Search found 839 matches

by TexasMetBlake
Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:44 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2022
Replies: 1688
Views: 221795

Re: December 2022

The GEM keeps us below freezing from Thursday afternoon to Sunday afternoon with multiple nights in the low teens. Could it be on to something? It handled Feb 2021 better than any other model. I really wish the NAM was within range. Ugh!
by TexasMetBlake
Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:34 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2022
Replies: 1688
Views: 221795

Re: December 2022

00z GFS has my attention now, more moisture, hinting at precipitation with the front in SE Texas…… Pre-frontal. One thing that we will have to watch for is "flash freezing" of leftover water on elevated surfaces with temperatures almost immediately crashing into the 20s behind the front. ...
by TexasMetBlake
Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:34 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2022
Replies: 1688
Views: 221795

Re: December 2022

NWS has lowered the expected low at IAH to 15°F on Thursday night and 19°F on Friday night. Still might not be low enough. Yikes.
by TexasMetBlake
Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:29 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2022
Replies: 1688
Views: 221795

Re: December 2022

Hey all, been a while! I need to figure out how to change my username. Obviously, I’m not with KHOU any longer. Interesting times ahead! I still think the models are too warm for daytime highs and lows. With winds of 40mph and clear skies, pure arctic advection driven by a 1068 mb high should drive ...
by TexasMetBlake
Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:59 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021:
Replies: 1114
Views: 291859

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

With the SAL layer moving in, wind shear AND the fact that the circulation is so broad, I find it hard to believe this would become much more than a low grade tropical storm--at least the way it looks to me now. If this is a shrimpy system then landfall will be irrelevant with as most of the rain wi...
by TexasMetBlake
Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:30 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Blake Mathews Leaving KHOU
Replies: 12
Views: 7790

Blake Mathews Leaving KHOU

Well you guys, the time has come: my last on-air day at KHOU will be June 30th. The reasons for my departure are both professional and personal. 1. I miss my partner and I desperately want to be with him in Florida. 2 I’m ready to take on a M-F position which is an advancement in my career and allow...
by TexasMetBlake
Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:28 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

I'm seeing 4 populate on my GFS model for IAH. That's enough for an all-time record low. If we have 6-10 inches of snow on the ground and a clearing sky, why not?
by TexasMetBlake
Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:56 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Thanks for the thumbs up, y'all but it really is a team effort. David, Addison, Chita and I have been pouring over every model and every scenario. We determined a few days ago that the models just have no idea. So we're using sensible meteorology; looking up stream and watching how bad the models ar...
by TexasMetBlake
Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:54 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

12z euro is cold with a low of 15 in Houston on Tuesday AM but a high of 37 lol. Keeps everything liquid here. Storm track is further north keeping the warm nose in place. Looks very similar to a few weeks ago when College Station got snow and Houston didn't. Interesting.
by TexasMetBlake
Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:53 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

Digging through the records for the 15th and 16th, looks like we have some 1895 records that could fall! Monday, 15th: Record Low Max: 32 degrees set in 1909. Models are showing 20s. Record Low: 13 in 1895. Models show 30s. Tuesday, 16th: Record Low Max: 36 degrees in 1895 (I'm surprised that 'warm'...
by TexasMetBlake
Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:53 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

Euro has finally joined the GFS but keeps the coldest stuff for Tuesday 12z. Showing a low of 17 in Downtown Houston. Keeps all precip liquid with a change over to snow towards the Brazos Valley.
by TexasMetBlake
Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:08 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

A freeze of this magnitude has been well documented many times in this area. It only stands to reason it was going to happen again. I don't think it's a question of if but how bad. It's all about the snow/ice cover I think at this point and how fast the skies clear.
by TexasMetBlake
Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:03 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

GFS is definitely a worse-case scenario and it seems too unbelievable to be true. Not saying it can't happen but that's a perfect storm of heavy snow or ice accumulations and a clearing sky like Andrew alluded to. Strong radiational cooling could in theory cause our temps to tank to near all-time lo...
by TexasMetBlake
Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

Here's a look at the raw GFS output for IAH. Highs in the 20s and a low of 9 degrees. Not quite 1989 but darn close.
by TexasMetBlake
Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:20 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

This is quickly becoming very concerning and a major disaster. I've never in my career seen models forecast this type of cold here, ever. I was too young to remember 1989 but this goes beyond 1989. This is more along the lines of 1899 or worse. I'm very concerned about the potential for a prolonged ...
by TexasMetBlake
Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:56 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

I think the NAM will offer up a more realistic idea of what temperatures we may see. Arctic air is tricky and may be colder than models are advertising. Although I do find it strange that the GFS was so cold with "only" a 1047 mb high over the northern plains. Seems lightweight. We've push...
by TexasMetBlake
Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

The Dallas AFD acknowledges the GFS regarding the biggest arctic outbreak since 1989. Good read. They're definitely not discounting the GFS completely. Waiting to see the Houston AFD. I see Houston has tanked our high for Sunday, too.
by TexasMetBlake
Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:10 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

Man, if the GFS/CMC are correct, that would be a 1989 type freeze with a 1983 duration. The "best" of both worlds. That would spell disaster for Texas with crops and pipes. I'm still not ready to bite on such extreme solutions but man, this is incredible.
by TexasMetBlake
Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:37 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

Well, if you want cold weather, the 12z GFS will make you smile. Wow. Has snapped back to a very cold run. Major winter storm on Saturday with highs in the 20s heading into Sunday.
by TexasMetBlake
Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:59 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 700950

Re: February 2021

00z Euro says no dice on the cold for the third run in a row. Sigh..