Search found 328 matches

by jeff
Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible
Replies: 373
Views: 191770

Re: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

Seemed much colder with the less talked about front last weekend. This (arctic outbreak) is really just a cold front to me. Nothing to write home about, especially in the Houston area. I think there is a general mis-understanding of what is meant by arctic front. It is the source region of the air ...
by jeff
Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:44 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible
Replies: 373
Views: 191770

Re: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

A quick look at observations across Central and E Texas into Western Louisiana show near or just below freezing temperatures at Georgetown near Austin. Temperatures in Lufkin are near 34-36 and in Jasper into the Piney Woods E Texas and Western Louisiana near Dequincy temperatures are near the 34-3...
by jeff
Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:45 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible
Replies: 373
Views: 191770

Re: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

CAN anyone tell me if I'll see some frozen stuff in Lufkin over NYE? I only like it in margaritas :-( Thanks It looks unlikely given the cold surface air (freezing or below) will mainly be across central and west TX. This area will see the onset of moisture the latest and not likely until on NYD wh...
by jeff
Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:44 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible
Replies: 373
Views: 191770

Re: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

Dear Jeff: I am contemplating a visit to Moody Gardens on Galveston Island Friday. Does the fact that the low you mentioned in your last post is of a coastal nature put Galveston under a greater "elevated thunderstorm" threat than, say, Southwest Houston, where I live? Reason for post: &q...
by jeff
Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:12 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible
Replies: 373
Views: 191770

Re: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

12Z NAM dewpoints have trended colder along with 12Z GFS, but as mentioned above very little if any QPF in the model guidance. Neither model shows freezing low temperatures Thursday AM and any wet bulb effect (looking unlikely) with lack of QPF appears to go into saturated the low levels instead of ...
by jeff
Fri Dec 26, 2014 4:21 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible
Replies: 373
Views: 191770

Re: December 2014: Stormy Saturday Turning Colder Next Week

What are the chances of that arctic air bleeding east into Louisiana? Any thoughts? Highly unlikely. I've seen this pattern many times in my 35 years working as a meteorologist here in Houston. The models had the right idea last week (sub-freezing with precip) and now they've lost the event. The Eu...
by jeff
Tue Dec 23, 2014 9:23 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible
Replies: 373
Views: 191770

Re: December 2014:Christmas WX/Cold & Messy New Years Eve?

Dont think we are looking at anything record breaking or historic with respect to the cold air. Not sure we are looking at a repeat of March 2014 ice storm either. Too many variables at play over a week a away to even attempt to forecast P-type. However the pattern and upper flow due suggest both co...
by jeff
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2014: Nice Seanonal Thanksgiving Ahead
Replies: 333
Views: 167913

Re: November 2014: Severe Storms Possible This Weekend

Think the tornado threat will be enhanced along NE moving maritime boundary clearly noted from Matagorda Bay ESE into the Gulf of Mexico. Winds NE of the boundary are backed to the E and ESE while winds SW of this boundary are out of the SE to SSE. This backed low level flow near this boundary will ...
by jeff
Tue Oct 21, 2014 4:09 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Fall 2014 - Winter 2014-2015
Replies: 34
Views: 36456

Re: Fall 2014 - Winter 2014-2015

I sure would like to see the sub-tropical jet start to show up. October is usually a wet month in TX, yet since last Monday and into next week it has been dry. While I believe the atmosphere is responding to the warm SST's in the Pacific...I am wary of just how "above" the winter rainfall ...
by jeff
Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:48 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: October 2014: Slight Rain Chances/Halloween Outlook
Replies: 159
Views: 87318

Re: October 2014: Pleasant Fall Weather Week

What about any heavy rain/high wind event like we had on Monday? Anything like that on tap from either source?[/quote]

NO
by jeff
Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:20 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: October 2014: Slight Rain Chances/Halloween Outlook
Replies: 159
Views: 87318

Re: October 2014: Pleasant Fall Weather Week

Morning Briefing from Jeff: Coldest morning so far this fall this morning with low temperatures thus far ranging from 47 at Conroe to 63 at Galveston. Most locations have fallen into the upper 40’s and low 50’s. Surface high pressure will begin to move eastward today allowing weak southerly winds t...
by jeff
Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:20 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: ENSO Updates
Replies: 890
Views: 546695

Re: ENSO Updates

It really does not mean much for the rest of the ATL season. It is clear while all the indicies are somewhat lagging that the actual affect of warm phase ENSO is clearly being shown across both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Expect continued above average TC activity in the EPAC and below average ...
by jeff
Wed Jun 25, 2014 7:24 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?
Replies: 319
Views: 171871

Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Band from NNE of Corpus to NW of Victoria looks impressive. Likely going to get some storm totals of 6-8 inches or more in that area this evening.
by jeff
Tue Jun 10, 2014 6:17 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?
Replies: 319
Views: 171871

Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Well then, if a microcast model cant get it right 12 hours ahead of an event, then i dont put much stock in any other extended range model. Its amazing to me that with all the technology at a weathermans disposal the forecasts 12 hours ahead of time still cant be right. the microcast model that dav...
by jeff
Thu May 08, 2014 7:10 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved
Replies: 456
Views: 224791

Re: May: Rain Chances Increasing Thursday-Saturday?

HRRR wants to bring some of C TX activity into SE TX, but I have my doubts. Main forcing is across C into NE TX where favorable jet stream splitting is found. Having a hard time getting things going locally without any surface focus nor surface heating. I would not say the C TX activity is organized...
by jeff
Wed May 07, 2014 6:23 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved
Replies: 456
Views: 224791

Re: May: Rain Chances Increasing Thursday-Saturday?

Starting to wonder if the global models have overdone the PW. 12Z soundings were pretty dry (.65 PW at LCH) and BRO was only a little over an inch. Meso guidance shows a lot out west tonight and again Friday, but little makes it into SE TX. Could possibly be that the dry air in the 850-500 mb layer ...
by jeff
Wed Apr 30, 2014 9:16 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Watching Gene Norman in Birmingham
Replies: 11
Views: 12480

Re: Watching Gene Norman in Birmingham

I went through the A&M program and if you wanted to come out a forecaster...there was a lot left to desire. A lot of forecasting is experience you gain by working various events...theory is great and wonderful for research but there is just not the time during rapidly developing/life threatening...
by jeff
Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:57 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April: Sunny and Dry Heading Into May
Replies: 154
Views: 87212

Re: April: Hoping for a very wet month!

Models seeming overdone on precip thus far...same thing all winter. They really go to town over C LA where a good bit a cell training looks possible on the warm front which surges inland...that could be a bit high also given the current lack of development off the LA coast compared to what the model...
by jeff
Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:51 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: MCS Potential Houston and Gulf Coast Thursday
Replies: 22
Views: 14879

Re: MCS Potential Houston and Gulf Coast Thursday

SPC has been a little aggressive in their slight risk for SE TX thus far this year...given the capping seen. Soundings launched by UH this morning clearly showed significant capping. Tomorrow may be a different story...but it does not look widespread...maybe a few severe storms in the heat of the af...
by jeff
Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:55 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: EL NINO SUMMER?
Replies: 23
Views: 12505

Re: EL NINO SUMMER?

Warm ENSO years tend to favor early season development which can be in the Gulf of Mexico. Middle to late season tends to be disrupted by El Nino. Roughly 10% of TX annual rainfall comes from TX landfalls...and since there have been almost no threats to the state since 2011 that is one reason why it...