still a good cap to overcome. Never turn your back on a boundary in a tropical air mass...but capping continues to hold convection down. Vis satellite shows increasing breaks...but not sure we will be able to break the cap. Meso guidance not very excited about convection.

Several meso models really blast the area overnight with a W to E training line. Tremendous rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hr on top of wet grounds equals a dangerous flash flood setup.

I stress....Turn Around Don't Drown. We must make a strong effort to prevent flood fatalities in vehicles.

Pattern setup this weekend into early next week is getting concerning with respect to heavy rainfall and flash flooding. 00Z GFS crushes the area with rainfall late Sunday-early Tuesday showing 9.23 inches at IAH. I would not believe this amount nor this run...but the overall consensus is big rains ...

10 inches or more in parts of Harris County is possible. I'm thinking widespread amounts in the 4-6 inch range Tue-Thu. Peak rainfall in the county could top 10". Wednesday is not going to be a pleasant weather day. Careful on the roadways, there will be flooding. Rainfall of that magnitude in...

Speaking of severe weather, this may interest folks...especially those in flood zones. http://www.texastribune.org/events/2016/03/03/protecting-houston-before-the-next-big-storm How do you have a discussion of hurricane impacts with a panel of non-meteorologists. It certainly does not take a TC to ...

Canadian gets nasty in days 1-15...Canadian cold then the Euro again cold but now colder then Canadian 11-16???? It's obvious the warming in the attic leading to blocking and BAMM! My question is, because I can only understand so much, is how cold do we get? I mean it looks pretty dang cold and sti...

The simple answer to your first question is yes...if snow is still widespread and on the ground over NW TX come late week, but I think that may be a stretch since daytime temperatures will be above freezing the next few days. Two: models may or may not fully grasp snow cover on the ground and the im...

The weather really blows right now. The weeds in my yard are going crazy and the mosquitoes are biting and I'm being forced to keep the air conditioner running. I hope we get some kind of arctic transition to take hold and soon. The cold is coming...Sunday is the transition day from summer to winte...

Models continue to support very impressive moisture levels once again across the area both early next week and toward the end of next week and next weekend. PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches in mid to late December is almost unheard of...in other words summer time moisture with winter time dynamics. This is a f...

After a week of hyping tornadoes, severe wind and possibly hail this thing blows in like a lamb for most of us. Not even a clap of thunder here on the NW side of Houston. Biggest issue appears to have been capping from the SW which several of the high resolution models were indicating. Capping was ...

00Z EC & 12Z GFS indicate heaviest rain staying north of Houston this weekend. Less than 1" of rain predicted for Houston by them. Fine with me. The models were way underdone last weekend both in C and SE TX. PWS 1.8-2.1 inches support heavy rainfall especially with a front stalling...but ...

Quick question Jeff (since nothing in our weather world is going on). You state, "can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas." I thought we are currently in an El Nino pattern which will be leading into a cold n wet late fall/winter season? That is what I hear all t...

A warm Atlantic (note the impressive warming since June) and a continued warm Gulf of Alaska region support southern plains drought...ie same pattern we have been in for years. Big question is can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas. On a side note...conditions for the 2016...

I think we will see something...at least a TD and maybe a TS. It is mid September and a little bit more of an unusual possible track up from the SSW...but has happened before. Coastal winds will start increasing due to PGF this weekend post front and thus the tides will start to respond. Very low Td...

NO upgrade at 800pm...might as well wait until it is inland now!

Tweet from the Director of the National Hurricane Center (https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/) at 12:50pm EDT on Monday: "Gulf system exemplifies why we’re developing future option to issue TC forecasts and warnings before TC formation. http://ow.ly/2btvEY" Get on with it already...this is a...

Voluntary evacuations of 10 subdivisions below Lewis Creek Dam.

See www.mctxoem.org for details and map of affected areas

About as serious of a flood threat as this area has seen in a while. Global models really pound the area with high QPF. EURO shows upwards of 7 inches over Houston area Sunday PM-Monday...ouch. GFS shows 2-3 inches. With rivers at their breaking points, and lakes full flooding is almost certain even...

KCLL special sounding will you interpret that for us novices Andrew - muchas gracias Yea, it basically shows an overall favorable profile for all three types of severe weather. Plenty of CAPE for strong updrafts for hail (and wind) with a vertical wind profile that supports the possibility for torn...

QPF has been pumped up some this evening...2-4" widespread with isolated up to 6. HIRES guidance really likes the US 59 corridor from Wharton to Houston for some hefty totals. Rainfall of this magnitude could put the San Bernard and Tres Palacios into flood and result in some pretty good rises ...