Thats so far out though, i personally dont really start watching systems until they get in the NW caribbean, thats when my interest goes up because they cant just turn out to sea, they would have to effect land somewhere

sambucol i havent heard any talk about that, even if idalia loops back around into the gulf again, it will be very weak, but i dont see a threat to texas from it

Its so nice to finally have a birthday where nothing crazy goes on in the weather world!

sambucol not likely, the ridge is pretty far north, so it would just steer it back into florida and then just move in land, plus their is a trough digging down in the central us so even if it got into the gulf it would likely just get pushed into lousiana or the eastern gulf again

Even more Bad news for florida, the CMC now joins the GFS in showing a loop back towards florida and the gulf, big ridge builds in and blocks this from moving out, some members of the GEFS even show redevelopment in the gulf again, crazy!

That is an interesting run by the GFS, loops Idalia back into the gulf as its exit gets blocked by high pressure

Surge could be devastating in that area, some of those areas like tampa could see surge they have never seen ever, my prediction is a cat 4, im definitely also really concerned with the western gulf down the road, harold did little to mix up the waters

That model has been awful with genesis this year, hard to trust the GFS beyond 5 days lol

weatherguy425 oh no i agree, i just kinda like making fun of the models, especially the GFS with its crazy fantasy solutions, but I do agree the pattern is their for something

did-get a little bit of light rain, ill take it

Storms fell apart and went around me smh, what a joke

Lol 18z GFS,
up to more of its shenanigans as usual

DoctorMu so close!! Im doing my best to weaken the aggiedome

Given how the GFS has been absolutely utter garbage with genesis this season, its really hard to trust anything that model shows lol

Euro has a weak trough that develops over Texas and kind of just stays their as it gets trapped between two ridges, interesting scenario

captainbarbossa19 interesting from the UKmet, think the wave the GFS is picking up on is pretty far south near CA, interesting to see the ridge doesnt build over texas again at least during the time the GFS has the wave approaching CA or the yucatan, so their may be room for a system to lift north i...

The GFS keeps at least a chance for scattered storm’s throughout the next 10 days with a weakened ridge off to our west, fingers crossed

GEFS has a bit of a signal for something else in the western caribbean behind this eastern gulf system at hour 240

Rain chances look decent in the models, fingers crossed

Something to watch for is this weak front that models are in agreement on that will steer the caribbean system towards florida, models have the front pushing off shore, and some of the guidance( CMC) now starting to hint at a bit of a weak low pressure trying to form in the BOC, just a hint, but som...