Search found 3335 matches

by Andrew
Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:43 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: March 2022
Replies: 578
Views: 119363

Re: March 2022

The intial broken line that is expected to develop this afternoon is going to be something to closely watch across Central Texas as the ceiings remain pretty high in regards to tornadic capabilities. SRH between 0-1km is in the neighborhood of 300-400 m2 / s2 range over that region and while CAPE is...
by Andrew
Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:58 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

For anyone interested here is a GIF (click it to make it work) for the 2m temp trend over the last couple of days. Pretty incredible how much further south the front pushed. Based on forecasts two days ago most of the Houston area should be in the mid 60s/ low 70s right now instead of the 30s.
by Andrew
Tue Feb 22, 2022 8:12 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Could someone explain why we would not have the greater Houston area temperatures not climb out of the 30s. Instead of predicted highs of 40s and 50s? I thought this was an Arctic front that would give us colder weather that what is not expected. Cold air no matter the origin will still see some mo...
by Andrew
Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:07 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Pretty amazing how far off the global models were with the stalling of this front. Instead of being in the upper 70s / low 80s tomorrow, most locations will be 30-40 degrees colder with temps in the 40-50s during the late morning and struggling to get any warmer than that during the afternoon. The g...
by Andrew
Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:27 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

It could be interesting midweek as models continue to show the frontal boundary stalling across the central part of SE Texas. If the GFS is right on Thursday places like College Station could be in the 30s while the Houston area could be in the 70s. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the fro...
by Andrew
Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:21 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Maybe a few ice pellets but only rain so far in nw Houston.
by Andrew
Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:26 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Seeing more snow reports west of College Station. The freezing line remains near College Station into Columbus. Some reports are coming in of ice across elevated surface eat of La Grange. Looks like the freezing line should approach Houston around sunset or shortly after that with precip ending aro...
by Andrew
Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:07 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Seeing more snow reports west of College Station. The freezing line remains near College Station into Columbus. Some reports are coming in of ice across elevated surface eat of La Grange. Looks like the freezing line should approach Houston around sunset or shortly after that with precip ending arou...
by Andrew
Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:45 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Looks like Austin is dropping below freezing now so freezing rain will increase in concern as we move through the day. For those across SE Texas it's going to likely be a race between the precipitation ending and temps getting below freezing, especially SE of the College Station into Brenham and Col...
by Andrew
Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:14 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Winter wx advisories have been posted for the NW part of the region as models yesterday and overnight have trended for additional moisture to linger behind. It should be interesting to see how far south the freezing line dips before moisture ends.
by Andrew
Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:36 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Andrew do you think we could have any potential issues in college station? It does seem the global model’s do bring in some wintry weather as the NWS has bought in for my area, just curious as we are only 3 days or so out, just wanna be precautious fwiw I think CLL will be on the border of winter p...
by Andrew
Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:36 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Looks like the freezing mark will likely set up around the College Station region into Bastrop. Along and north of State Highway 21 looks like the best call at this point. It still looks like the warm nose won't get eroded until late in the day so freezing rain/ice pellets look like the most likely ...
by Andrew
Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:28 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

kyzsl51 wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:27 pm How accurate has the cmc been?
Usually, it struggles especially with being too aggressive with temps/winter wx.
by Andrew
Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:09 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

The latest couple of runs from the GFS have trended towards the ECMWF solution with a slightly more modified airmass pushing through the region. The upper-level trough continues to flatten out with a large chunk of the energy shearing off over New Mexico into western Texas. Both models indicate that...
by Andrew
Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:00 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Oz GFS brings Houston back into snow depth coverage later in the day on Friday. Anyone know whether the profile would support all snow? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2022&model_mm=01&model_dd=31&model_init_hh=00&fhour=114&...
by Andrew
Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:39 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Oz GFS brings Houston back into snow depth coverage later in the day on Friday. Anyone know whether the profile would support all snow? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2022&model_mm=01&model_dd=31&model_init_hh=00&fhour=114&...
by Andrew
Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:32 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Not seeing much of a change today. It still looks like frozen precipitation will remain north and west of the region. Likely a pretty significant system for Central and North Texas with a lot of ice and sleet. More than likely just cold rain for most of us down here. The GFS still detaches some of ...
by Andrew
Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:21 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2022
Replies: 867
Views: 169563

Re: January 2022

GFS and other global models have shifted north with the surface low and more of Central SE Texas looks under the bullseye. GFS is showing a pretty good chunk of the region receiving a quick 2-3 inches. Obviously, we won't know the exact specifics until a couple of hours out but something to watch go...
by Andrew
Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:18 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2022
Replies: 1249
Views: 255773

Re: February 2022

Not seeing much of a change today. It still looks like frozen precipitation will remain north and west of the region. Likely a pretty significant system for Central and North Texas with a lot of ice and sleet. More than likely just cold rain for most of us down here. The GFS still detaches some of t...
by Andrew
Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:22 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2022
Replies: 867
Views: 169563

Re: January 2022

For Monday's storm models have the upper-level shortwave trough dipping further south and the coastal low developing further southeast across the GOM. As a result, a lot of the convection associated with a possible MCS may stay further south and west than initially anticipated. One more thing to kee...