A wet Christmas weekend. Not often it happens.

Has anyone noticed how the predictions about cold coming to Houston get quickly deflated, and reinstated for a later date? Remember the initial conversation was about mid to late December. Next was late December to early January. We are already taking about late January into February. There is a pa...

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 2.0ºC
Niño 3 2.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed, except for Region 4. Region 4 remains the same from last week.

I’ve never been a huge Nino fan like most on here and Storm2K. We are little too far south to benefit from a good Nino. Dallas to OKC is your sweet spot for a Nino. We need a weak Modoki to squeeze anything out of the frozen variety. Consider me a fan of neutral ENSO or weak Nina’s more for Winter ...

What’s the latest date of Houston’s first freeze? Have we ever had a freeze less winter? I used this to see Houston first and last freeze. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx Houston's latest first freeze is March 9, 1932. It snowed that time in March 1932. Turns out Houston did not have a ...

Sunspot Region Produces X2.8 Flare, Largest Since Sep 10, 2017
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/sunspot- ... ep-10-2017

Strong solar flare has arrived.

Talk about a bust right there.

Extremely Rare Southeast Pacific Subtropical Cyclone Forms Off the Chilean Coast https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/hurricane/news/2018-05-08-subtropical-cyclone-chile This article is from 2018. The Southeast Pacific off the west coast of South America does not see tropical cyclone developm...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 11:30 am I can feel another bust coming, wouldn’t be surprised lol

The bust can go either way.

Nice to see cooler weather. It should of been on a weekend.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 1.9ºC
Niño 3 2.0ºC
Niño 1+2 1.3ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled, while Region 3 remains the same. Region 1+2 dropped a lot from last week.

Post El Nino seasons are usually active.

Defining those terms is a slippery slope. Machine Learning is a subcomponent of AI and the models have been incorporating machine learning for decades now. The way the models were built in the first place isn’t very different from machine learning. Conceptually it’s the same - you get a set of init...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:58 am Need to watch the 14-16th timeframe next week, ensemble guidance is getting pretty interesting across the state

I have seen forecast models suggesting storms next week.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.7ºC
Niño 3.4 2.0ºC
Niño 3 2.0ºC
Niño 1+2 2.1ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 cooled.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 2.1ºC
Niño 3 2.3ºC
Niño 1+2 2.0ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 remain the same. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 1:29 pm Cpv17 yeah the EPO really tanks, we will see about that though, so far out

A tanking East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) increases chance for cold blasts. I have seen negative EPO and positive NAO and cold blasts happening.

NWS Houston Area Forecast Discussion https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HGX&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000 FXUS64 KHGX 202255 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 455 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 ...New AV...

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 1.9ºC
Niño 3 2.1ºC
Niño 1+2 2.0ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. All other regions warmed.