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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:48 pm cperk yup! Its either a massive bust or a huge W for the GFS, but I counted the model runs in a row that have shown this kind of a solution, 19 straight model runs from the GFS, absolutely crazy

That is crazy.

The Euro and the Icon have similar solutions for that system colored in orange both have it west of south Florida around 9/6 to 9/7.

Cpv17 Agreed, ive never seen a model be alone in support yet be this insistent that something will be their, this will be either a huge L by the GFS or an incredible Win for the moxel, granted the NAVGEM also has a similar idea as the GFS, just weaker and obvit not a great model, this consistently ...

That first wave the NHC is monitoring is developing a bit more thunderstorm activity.

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:05 pm The 18z GFS sends another strong hurricane inland just south of south Texas.It just won't let go of this scenario.

The 18z GFS sends another strong hurricane inland just south of south Texas.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 4:42 pm I’m more interested in the second storm out in the Atlantic vs anything in the Gulf or Caribbean at this time but that’s just me lol

I agree.

12z GFS still has a borderline hurricane in the western gulf but gets shoced into mexico, still 10.5 days out, but the model has shown the western gulf looks like the potential target area for this disturbance Yeah the GFS has been windshield wiping but has stayed with the GOM as the area of landfa...

Folks, picking on wxman is a bit unfair considering most meteorologist follow model guidance. That is what he does. That is what he is paid to do. Throwing out weather God titles is a bit of a stretch. When it comes to tropical mischief it is important to live in the day and not rely on long term f...

In regard to WxMan 57, who many of us know personally (me included, as he picks on my FB posts), he does know his stuff. He has forgotten more than I will ever know about Meteorology (especially Tropical). Back in the day, he nailed the Ike landing in Galveston. Does he miss things? Yes. Has he got...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:02 am Well 57 doesn’t really seem the least bit worried about it. He’s basically saying this is just a phantom storm the models are showing. Me personally, I don’t agree with that but I’m just an amateur.

When i visit storm2k i don't bother to read any of his post.

I'm happy with the .85 inches of rain i received today lets keep this wet period going.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 11:31 am The GFS has now completely dropped that caribbean disturbance

I'm not shocked by that at all.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:07 am I know its a long way off, and its the GFS...still

Yeah the Icon takes the southern route and the GFS takes a more northern route.

Well... Mr. iCylone and myself have been half *** chatting about a potential Caribbean system the last day or so that could be in a position to enter the gulf. Now we're both getting even more intrigued. Go figure it's again the ICON leading the way.... Are you referring to the system the GFS has e...

I like the way i have been getting rain not all at one time varying amounts per day and not at one time giving time for it to soak in.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:21 pm Yay me! Got a big ole fat donut hole!

I got a nice soaker.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:05 am Geez, that disturbance over the Yucatán/Guatemala looks really impressive right now. I could definitely see it developing once it gets back over water.

You are right it looks impressive over land lets see what it does once it immerges over the southern GOM.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 7:48 pm Ensembles are starting to trend much wetter for us. Looks pretty promising!

Yeah i not buying it until i see rain falling from the sky this may just well be another Lucy and the football.

I think this disturbance is going to get shoved into mexico, looking at the ensembles, they have a ridge building into the eastern GOM, not going to allow this system to get that far north, I know I said its too early, but I don’t like that ridge in the eastern GOM, this spells big time shafted aga...

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