October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

CIGs and VSBY slowly improving this morning as area now split
between MVFR and VFR. Expecting over the next couple of hours this
will shift decidedly towards VFR, with light SEish winds until
evening.

Like last night, should have an opportunity for low stratus and/or
fog late tonight. No 1/4SM explicitly in the TAFs for now, but
there is some potential for a TEMPO or a couple hours of that if
winds go slack.

&&
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:51 pm
snowman65 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:16 pm when will this weather be moving through Wed? I gotta flight at 6:40pm from bmt/dfw/omaha...
It should be out of the area by early afternoon.
Right. The squall line and front will be going through College Station by 11 am. Houston by 2 pm. Strong Fall fronts often overperform vs. models, so I'd expect the front to be over the GOM well before 6 pm Wednesday.
Iceresistance
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Very Strong Winds are expected Thursday across Central Oklahoma, 35-55 mph winds & gusts up to 50-60 mph
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snowman65
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here ya go....told ya lol
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Kingwood36
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snowman65 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:43 am here ya go....told ya lol
They had the same outlook last year and look what happebd with the freeze..
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:43 am here ya go....told ya lol
The NOAA over the last decade has been right as much as a broken clock. So not much.

Your Schtick is as old as tropikals.
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weatherguy425
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:29 am
snowman65 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:43 am here ya go....told ya lol
They had the same outlook last year and look what happebd with the freeze..
And much of last winter, as a whole, was milder than average. These maps indicate the chance of various averaged temperature anomalies. One week if cold doesn’t mean the entire winter was.
Stratton20
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These winter outlooks are a joke, definitely dont think this winter will be warmer than average , they should just atop with these winter outlooks
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don
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The HRRR,3K NAM,and other mesoscale models are in good agreement with a potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through southeast Texas tomorrow morning.And are also showing hints of the southern half of the squall line bowing out indicating strong winds,with decent low level shear. Stay weather aware tomorrow morning.
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Stratton20
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12z GFS shows the potential for a massive cool down around the 2nd of November, a potential arctic outbreak
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