URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM UNTIL 500 AM...

No big changes in thinking this morning after looking over the 12z model progs. Excessive rainfall/flooding continue to look like the greatest threats with isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts coming in second. Model soundings continue to indicate plenty of shear and enough instability for mid...

Whats the mean PW rate in January for Houston? The link below has a nice statistical breakdown of PW values from all of the radiosonde sites around the Nation. Unfortunately there is no site for Houston but I think the Lake Charles data would be a close enough representation of what we see here loc...

You don't see saturation through all levels so precise that often like what the gfs Skew-T is showing. Very impressive. I think this next ULL is going to put the last one to shame. With a sounding like that, we are going to see some very significant rainfall rates even in the more moderate showers....

The 12Z GFS has trended toward the over night Euro/Canadian/UKMet solution suggesting a deepening closed core U/L near the Big Bend Region. Worrisome to see the GFS continue to advertise a posibble meso and if the slower solution is correct, our severe weather chances would be later in the daytime ...

As srain has alluded to, models continue to struggle with next week's pattern as the euro after consistently being the most progressive with the trough has now trended slightly slower than the GFS. After some discussion around the office, I am still inclined to lean toward a more progressive scenari...

The euro ensembles beyond 324hr keep the ridge off the CA coast maybe flattening it a tad bit but with continued toughing across western Canada and a very strong polar vortex (helping maintain a relatively zonal flow pattern across the US), it will be extremely hard to get any type of arctic air too...

Heavy rain threat shifting south into our coastal counties with isolated tornado threat continuing. The latest mesoanalysis indicates low level helicity really picking up over the last hour across southern parts of the region in response to some backing of the surface wind field at Angelton and Galv...

The area where the heaviest rainfall rates are most likely to occur over the next hour look to be across central Montgomery county where IR imagery indicates cloud tops have cooled to -68C over the past 30 min with increasing lightning strikes and convection. Lot's of light to moderate rain extendin...

Locally heavy rain threat looks to be on the increase across areas along and southeast of a Columbus to Conroe to Livingston line. The latest IR satellite imagery shows rapidly cooling cloud tops (cooler than -60 C) associated with increasing elevated convection across central sections of southeast ...

The front can be picked up on radar progressing west to east across far western Harris county. The front has passed through old town Katy and looks to have just passed Cypress (290 and Fry rd. area). High resolution models have been doing an ok job with the handling of the front and associated preci...

Secondary cold front pushing across the city at this time with temperature's falling into the 40's quickly, along with increasing northerly winds. It looks like we may have already seen our high temperatures for the day as clouds and drizzle combined with the stronger cold air advection will likely ...

Have had over 2'' here on the far west side so far today with some good moderate rain continuing. It looks like there is some high water in the northbound lanes of I-45 the gulf freeway at the 610 south loop. Good low level moisture convergence continues to support heavy showers and thunderstorms ac...

Not to get anyone's hopes up too much, but I am possibly seeing some good news in the not too far future...I say possibly because it is still about a week out and we have seen things fall apart only a few days out with this very persistent synoptic pattern in place. Anyways, the extended GFS and ECM...

Lee continues to fight the upper level low centered over the Port Arthur area with all of the convection off on the east side. Even though the atmosphere continues to slowly moisten over the region, subsidence from Lee along with subsidence on the western side of the upper low are not allowing much ...

Does anyone know what caused those showers and thunderstorms to form? These storms can be tracked all the way back to Arkansas early this morning in association with an upper level disturbance riding around the edge of the ridge of high pressure. Extreme daytime heating allowed these storms to hold...

Our eastern and northeastern zones look to have the best chance for rain this afternoon and evening as local RUC analysis indicates a good amount of low level convergence over those locations. The latest radar trends would suggest a slow increase in activity over Polk county. Just your typical isola...

The latest radar data indicates a meso-low currently moving out of Hardin and into southern Polk county associated with the light to moderate rain shield. There could be some gusty winds (20-30mph) associated with this feature before it slowly weakens. Moisture levels are up when compared to yesterd...

Seems like a major "bust" based on projections as recently as a few hours ago. Can this be attributed to (1) the same sounding issues that caused similar busts in winter weather forecasts for our area last year; (2) interactions with the parched ground in the region; or (3) some other rea...

The latest high-res visible satellite imagery clearly shows a vort max slowly drifting west-southwest out of northern Jasper county into northern Tyler county. This feature is currently helping enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity across our northeast zones. We will have to watch to see how ...