September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 6:28 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 6:24 pm Well their isnt any need to call anyone a wussie, not every had the same experience as you during the winter storm, some had it worse than others
He was halfway joking when he said that.
It's a joke...lol calm down
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DoctorMu
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cperk wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:23 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:52 pm Yall quit being wussies lol last yrs winter storm wasn't that bad..hell I'd rather it be cold and no power then hotter then hell with no power
Are you kidding me over 200 people died as a result of that winter storm.
Our gas fireplace and gas stove saved our butts and pipes during blackouts, rolling blackouts. Up in CLL the roads were undrivable for 2-3 days with ice on top of snow on top of 1/2 thick ice. The Frozen Tundra of Kyle Field!

If Texas actually connects with other grids or doesn't take a large portion of natural gas power plants down for maintenance we'd be OK. This weather happens nearly every year in Arkansas or North Carolina...and every winter month in the Midwest.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 201149
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning. Rain
chances will be minimal today and mainly south of I-10 should the
sea breeze kick up some afternoon precip. Any showers that develop
this afternoon will quickly dissipate around sunset. Patchy fog is
possible again overnight for rural areas and some MVFR ceilings
might slip in overnight for our northern sites such as CLL and
UTS. KBL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 453 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021/...


.SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Night]...

Today is a transitional day as a mid to upper level trough centered
over Louisiana continues to push further east. Over our CWA, zonal
flow in the upper levels and NVA in the mid levels will dampen most
convection. At most, kept 20ish PoPs south of I-10 in case any sea
breeze convection were to develop in this weak synoptic flow. If
anything, warm summer weather will want to hold on for one extra day
today as southwesterly winds help drive temperatures up to the 90s
across Southeast TX. Counties west of I-45 will reach the mid to
upper 90s and possibly flirt with 100 degrees.

Don`t worry, relief is still in sight as a cold front approaches on
Tuesday. This front should be approaching our northern counties by
early afternoon, push south and reach our central/southern counties
by early evening, and then push off the coast by late evening and
through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings show SB/MU CAPE at
least 2400 J/kg by the early evening as the front pushes through the
I-10 corridor. Although shear is lacking, other stability indices
indicate that isolated strong thunderstorms embedded in scattered
showers along the frontal boundary cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.
However, chances for these strong storms will decline rapidly after
sunrise with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures will still
reach the low to mid 90s on Tuesday, but behind the front dewpoints
will quickly drop into the upper 40s and 50s. Overnight lows will
reach the mid 60s north of I-10 and north of the Houston metro area
while everywhere else should cool to the upper 60s to lower 70s.
KBL


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
So the first day of Fall is actually going to feel like we changed
seasons. High pressure builds in following the Tuesday night cold
front and the temperature profile cools down with winds
increasing. Dewpoints should fall steadily during the day and with
this CAA high temperatures on Wednesday are little more
iffy...some guidance is still trying to hold on to near 90
degrees with abundant sunshine...this will probably not be reached
with the CAA so have undercut the MOS guidance and gone closer to
the NBM or slightly lower Wednesday through Thursday. Highs
probably 80-86 (cooler east/warmer west) and lows a refreshing mix
of lower to mid 50s north and upper 50s to lower 60s south. Warm
waters though should help keep the barrier islands warmer.
The high pressure pattern over TX should the cooler and drier
weather in place through Sunday with some warming and increases in
moisture on Monday.


45


.MARINE...

Onshore flow will continue until our first decent fall cold front
arrives Tuesday night turning winds north and quickly cranking up
to 20-25 knots by Wednesday morning. SCA conditions should
develop and persist into Wednesday afternoon then gradually come
down Wednesday night/Thursday. Seas of 6-8 feet should develop
offshore and be slow to diminish Thursday. High pressure inland
should keep the offshore flow pattern (more northeasterly flow)
through Saturday then winds become more easterly but with light
onshore flow possible.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 99 75 94 64 85 / 0 10 40 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 75 92 68 83 / 20 0 30 70 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 88 72 80 / 30 10 30 60 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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Dang it. Rain chances reduced from 50-60% to 30%-40% on Tuesday.

A few nights in the 50s on deck though!
Kingwood36
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:25 am Dang it. Rain chances reduced from 50-60% to 30%-40% on Tuesday.

A few nights in the 50s on deck though!
I'll take the 50s instead of the rain..
BlueJay
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A/C is out.
The 50s sound lovely!
Stratton20
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Hope those rain chances go back up!
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jasons2k
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70% here for tomorrow night. We could use a little rain around here. Looks like a stretch of beautiful weather after that.
Cpv17
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Looks like a burn band is a coming for Wharton County.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 202031
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
331 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]...

Southwesterly winds in the 850mb-700mb level has brought in an
abundance of dry air aloft. The dry air mixing down to the surface
is leading to slightly above normal temperatures this afternoon with
highs in the mid to upper 90s. Areas to the north and west will see
the hottest temperatures today where 850mb temperatures are more
supportive for highs in the upper 90s. The seabreeze is currently
working its way northwestward towards the metro area, but it will
have a hard time getting anything more than isolated
showers/thunderstorms to develop along its boundary. Satellite-
derived PW values show a split of dry air and drier air with areas
north of Harris County in the 1.2"-1.4" range and areas south in the
1.5"-1.7" range. The "highest" PoPs (20%) will be for locations
mainly south of I-10 for this afternoon. The latest run of the CAMs
tries to develop sparse convection around 22z-00z, but even that may
be too aggressive given the abundance of dry air. Anything that does
develop this afternoon will dissipate shortly after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. Temperatures overnight will run above
normal as well with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Now for what you`ve all been waiting for......let`s talk about
tomorrow`s cold front! Model guidance is still in fairly good
agreement on the cold front entering the CWA around 18z-20z,
reaching the Houston metro area around 00z-02z and at the coast
around 03z-05z. While there is dry air out ahead of the front, the
front itself will come with its own moisture to boot. The latest run
of the CAMs agree that FROPA will be mainly dry for far northern
areas, then showers/thunderstorms develops along the frontal
boundary as it approaches Harris County. Forecast soundings reveal
elevated instability (CAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) along with an inverted-V,
so gusty winds are not out of the question with any of the stronger
storms.

The high temperature forecast for Tuesday is very tricky and highly
dependent on FROPA timing. Leaned below guidance for far northern
locations and kept their highs in the upper 80s/low 90s with low-to-
mid 90s for everywhere else. The cool fun begins on Tuesday night as
drier air continues to filter in following the cold front leading to
lows in the 60s for most locations, but wouldn`t be surprised if a
few locations get an early jump at lows in the upper 50s. If you
miss out on the 50s on Tuesday night, then you`ll only have to wait
24 hours for an even better shot at it. Sweater weather is on the
horizon...enjoy it y`all!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Front continues to push well into the Gulf Wednesday morning & any
lingering mid and upper cloudiness inland should follow. Should see
msunny skies areawide by late morning. Fantastic wx prevails thru
the weekend with a dry nw flow aloft. Expect mostly clear to pcldy
skies with overnight lows in the 50s & 60s inland, upper 60s to
around 70 at the beaches. Mild, dry afternoons with highs in the
80s. Onshore flow resumes later this weekend as sfc high pressure
moves off to the east...but it probably won`t be until the early to
mid parts of next week until we notice much of a substantial
moisture/humidity return. 47

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions and southerly winds will continue to prevail
throughout the remainder of the day. Hi-res guidance still picking
up on very isolated SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, but coverage will be
sparse so left out any mention of VCSH/VCTS. Plentiful dry air
aloft will limit the development of anything substantial, and
chances of rain will be "highest" for HOU and southward (highest
being 20-30% chance). Winds become light and variable once again
overnight with another round of patchy fog and MVFR ceilings for
IAH and northward. The timeframe looks to be similar to last night
with MVFR/fog from 11z-15z before turbulent mixing raises the
ceilings back to VFR. Cold front will be on the doorstep of our
northern sites around 18z-20z on Tuesday. As the front approaches,
winds will become more southwesterly heading into tomorrow
afternoon. As the front works its way towards the central sites
(IAH, HOU, SGR), SHRA/TSRA coverage along the boundary increases.
Included VCTS at IAH from 22z, but more realistically this will
occur around 00z with the front clearing the site by 02z-03z.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will continue into Tuesday ahead of an approaching
cold front. The front should push off the coast between 8pm and
11pm Tuesday evening - possibly accompanied by a thin band of
showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to strong north and northeast
winds and building seas can be expected to develop in the wake of
the front and persist through Thursday morning. Small craft
advisories will be required. Winds and seas then gradually
diminish late in the week and on into the weekend. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another round of patchy fog and low cloud ceilings expected
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected along the boundary of a cold front that will pass through
SE Texas on Tuesday afternoon/evening along with a wind shift from
southerly to northeasterly. Beginning on Wednesday, RH values in the
afternoon hours become substantially lower than previous days due to
the drier air filtering in behind the cold front. Min RH values will
be in the 20-35% range for all areas except those along the coast
through the weekend.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 91 62 85 56 / 0 30 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 93 68 83 59 / 0 40 60 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 88 72 82 69 / 10 20 60 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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jasons2k
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Lowered to 50% here now. Pool temp already 85.
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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djmike
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60% rain for Beaumont Tuesday with a couple nights at 54! Ill take it!! Praying no more storms this year for anyone.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:26 pm 60% rain for Beaumont Tuesday with a couple nights at 54! Ill take it!! Praying no more storms this year for anyone.
This fall equinox front will clear out the chance of tropical cyclone visits for the year.
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djmike
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:30 am
djmike wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:26 pm 60% rain for Beaumont Tuesday with a couple nights at 54! Ill take it!! Praying no more storms this year for anyone.
This fall equinox front will clear out the chance of tropical cyclone visits for the year.
Good news! I am 100% ok with that! My house/property getting damaged in Rita, Ike, Harvey, Imelda, Beta, Laura, Delta, I wish this front would end all tropical mischief forever and I would be ok with that. Lol
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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jasons2k
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Now down to 40% tonight…
Kingwood36
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Anyone else annoyed when tv Mets call these fall fronts "cold fronts"? Like this one coming in tonight. It's not cold ..its a COOL front..lol maybe I'm just nit picking but it's annoying 😆
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tireman4
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Well, the men and women the HGX NWS call it a cold front...LOL



00
FXUS64 KHGX 211151
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
651 AM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.AVIATION...
Some shallow patchy fog could reduce visibility at TAF sites
through 15z but the fog will burn off quickly leaving VFR conds
for much of the day. A cold front will approach the area during
the afternoon and cross the northern TAF sites around 21z, the
Houston terminals around 00z and coastal TAF sites around 02z.
The front will bring scattered showers and isolated storms but
coverage will not be widespread enough to warrant a prevailing or
TEMPO group. Winds will become north in the wake of the front and
will increase. Will carry gusts for coastal TAF sites. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021/

SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...

Some patchy ground fog will reduce visibility to below 3 miles in a
few locations early this morning but widespread dense fog is not
expected. At 07z, a cold front extended from the western Great Lakes
to near Oklahoma City to Wichita falls to Midland. The cold font is
expected to make steady progress to the S-SE today as a long wave
trough deepens over the Central Plains and pushes eastward. Most of
the day looks dry as weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer holds
tough. But by late afternoon strong heating and some mid level
cooling associated with the upper trough will allow for scattered
showers to develop between 20-22z. The strong differential heating
will also allow for a weak sea breeze circulation to develop. By
late afternoon, PWATs will average between 1.75 inches over the
north to around 2.15 inches south. Surface winds become SW-W ahead
of the front over the northern half of the CWA and low level
convergence is kind of weak as the front pushes south. However, once
the front gets to around I-10, convergence will strengthen as the
front collides with the sea breeze. CAPE values are between 2000-
2500 J/Kg with LI values around -6 but lapse rates look weak. SE TX
will lie in a departing RRQ so considering the relatively decent
convective parameters in place will mention thunder and there could
a few isolated strong storms over the southern half of the CWA.
Tapered PoPs lowest over the NW zones and higher toward the coast
for late this afternoon into this evening. MaxT values will again be
on the warm side today as 850 temps remain near 22 C which
translates to mid/upper 90s at the surface.

Showers and storms will end over the north by mid evening and around
midnight at the immediate coast with skies clearing from NW to SE.
Weak cold air advection will develop in the wake of the front but it
won`t feel like fall just yet. MinT values will only cool into the
mid 60`s north near 70 south as winds aid in mixing a bit.

Wednesday looks like an absolutely gorgeous first day of autumn. The
equinox will occur at 221 PM CDT and MaxT values will reflect the
changing of the seasons with high temperatures only in the lower and
middle 80`s as 850 mb temps cool from 22.0 C to 13.0 north and 15.7
C south. Fcst soundings don`t show any saturation so went with sunny
skies. Dew points will mix out quite a bit with dew points falling
into the 40`s yielding RH values between 20 and 35 percent. Winds
will also be on the strong side as the gradient remains tight in
response to building high pressure. The combination of strong winds
and low RH will create dangerous fire weather conds on Wednesday.
See Fire Weather section for more details.

High pressure will bring clear skies Wednesday night. Winds are
expected to decouple so the combination of dry air, nearly calm
winds and clear skies will set the stage for the coldest night so
far this season. MinT values will like fall into the 50`s areawide.
43

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

High pressure will stay in place for several days throughout the
long term. Dewpoints will stay in the 40s and 50s through
Saturday, bringing a much needed relief to the humidity we`ve seen
recently. Mostly clear skies will stick around while temps max out
in the 80s through Saturday and overnight lows cool to the upper
50s to lower 60s. By late Saturday/early Sunday, temps and
humidity gradually climb once again as high pressure begins to
push off to the east. Global models diverge afterwards regarding
rain chances for Sunday onwards, but a steady increase in rain
chances is expected early next week. Southeast Texas will be
between a trough over the eastern US and a mid level closed low
over the southwestern US. The intensity and placement of both
these features will alter our rain chances locally. Therefore,
kept a blended option between global models until more of a
consensus is reached. KBL

MARINE...

Winds will be light and variable this afternoon as a front
approaches our coastal waters. This front should reach the coast
in the late evening and push offshore. In its wake strong NE winds
will reach SCA criteria around midnight tonight and seas will
build to 4-6 ft. NE-E winds will begin to diminish by late week
and into the weekend and seas will subside by then as well. By
Sunday as high pressure moves out, moderate onshore flow resumes.
KBL


FIRE WEATHER...

On Wednesday, the air mass will be very dry in the wake of today`s
front. Surface dew points will mix out into the 40`s with high temps
in the lower 80s. This will create RH values near or below 25
percent over much of the region. The low RH coupled with moderate to
occasionally strong north winds will produce dangerous fire weather
conditions, especially over the northern CWA where it has been
considerably drier than the south this month. College Station and
Huntsville have received 0.24 and 0.40 inches of rain respectively
while Houston Hobby has received 6.55 inches of rain. KBDI values
over the north (north of a Columbus to Navasota to Trinity line) are
between 600-700 which is another indicator of how dry it`s been.
Burn Bans are in effect for Colorado, Madison, Walker and Waller
counties. Use extreme caution if working with flammable materials on
Wednesday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 63 86 57 83 / 40 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 67 84 59 80 / 40 50 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 73 83 68 78 / 30 60 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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tireman4
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The front as of 12 noon....
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Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:24 pm The front as of 12 noon....
I bet that front is going to induce a lot of burn bans.
Stratton20
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Too bad the nice weather will only be a round for a few days before summer returns, these fronts always tease us
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