I am signing off tonight and may not be on much tomorrow unfortunately as I'll be tied up. Nonetheless, here is the latest update from HGX. Hmmm... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 .UPDATE... Hi-res models continue to arrive increasing...

00z Euro says lets hop onto the southern trend.. ;) Poor Dallas folks. While I hope we see some snow (the only thing daytime highs in the 30s are good for), I feel for them as it was looking like a blockbuster event up there for them. Unfortunately the ULL is further south and west by a notch and th...

When you mention the possibility of heavy wet snow for “Houston,” are you referring to the city itself or other areas outside city limits like Cypress, Tomball, etc? The images I posted was about a ~40 mile diameter center plotted in downtown Houston depicting the thermal profile with a saturated l...

00z GFS is intriguing. If it were to verify, Houston could briefly see some heavy wet snow between 6-9pm before we start drying out. I've also been following the ULL since it moved onto the west coast and going back and comparing to the model suites. It seems to continue digging a bit further south ...

Why is herzog pushing this so hard? I guess he isnt looking at the nam or he is being conservative and waiting to see what tomorrow shows...he did say "we will see how this map changes in the coming days" I personally don't see anything wrong with it. Travis likes to keep generally the sa...

Meanwhile, SE Texas is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7pm.... We sure are - URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for...

If the 00z GFS were to verify, it would be a cold rain mixed with snow, especially if you're north of I-10. Temperatures below freezing down to around 950-960mb (~2000 ft). With a below freezing and a saturated lower-mid level column, wet-bulbing would likely help cool the surface down enough for so...

My hunch is the SPC will upgrade parts of SETX into a slight risk category tomorrow. Damaging winds (60+ mph) look to be the main threat as the thunderstorms move through along the front. For those that go into work, stay weather aware as it will likely roll through near rush hour tomorrow evening. ...

How does all of this look for Colorado Springs for 9th-13th? My daughter will be there. Thanks. Tell your daughter to bundle up as the first day will likely be the coldest. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing with some snow showers throughout the day, maybe totaling 1-2" before mo...

Question...my daughter will be going to Colorado Springs from Jan 10-15. Can anyone look into their crystal ball and see what she may expect there..snow chances....etc....i know its still a ways off though...thanks! Looked at all four runs of today's GFS since it gets into that extended timeframe. ...

Drew this up for a friend so thought I would post it here as well (black line is just I-10 & 45 for relation; blue line is where front currently is). Screen Shot 2020-12-30 at 2.50.55 PM.png Front looks to be where it should be, maybe running ever so slightly ahead of normal. However, it is slow...

I think the next couple of weeks will at least be exciting to watch as an active pattern looks to remain through the rest of 2020. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) looks to remain negative allowing for numerous troughs to dig into the US with plenty of energy in the Pacific coming in. The issue will be w...

The official end of the 2020 hurricane season. YAY! Good riddance to it. However, there were several unique storms this year. This should keep those on the research side busy for years to come. Now with Hanna and Beta making landfall along the TX coast, I'm expecting some snow this winter.... ;) 12...

As is usually the case with these densely cold air masses, it is a bit ahead of schedule than what the global models (GFS/Euro) showed. 00z runs still had the front along I-35. It's currently just pushing through Brenham. CLL in upper 50s. Front should begin entering western Harris Co. after dusk an...

Karen wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:45 pm Can admins delete these post wanting more deviation really upsetting to see someone loose everything. My prayers are with the people in the path of the storm

I've already taken action on it.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:42 pm Some people have to have a pretty good setup in their mom's basement to troll a weather board.

Ignore comments like the ones that were made. I have removed the post. Comments like that to do not belong on here for those who have suffered from previous storms.

GFS moved literally maybe a couple miles east, but 06 and 12z still indicate a Port Arthur landfall. Still seems a hair west of NHC.


06z:

12z:

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:11 am Looks like the track didn't move .....again

Track hasn't been updated yet. They usually update things in increments within about 10 minutes. Usually public advisory is first, Discussion and then the track is one of the latter updates.

06z GFS coming in with a much stronger ridge. Very similar to the 00z Euro.

GFS makes landfall near Port Arthur. Just ever so slightly west from the 00z run.

I'd be surprised if mandatory evacuations weren't issued before noon for those along the coast.


FWIW: 06z ICON is further west than yesterday runs. High Island landfall.