October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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Re: October 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:36 am

Hopefully this slop on the way doesn't mess up my Southwest flight. They have enough problems blaming issues on fake weather without actual rain.

Kingwood36
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Re: October 2021

Post by Kingwood36 » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:53 am

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.

La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”

NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - ter https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges

Sooooooooo....what does this mean for our winter here?

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don
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Re: October 2021

Post by don » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:59 am

Interesting looks like the storm complex held itself together. Models seem to have underestimated it. We'll have to keep an eye on the heavy rain starting to train along the 59 corridor.

Pas_Bon
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Re: October 2021

Post by Pas_Bon » Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:54 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:53 am
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.

La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”

NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - ter https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges

Sooooooooo....what does this mean for our winter here?
Generally, it should equate to warmer and drier winters in our neck of the woods in Texas (as the jet stream typically hangs out far North of us); however, last winter was a "La Nina Winter" and we all remember what happened then. It was a rather stark anomaly, to be sure.

Stratton20
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Re: October 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:12 am

I suspect we will be in for a cold winter this season, at least the end of december- february, at least thats what I think and hope for

Iceresistance
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Re: October 2021

Post by Iceresistance » Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:24 pm

Uh oh . . .

Image

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:58 pm

don wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:59 am
Interesting looks like the storm complex held itself together. Models seem to have underestimated it. We'll have to keep an eye on the heavy rain starting to train along the 59 corridor.
I was a bit surprised. We receive 1.5 inches from the complex about 3 am. Really needed. Brown patch started appearing on Tuesday and I had put down some additional fungicide. It should be soaked into the topsoil and should be activated. Up here in CLL, you can't beat brown patch; you can only contain it!

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:00 pm

Pas_Bon wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:54 am
Kingwood36 wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:53 am
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.

La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”

NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - ter https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges

Sooooooooo....what does this mean for our winter here?
Generally, it should equate to warmer and drier winters in our neck of the woods in Texas (as the jet stream typically hangs out far North of us); however, last winter was a "La Nina Winter" and we all remember what happened then. It was a rather stark anomaly, to be sure.
The only thing predictable about a La Nina winter in Texas - it that it is unpredictable! :lol:

Last year being a mega case in point!

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Ptarmigan
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Re: October 2021

Post by Ptarmigan » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:02 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:24 pm
Uh oh . . .

Image
This could get interesting.

Cromagnum
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Re: October 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:52 am

Ptarmigan wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:02 pm
Iceresistance wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:24 pm
Uh oh . . .

Image
This could get interesting.
Is this the sudden stratospheric warming that tends to precede strong southerly cold events about a month in advance?

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