July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Re: July 2021

Post by don » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:19 am

Yep I've been noticing that also.Models are showing a broad area of low pressure developing in the eastern gulf off of the frontal boundary and heading in our general direction in a few days.Due to a cutoff low sitting over Baja. Non are showing tc genesis at the moment though,but something to keep an eye on.

Stratton20
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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:09 am

Don I agree it something to watch, Gulf temps are around 86-88 degrees, that is fuel for something to form, definitely something to monitor,12z Icon tries to spin up a depression and head it towards the Texas Border, definitely interesting

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tireman4
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Re: July 2021

Post by tireman4 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:22 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers and a couple thunderstorms already going at the coast
southwest of the TAF sites near Matagorda Bay. Expect them to
expand up the coast towards coastal sites later this morning, then
push inland on the seabreeze this afternoon. Not high enough
confidence for an explicit thunder mention at CLL, but have at
least VCTS for a time everywhere else at some point today.

Not expecting high IFR/MVFR CIGs overnight after thunderstorms
dissipate this evening with ridge building in for the weekend.
But, have FEW/SCT mentions in case.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

A summertime ridge is making its way into the region, as we are in
a transition from the rainy pattern of the past several days into
a hotter and drier setup this weekend. After the stretch we`ve had
lately, it would be no surprise to see people want to take
advantage of the fair weather to spend as much time as possible
outdoors enjoying the sun or do as much delayed outdoor work.
We certainly won`t argue against that urge, though we do want to
make sure that with a sharp increase in temps, folks are thinking
about heat safety. Heat advisories are possible - but even heat
that falls short of those thresholds in this area can be
dangerous if you push your body too hard. Take it easy, stay
hydrated, and keep heat stress out of the arrival of hot and fair
weather.


.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Coastal showers are beginning to form up again very early this
morning, and as of 4am stretch from below Matagorda Bay all the
way up to around San Luis Pass. This should continue to expand up
the coast through the early morning hours. These early showers
will be the initial phase of today`s pattern of showers and
storms that will spread inland through the day, mainly along the
seabreeze.

With ridging gradually building in from the east, I continue the
trend of trimming the highest PoPs closer to the expected location
of the seabreeze boundary, and trim things down even more tomorrow
to slight chance at most as the ridge really begins to take
control of the NW Gulf region. Similarly, I nudge high temps today
up into the lower 90s, and into the lower to middle 90s on
Friday.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

A deep strong ridge should be in place by the weekend, and with it
we will be looking for hot/dry weather across SE TX. As such, heat
safety will be the main concern as forecast high temperatures from
the mid to upper 90s lead to heat index values from 105 to 110 (or
higher) through the afternoon/early evening hours for both Sat and
Sun. Heat Advisories may be needed for this time frame. Be wary of
the potential for heat-related illnesses if outdoors for any exten-
ded periods and remember to stay hydrated.

Otherwise, 00Z long-range guidance currently hinting at the return
of POPs a bit earlier than previous runs. Global models seem to be
focusing on a poorly defined TUTT low approaching us from the east
(via the northern Gulf) with elevated PWs (2.1-2.3") reaching SETX
late Mon afternoon. Not entirely confident of this scenario playing
out this exact way at this time but it does look like the forecast
will be trending back to `wet` by next week. So for now, will keep
POPs in a generally diurnal pattern...kinda starting Mon but prob-
ably more like Tues on into Thurs. With the more tropical air mass
moving in and perhaps more clouds/rain, high temperatures could be
a bit cooler, but will continue to err on the side of warm (mainly
mid 90s inland...lower 90s at the coast).


.MARINE...

A few showers are beginning to redevelop very early this morning
at the Gulf coast. Light, mainly south to southwest winds will
persist through tonight. By tonight, southerly flow will tend to
dominate. The early showers are the beginning to one last pattern
of scattered showers and storms through the afternoon. While not
totally dry, some showers and storms may still be in the picture
Friday. Fair weather is expected this weekend as high pressure
builds into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 91 75 95 75 96 / 20 20 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 76 95 76 96 / 60 30 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 82 93 / 60 10 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:33 pm

Might have to be on gulf watch in the next 6 days potentially, models continue to hint at an area of broad and weak low pressure forming in the gulf before slowly drifting our way by Tuesday or so, 12z ICON is by far the most “aggressive” as it develops a weak tropical depression and sends it our way, none of the other models are showing more than just an area of Low Pressure right now, definitely something to monitor however

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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:03 pm

18z ICON continues to try to spin up an area of low pressure in the gulf around 5.5-6 days from now

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Jul 22, 2021 5:40 pm

Welp. I was just about the mow the back. Thought I had about an hour before potential storms breezed through...when surprise - Rain!

The front lawn got a watering last night and should be very happy.
Attachments
rain.JUL22.jpg

TexasBreeze
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Re: July 2021

Post by TexasBreeze » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:01 pm

Looks like you did really well this evening up there Dr.Mu for a finale for several days! I had a nice heavy one too earlier to wet my plants!

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jasons2k
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Re: July 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:33 pm

I’m glad you got some rain! Especially up there where it really counts!

I feel weird wishing for dry weather, and I can certainly understand why folks would love this pattern to last all summer - normally I would too!! We’re all set to break ground tomorrow. I’m hoping for little rain over the next 6-8 weeks while this puppy gets built :)

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:02 pm

TexasBreeze wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:01 pm
Looks like you did really well this evening up there Dr.Mu for a finale for several days! I had a nice heavy one too earlier to wet my plants!
One last hurrah! Until football season.

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:06 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:33 pm
I’m glad you got some rain! Especially up there where it really counts!

I feel weird wishing for dry weather, and I can certainly understand why folks would love this pattern to last all summer - normally I would too!! We’re all set to break ground tomorrow. I’m hoping for little rain over the next 6-8 weeks while this puppy gets built :)
It's finally going to work out. Good luck! We have an extended period of dry weather for the next 10 days+. After the weekend, there will be a slight chance of isolated showers every day.

This one's more like a Purgatory Ridge, instead of the Death Ridge

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