Looks like TD #12 in the EPac may create some trouble this weekend for those of us in soaked parts of south central and southeast Texas. I believe the word "mischief" is appropriate ... one of srainhoutx's faves.

If the latest HRRR is to be believed, it shows things gradually weakening over the Houston area and almost nothing by 2AM. I'm suspicious of that, however. The HRRR has really struggled this weekend in Texas as I've been following it closely. NWS folks have told me in the past that short-range mode...

Just a little post to put this anomalously warm "winter" in perspective ... on average, Austin has 19 days where the temperature goes below freezing. So far this winter season we have had ONE day when we hit 31 degrees.

Hit 86 degrees here in Austin at Camp Mabry (KATT) at 3:15 pm, easily shattering the record high for this date of 83 set in 1911. It was probably helped by the West Texas dry line which slipped into town and kinda bisected the metro area with the temp rising 4 degrees and dew point dropping 14 degre...

That is true, srainhoutx . There is also a fire weather danger today in west Texas and stretching into parts of central Texas by Tuesday. It's hard to believe it's there after having the state's wettest year on record ... but NWS offices are expressing concern due to high winds, low humidity, and de...

The 0z and 6z GFS operational runs have backed off on the winter storm scenario for the Feb 9-11 period. However, the 0z Euro operational run lays down a swath of 1-2" of snow across much of south central Texas in that period. The CMC remains bullish as well. The signals are clearly there for a...

Thanks for the upate, srain.

Over the last approximate 120 years, Austin has recorded 51 snowfalls. Some of the largest ones have occurred in February, including the last snowfall of significance (1" or more) which happened on Valentines Day 2004 ... when 1.6" fell on the city.

Analog-schmanalog! I got flowers and plants blooming here in Austin and they think it's March already.

"Winter" has been a no-show here in Austin. I hope that changes soon. We can't even get any rain as El Nino shut off its spigot around Christmas (at least for us).

The 0z European model should it verify would lay down 3" of snow across all of Travis County and the metro Austin area late next weekend. Higher snow amounts in the central and southern Hill Country. Wow! Does it show any for SE Texas? As a matter of fact, yes! Trace to 1" amounts and mor...

The 0z European model should it verify would lay down 3" of snow across all of Travis County and the metro Austin area late next weekend. Higher snow amounts in the central and southern Hill Country. Wow!

thats not bad at all...for me, anyway. Just for grins I checked out the temperatures on the 12z GFS for Decatur, Alabama (north Alabama) for that period you will be there. I see highs on Jan. 14-15 around 40 degrees with lows in the mid 20s. Temps then warm up a bit with high temps around 50 and lo...

I sure would like to know...I am heading to N. Alabama Jan 14-18 to visit a friend. We are planning on fishing...lol Ice fishing or ... :D Seriously IMUO (In My Uneducated Opinion) I don't see how northern Alabama escapes the below-to much below normal airmass during that period. Other thing that w...

Wonderfully informative post above srain ... thank you! You did a superb job of taking complex information and boiling it down to a level we all can understand. It does appear that many of the atmospheric indices are pointing towards a cold and stormy period for Texas from mid month on. I'm with you...

With the Formula 1 race taking place this weekend at Austin's Circuit of the Americas, there will be tens of thousands of folks coming from all over the world for a three day, outdoor event in an area with low water crossings that's prone to flash flooding. This could be a real mess. F1 will race i...

Numerous reports of high water throughout downtown Austin as well as north central and east central parts of the metro area. Anywhere from 1-3" of rain has fallen in these areas in the last few hours.

The prospects of a nocturnal core rain event in or just to the northeast of the Austin metro area tomorrow night is a real concern. Don't like that path at all.

NHC just tweeted no advisories at 4 p.m. our time. Next aircraft in system at 8 p.m.

0z models have it going more south to Corpus now. Thoughts? A center reformation could take place at anytime to change things though. That trend certainly caught my attention as south central Texas would be more in the crosshairs. I think until a true LLC forms it will be tough to pin down an exact...

dumb question but I'll ask it anyway.... Earlier today, forecasters said that there was very little chance of the disturbance turning into a hurricane. Has they changed their minds about that now? Paul, in short: no. At this time the expectation is for a tropical storm. Key phrase "at this tim...

We picked up close to an inch and a half in an hour or so earlier today here in SW Austin.