Raised to 50% now A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward to n...

I believe the reason why the GFS is much further south is because it develops the southern part of the wave where some other models have cyclogenesis occurring further north. Where this potential system consolidates is going to have big impacts on where it goes. Yep. https://twitter.com/AndyHazelto...

18Z GFS is further north into the Tampico area.Its very close though to being even more north than what it is with a frontal boundary entering the state as the system makes landfall.

Yep, it will be interesting to see if the Euro is on to something or not.Tonight's model runs should be interesting to see if they trend towards the euro.

12Z Euro ensembles

The Euro now has a 6Z and 18Z runs, but its only available on paid model sites.And doesn't got out as far as the 0z and 12z operational runs do.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:19 pm Hasn't the Euro been trash so far?

It has in regards to the strength of storms this season and last year,but not necessarily with the tracks of storms though.

12Z EURO much further north agreeing with some of it's ensembles from last nights 0Z.Has a category 1 towards Matagorda.

Now at medium. 2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves west-northw...

The trend in the 12Z operational models so far today has been further south with a stronger ridge in place.But still too early to know for sure how things will play out as we don't have a tc yet.

I just don’t see that ridge being that strong in 8-9 days A lot will depend on how fast the system develops also, as there will be a inverted trough over the east gulf temporarily later this week that could pull the system northward.Before the ridge builds back in,how far north the storm is at that...

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:00 pm At least there is Don and his excellent up to date model updates and graphics!

Aww Thank you!

12Z EURO similar to the GFS still into north Mexico as a tropical storm.

12Z CMC further north into north Mexico, but still far from us.

12Z GFS still holding steady with a strong blocking ridge.Keeping the system well south of us.

First 12Z global model run of the day ICON,next is GFS,CMC,& EURO in that order LOL.

Yep tropical storms are one thing, but hurricanes are no joke. I was without power for 2 weeks because of Ike.I don't want to go through that again. Even tropical storms can cause major problems as we've seen in the past. BTW the global models have trended south into Mexico. But it will be a few day...

Expect more flip flops until the models have a system to track.Remember when Grace was supposed to head towards the southeast?And when Henri was supposed to be a fish? We know how that turned out...

0z GFS has a stronger ridge,which protects us and sends the system to the same area as Grace. Still a ways to go though of course.

18z GFS ensembles are further north than the operational.

12Z Euro Ensembles.