM has the freeze line almost to the I-59 corridor by Sunday evening.While at the same time the GFS has temps in the 50's and 60's.This is because the GFS stalls the front, we've seen the GFS do this time and time again with s...

Two interesting things: 1. As mentioned before (and confirmed via weather.us), the EURO is actually the highest resolution (~9KM) of the globals, beating out ICON (~13km), and even two nests of NAM (~12 and 32km). Even the EPS ensembles run at ~14km, on par with 12km NAM nest and ICON. So, if resolu...

Just to clarify, the previous ICON runs (the 00z and yesterday's 12z) were well below freezing highs for SE Texas all of Monday and Tuesday (highs only in the 20s), with ultimate lows deep into the teens across SE Texas/SW Louisiana. It was even showing sub-freezing highs and low 20s down to Lower R...

By the way, the image below shows what the GFS was spitting out about a week prior to the Feb 21' freeze: https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/uploads/monthly_2021_02/GFS02102021.PNG.90fca133c12a405f0d189b0a6ef4e597.PNG Literal single-digts, even negatives (!!!) well down to the shorelines of SE Texas/SW ...

We'll see how things go regarding whether or not the ice and/or snow stick. Regardless of that, the 12zGFS actually features quite milder temps compared to the previous two runs. Even the "notoriously good at handling shallow airmasses" ICON came in quite milder on this latest 12z compared...

At this point I just need some more buckets because my Tii, Bird of Paradise, etc. collection is larger now. I pop them out of the ground and keep them in the garage in buckets. Some stuff like the red cloaks are too big and will just have to grow back. It's pointless. Everything will be decimated ...

Yeah, I love rain and storms! If we’re not gonna have wintry weather then at least let us have rain and storms! I would like to have honest to goodness summer washouts again — the summers of the aughts were very good with those across the Houston area, you can see notable contrast compared with 201...

I live out in the country away from concrete. I had 25” from Harvey here and still wasn’t even close to flooding. I’m sure if it would’ve came all at once instead of over a 3-4 day period then it would’ve been a different story though. I’d honestly love a good 10-15” of rain over one or two days th...

The winter of 1930-1931 did not have freezing temperature. January 1930 had a low of 5°F. 1931 did not see freezing temperature. March 1932 had freezing temperatures and it snowed. 1931 and 2023 are years without freezing temperature recorded. Of course, data from the past should be taken with caut...

I see 2 freezes for me and looking forward to a lot more in late January! They are coming. No doubt about that. That's why I compromise regarding a Dec 2008-type event — I was in first year in middle school then, but I remember the uncertainty regarding forecasts during the day, only for the "...