Second pass/fix shows an ever so slight pressure drop. Definitely not enough to warrant an upgrade. Should get another pass or two but likely will have to wait for the mission tonight before there is any upgrade.

Recon so far has been unimpressive though that's not surprising. Definitely isn't a depression yet but could be close enough to begin PTC advisories. The latest set of obs might be enough. Should know in the next 30 min if they decide to go with a PTC.

It's still quite disorganized but is at least beginning to look like a tropical system with some curvature taking shape around the overall system. Nice initial coordinates from yesterday for the recon flight (O) later today with the area just to the e and drifting w trying to take hold. Web capture_...

Definitely looks like Houston and points east of there are gonna get some pretty good rain. If it continues to dip to the SW and the energy doesn't fully transfer to the convention to the n before it begins to lift then I think down your way and towards Matagorda could see some decent rain. If it t...

They have a cone for the ptc out by the Caribbean. It is moving too fast to have a closed circulation and isn't a cyclone yet. The same could be done with our little system at the discretion of nhc. Correct. PTC 2 is another perfect example and was initiated because of the potential threat to the s...

Which point do they start issuing a track/cone? I know its too early, but if we now have model plots shouldn’t a cone be created also soon. I know some changes were made over the last year or so but just curious. TIA A few years back they started what's called PTC advisories. Even if a closed circu...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:14 pm djmike they wont put out a cone until a closed low forms, but I see why you would ask that though

This is misleading and incorrect.

don wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:53 am6z models

Slight correction...

This is 6z 'guidance' based off the 0z runs.

6z HWRF actually is further up the coast towards the Bay/Bolivar though there is no dominant center so both it and the HMON show some large jumps.

12z 'guidance' will likely move up the coast a bit.

I wonder who is on the desk tonight for this advisory.

Was probably a fun one to write up.

Generally there is no sense in checking modeling this close to landfall but with how this storm has behaved and how the GFS has anticipated some of the reformations. Here we go... 12z GFS tries on last reformation to the ne but doesn't quite pull it off. It does pull it further ne through landfall ...

TXWeatherMan wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:47 pm Anybody have the 12z Euro?

Matagorda Bay. But it initialized at the center from earlier this morning and is looking a little to far w.

Generally there is no sense in checking modeling this close to landfall but with how this storm has behaved and how the GFS has anticipated some of the reformations. Here we go... 12z GFS tries on last reformation to the ne but doesn't quite pull it off. It does pull it further ne through landfall a...

Surfside will be under water in a few hours. Surprised they haven't already shut it down at 523 by now.

Well early into the recon mission and Nicholas is a mess. The original center is quite weak and the area to the ne i've been tracking is attempting to build a core. At least with recon in there we will have an idea in an hour or so.

Gradual pressure falls as recon heads towards the area I think where it could be trying to reform or the original circulation is at least being tugged that way towards the stronger convection as Andrew mentioned.

Also a few obs at flight level around 60 kts.

I know I should wait for recon but I can't help myself. :) Either a reformation to the ne is starting to take place and there will be a track adjustment at 10. Or the current center is having issues and drifting to the e before resuming a heading on the current track and delaying landfall by about 3...

Storm still seems off to me...

Anyways recon is finally headed towards the storm and will alleviate whatever I think I'm seeing.

Fwiw both hurricane models had a fairly decent shift up the coast being this close to landfall. HWRF shows a reformation like the GFS.

For a minute I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me and there was another center reformation to the e. Looked that way on satellite but you can still see the current center on BRO radar. But I go back to yesterday and some of the crazy pinball movements in the GFS and sure enough the 6z GFS has...

The track shifted a little to the left of Port O Connor. The 10pm advisory was to the right of Palacios and right near the nuclear plant s of Bay City.

Recon is doing a traditional flight pattern collecting obs so it's talking a little longer. Now heading back towards the center and should get a new fix and if there's any pressure drop in about 30 min.