It is hail. Our air temps were in the mid 60s up until about 10 minutes ago.

I think the front is arriving here in AUS. Rain coming down sideways downtown and gusty winds. Here's hoping the next time it precipitates here, it's frozen and not liquid!

wxdata, glad you posted that. Radar is lighting up just to our north and west here in AUS. Just saw some towering CB just west of town on my way back to the office from lunch.

Thanks for posting srainhoutx . I was going to include the Austin/San Antonio morning AFD in my post here but you saved me the trouble! ;) Gotta give credit where credit is due ... I think this is an excellent discussion that lays out the parameters for the week ahead, at least in the AUS/SAT area.

OT -- Geaux Saints! Happy to see my boy Drew, the Saints, and Wxman57 have great cause to celebrate!

On to the weather -- new NAM has a slightly stronger, deeper upper level system compared to its 12z run.

Ed , keep in mind the normally trusty Euro has been the one to come around to the GFS solution and not vice versa. I'm not suggesting that it's going to sleet or snow in your backyard ... but the Euro has been playing catch-up on this pattern and I would be cautious basing a forecast solely on the ...

kayci wrote:Translation please... re: freeze. I live in Texas City, will I need to cover my plants again this week?

I doubt it will get below freezing in Texas City this coming week.

After a quick perusal at the 12z GFS run, it appears to my untrained eye that the run is a little stronger, slower, and further south (a tad) than the 0z run with the upper level storm coming our way.

Never say neverr SCSLAND and Cloud2ground because you never know. ;) I concur with Portastorm. We may not know what to anticipate as far as temperatures and precipitation until tomorrow, Tuesday, or Wednesday, or even the day of the event itself. 8-) I am praying that southeast Texas does in fact g...

Well, I wouldn't mind hanging my hat on MY local NWSFO office as they now have sleet and snow officially in the Austin-area forecast! .WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...

Here's a GFS meteogram from the 00Z run. Looks a bit warmer and drier than previous runs, particularly so compared to the very cold previous 00Z runs. I still don't think it's got it right. But what it says that cold air is initially in place but the development of a low/wave offshore pumps a lot o...

Well Sleet, as Wxman57 has said on more than one occasion about next week ... none of the modeling can be trusted until Monday or even Tuesday. The normally trusty Euro has had its problems this winter and is, IMHO, no lock. Same with the Canadian.

The run looks a lot like the 0z run. It has gone back to much colder and more precip ... basically saying "game on" for a winter storm threat for much of Texas late next week. I'll refrain from commenting further. ;) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_l.sht...

The 12z Euro says "12z GFS ... you nuts!" ... blasts cold air down the Southern Plains into Texas by Tuesday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

(Long sigh) ... well, after two days of consistently showing a big winter storm for parts of central, west, and north Texas ... the freakin' 12z GFS run is much warmer and says a cold rain for most of us. I guess Wxman57 is right once again in that there is too much model variability to buy into on...

(Long sigh) ... well, after two days of consistently showing a big winter storm for parts of central, west, and north Texas ... the freakin' 12z GFS run is much warmer and says a cold rain for most of us. I guess Wxman57 is right once again in that there is too much model variability to buy into one...

I agree, I didnt have ne problems with the conformation code either. They were actually pretty big letters :shock: When I tried to register yesterday, the numbers/letters were not on a plain background as they are today. There were many horizontal, vertical and diagonal lines and blotches of differ...

The 0z GFS is certainly on board for a major winter storm next week for portions of central, west, and north Texas. The Canadian also in agreement. The trusty Euro is a little less eager with the event and that is bothersome to this poster who believes the Euro is usually money in the bank. In their...

I really see the event next week (late next week that is) being a lot like the current ongoing event in south Texas ... except the surface temps should be 10-15 degrees colder in many spots. Isentropic lift and overrunning will get heavier as we see surface low development off the coast. Perhaps sev...

Thanks Steve for all of your incredible hard work and dedication to making this happen.

A job well done!

I'm here!