The latest HRRR, showing an ugly MCS with hail cores.Storms may start forming as early as midnight in some areas. As the frontal boundary moves into SE Texas and merges with the potent disturbance coming out of Mexico along the subtropical jet. Screenshot 2024-04-09 at 17-37-02 Models HRRR - Pivotal...

New Day 1 SPC outlook extends the hatched area for hail further south. ;) Gonna be interesting to see how far south that line will develop early tomorrow morning. You’d think it would be more of a wind threat than hail since it looks to be a squall line. In the latest update they did add a hatched ...

I bet most of the action will stay to the north like yesterday as the mesocales agree with this idea, im not overly concerned today, maybes tuesday morning could be the time to watch, but overall today should be quiet here locally, central and north texas are a different story though Yep the enhanc...

18Z HRRR

Two severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued.Those are some mean looking cells. A Tornado watch has also been issued for the northern counties. Screenshot 2024-04-08 at 14-36-57 NWS Radar.png ww0090_overview_wou.gif BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National W...

A localized/regional severe weather outbreak is possible tomorrow night.Stay weather aware.

Enhance risk expanded south. ALL modes of severe weather are in play. TX_swody2.png Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

12Z HRRR showing the potent MCS expected late tomorrow night/overnight.

An Enhanced risk has been issued for areas north of I-10.With very large hail being a concern area wide. Strong Tornadoes are also a possibility in northeast portions of SE Texas... Like i said a couple of weeks ago severe weather season is here.Stay weather aware.😉 spcd2caft.us_sc.png spcd2tor.us_s...

Accuweathers analogs for this year shows the upper Texas coast as a hotspot FWIW.

Weird how the CPC has a bullseye on S TX but the models have it over NE TX, AR, and LA. The CPC map is referring to next weekend and beyond,not this weeks storm system.( it starts on April 13th) Most of the rain for SE Texas will come with the MCS Tuesday overnight/Wednesday morning.Especially for ...

The SPC has a large hatched area on the Day 3 outlook. They also mention that an upgrade to the risk area may be needed... spjjcd3cat.us_sc.png spcdtt3prob.us_sc.png Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGH...

spcdg4prob.us_sc.png spcdfd5prob.us_sc.png Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature ...

spcd5prob.us_sc.png spcd6prob.us_sc.png Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models continue to forecast the development of an upper-level low acro...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2024 1:03 pm I’m tired of seeing so many people say “oh they say it’s gonna be busy every year”. That narrative is lazy garbage and people need to educate themselves before they comment on something. Drives me crazy!

I agree!

Cap ture.PNG This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective deve...

Cap ture.PNG This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective deve...

Still far out but I'm watching Tuesday and especially Wednesday of next week for the possibility of a severe weather event locally and east of here. As there are PDS soundings already showing up in the models. As a vigorous impulse moves in along the subtropical jet there looks to be a MCS that will...

I’m seeing some potential for some severe weather once we get past the first week of April. Yep that's the storm system I was referring to the other day.Models today have come in a little more aggressive with the system and show a a large and organized warm sector over a big portion of the state. C...