0z HWRF - I actually thought the HWRF would shift south a bit, but that is pretty much the same as the 18z run Same here. It even shows a fairly good heading towards San Antonio at hr 96. This is very similar to the 0z CMC http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_n...

hmm parallel GFS sends it back out to sea: Check the 850 vorticity. The main low has moved well inland by that point. That is just leftover low pressure in the Gulf Also Tyler you know it is too early to say who is the winner and is almost foolish. I believe that a Texas strike is very well possibl...

hmm parallel GFS sends it back out to sea: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_126l.gif Also Tyler you know it is too early to say who is the winner and is almost foolish. I believe that a Texas strike is very well possible and what if the Euro shifts north t...

Mr. T wrote:The parallel GFS shifted south and shows a landfall south of Brownsville

OP GFS looks the same, Upper Texas Coast hit

Thing is it still has the trof digging hard

Operational GFS south of Galveston:

OLD GFS through 36 hours:

GFS is starting and the latest track shows a NW movement.

This thing ain't movin.... Not good at all

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

This thing looks like it's almost on shore, on the coast of Mexico. I don't see how there's any way it can come north. Never say never but, never.... I'd not worry if I were a Houstonian. Maybe the next one. We'll probably eat some rain from it, probably it. I'm not even an amatuer so don't flame m...

Mr. T wrote:The 0z NAM takes Alex northwestward toward the TX/MX border and stalls it offshore

Terrible run. Has it go there then south then east....

Speaking of that do y'all need donations? Would that help sustain the forum during high traffic and bandwidth periods? Luckily we're spending KHOU's money here! LOL I understand I just also remember khou's attempts to stop the forums and I just didn't know if this was another one of their attempts....

Speaking of that do y'all need donations? Would that help sustain the forum during high traffic and bandwidth periods? Luckily we're spending KHOU's money here! LOL I understand I just also remember khou's attempts to stop the forums and I just didn't know if this was another one of their attempts.

Hopefully wxdata has a ball of string and bailing wax ready... :mrgreen: In total there are 51 users online :: 13 registered, 3 hidden and 35 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes) Chewing gum and duct tape- works every time. If push comes to shove, I guess we could always fire up t...

Some assistance from the night crew for the full package update and intermediate advisories would be appreciated in the NHC Outlook thread. Big night ahead. ;) Night crew will be here....I have got 3 shiners down me...its going to be a fun night... :lol: Sounds like a fun night I know 2k is going t...

Mr. T wrote:That pressure may be suspect... We'll see

Well some have been saying that the pressure is already lower then normal around that area so that could be contributing to the low pressure.

Maybe the GFS wasn't so crazy after all with the trof:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

A little south of Houston:




Also this is the old version

Mr. T wrote:18z GFS is going to Brownsville

You can notice the difference in the upper levels by day 2 between the 12z and 18z runs...

No it isn't:

sleetstorm wrote:Tropical Storm Alex is still traveling nearly due west. Time is gradually running out for that thing to move closer to Texas and Louisiana.

It is actually moving northwest

From AFM on 2k (should help with the movement conflict): Shorter term motion is more to the NW. 6 hr motion is 305...3 hour motion is 330. Looking at the vis loop...the overall system is really moving NW. I think there is some bouncing around of the LLC...but overall...its headed NW. Also...the feat...