Search found 328 matches

by jeff
Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2015: Ending Cold & Rainy
Replies: 303
Views: 143798

Re: November 2015 Weather Watching

00Z EC & 12Z GFS indicate heaviest rain staying north of Houston this weekend. Less than 1" of rain predicted for Houston by them. Fine with me. The models were way underdone last weekend both in C and SE TX. PWS 1.8-2.1 inches support heavy rainfall especially with a front stalling...but ...
by jeff
Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal
Replies: 767
Views: 332394

Re: October 2015 - Warming Up. No Sign Of A Pattern Change

Quick question Jeff (since nothing in our weather world is going on). You state, "can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas." I thought we are currently in an El Nino pattern which will be leading into a cold n wet late fall/winter season? That is what I hear all t...
by jeff
Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:39 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal
Replies: 767
Views: 332394

Re: October 2015 - Warming Up. No Sign Of A Pattern Change

A warm Atlantic (note the impressive warming since June) and a continued warm Gulf of Alaska region support southern plains drought...ie same pattern we have been in for years. Big question is can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas. On a side note...conditions for the 2016...
by jeff
Wed Sep 09, 2015 8:36 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2015: Pleasant Weather To End The Month
Replies: 178
Views: 91235

Re: September 2015: Wet & Unsettled Pattern Returns

I think we will see something...at least a TD and maybe a TS. It is mid September and a little bit more of an unusual possible track up from the SSW...but has happened before. Coastal winds will start increasing due to PGF this weekend post front and thus the tides will start to respond. Very low Td...
by jeff
Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:53 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month
Replies: 1084
Views: 501825

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

NO upgrade at 800pm...might as well wait until it is inland now!
by jeff
Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:11 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month
Replies: 1084
Views: 501825

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Tweet from the Director of the National Hurricane Center (https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/) at 12:50pm EDT on Monday: "Gulf system exemplifies why we’re developing future option to issue TC forecasts and warnings before TC formation. http://ow.ly/2btvEY" Get on with it already...this is a...
by jeff
Sat May 23, 2015 9:21 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region
Replies: 774
Views: 319092

Re: May 2015: Wet & Stormy Memorial Day Holiday Weekend

Voluntary evacuations of 10 subdivisions below Lewis Creek Dam.

See www.mctxoem.org for details and map of affected areas
by jeff
Fri May 22, 2015 5:46 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region
Replies: 774
Views: 319092

Re: May 2015: Wet & Stormy Memorial Day Holiday Weekend

About as serious of a flood threat as this area has seen in a while. Global models really pound the area with high QPF. EURO shows upwards of 7 inches over Houston area Sunday PM-Monday...ouch. GFS shows 2-3 inches. With rivers at their breaking points, and lakes full flooding is almost certain even...
by jeff
Sun May 10, 2015 6:55 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region
Replies: 774
Views: 319092

Re: May 2015: Heavy Flooding Rainfall Possible Thru Friday

KCLL special sounding will you interpret that for us novices Andrew - muchas gracias Yea, it basically shows an overall favorable profile for all three types of severe weather. Plenty of CAPE for strong updrafts for hail (and wind) with a vertical wind profile that supports the possibility for torn...
by jeff
Sat Mar 07, 2015 8:35 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: March Ends As One Of The 'Wettest' March On Record
Replies: 252
Views: 122579

Re: March: Moderating Temperatures and Wet Weather Next Week

QPF has been pumped up some this evening...2-4" widespread with isolated up to 6. HIRES guidance really likes the US 59 corridor from Wharton to Houston for some hefty totals. Rainfall of this magnitude could put the San Bernard and Tres Palacios into flood and result in some pretty good rises ...