west versus the Southwest. Which is why I think areas further to the east have a much larger ice threat than we do, where their flow will be more out of the SW with a higher reliance on overrunning rather than lift ahead of the shearing upper low. The GFS wants 6" of snow across coastal AL/MS,...

Honestly it shows especially when you see the difference between the nam and NAM-hi res. It is becoming evident that the hi res models are doing a better job at picking up on the smaller things. The disturbances transitioning west across the state are small in nature and are giving most models issu...

mcheer23 wrote:

I noticed they raised precip chances to 60-70 percent.....Have the fz rain/sleet changing to snow and sleet..Seem pretty confident..

Confident on frozen precip, not so much what type, where, and how much (understandably)....

Same goes for the NAM. Gfs was the driest at first and now it is one of the wettest. That's true. The NAM was phased and juiced up. Now everything is slightly out of phase And we're 48 hours out. Another example of models doing a poor job during extreme events. They just can't handle them well sinc...

It's interesting to me that the CMC was the first model to really show the potential of this event, at times showing extreme snows across the area, but now it is the driest... The 0z CMC has very little QPF compared to the other models, and seems to be having a hard time with the track of the upper ...

GFS has up to 3" across the area.

David Paul you gambler, you... Must not be too worried about a few hours of freezing rain/ sleet to start that may knock down potential snow totals

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Unlike 2011, location of 850 mb freezing line is *almost* perfect for who gets snow or not.

My back yard is on the wrong side...

I'm a stats guy, so it kind of bums me out that the midnight temperature on tuesday may screw us of a high temperature below freezing. The GFS has us in the upper 30s at midnight dropping into the 20s in the afternoon. A low wednesday morning in the teens/low 20s, so a record low is at least possible.

This looks like a high impact event front Eastern Texas to the Carolinas. Also the 00Z GFS has trended 'wetter' with QPF in the .50+ range and that extends back into the Austin/San Antonio area as well. Over 1 inch QPF is over the Southern half of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama into Georgia and So...

ronyan wrote:The 0z NAM looks aggressive with precip for the Houston area.

It was just ever so slightly slower with the upper low. Less widespread qpf and just a tad warmer. Closed off longer and drags its feet. We really don't want this to slow down any more...

Texaspirate11 wrote:I just want to put in my request for a hot summer NOW.

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As long as it actually rains this summer

The 18Z GEFS mean total QPF through 72 hours was nearing the .65 mark with higher totals toward Beaumont/Lake Charles. New Orleans was above the 1 inch amount+. For our friends further east, some of that may be quite a bit of ice. NWS Mobile was talking about ice accumulations approaching 0.75"...

am i seeing this right? wxman actually being positive about cold and snow? i never thought i would see this day.,,,,,jeff being negative and wxman being positive. thank you wxman Hey AZ! I see you fixed your CAPS LOCK! Good for you! We just don't want this disturbance to close off over the Baja and...

Tireman, Andrew, what's up?

It's been way too long, huh. Hope all is well with you guys

It should snow around here more often. Brings us all together, boy I tell you what.

We've been through some busted winter events on here; hopefully, this one is the one. So far so good...

Hmmm, not sure where you are seeing the 17. The GFS MOS 18z run has 19 at IAH. The 12z NAM has 25 Tues. night. Dewpoints are forecast to drop to 13 at IAH. If we have decent snow pack or ice we may easily break through 19---coldest since Feb. 1996. The 17 comes from the 2m temp forecast And also......

Watch issued for the NW counties of SE TX, just outside of Houston...

Whilst everyone's asleep around here, the SPC is about to issue a severe thunderstorm watch for our area. The storms have caught up to the outflow boundaries and are beginning to bow...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1353.html

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1047 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 .UPDATE... UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST CONTINUES TO RACE THIS WAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH AND LOWER POPS ...

Here are the reports so far tonight: All hail, except for an unconfirmed report of a tornado in Liberty County 1259 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0905 PM HAIL SNOOK 30.49N 96.47W ...

We even have a tornado warning now for Eastern Montgomery