May 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Re: May 2022

Post by jasons2k » Thu May 12, 2022 11:01 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 5:56 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 6:27 am
Doesn’t look any rain for a long time….get ready…
Like I’ve been saying for the past month, the only way I can see us get any rain would be from the tropics. At least you’ve gotten a couple inches over the past few weeks.
Thank you. Yes, indeed, we have had some thankful rains over the last couple of weeks.

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DoctorMu
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Re: May 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri May 13, 2022 12:58 am

Drier and slightly cooler air filtered in today. Good dog walking and jogging weather this evening.

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DoctorMu
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Re: May 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri May 13, 2022 1:03 am

Rain chance are looking slim to none and Slim just left the building. Not even a sea breeze on the horizon.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1204 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Light SE/ESE winds will allow patchy fog to develop across most
of the region tonight. MVFR to IFR visibility will be possible
across most of SE Texas with IFR to LIFR conditions possible at
KCXO and KLBX. MVFR to IFR CIGS will be possible with this fog.
Decided to shorted the duration and extent of patchy fog given
the larger dewpoint spread compared to last night. Fog will burn
off and CIGS will scatter out Friday morning. Light SSW winds in
the morning will back to the S/SSE through the day, becoming light
Friday night. Patchy fog will be possible once again Friday
Night.
03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 700 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Hot weather continues. An upper trough lifts from UT into WY with
upper ridging across TX with a cut off low off the FL/GA coast
drifting slowly westward. The ridging over SETX will weaken slightly
tonight and Friday.

Overnight expect temperatures to slowly fall into the 70s and 60s
with mostly clear skies. Toward morning some patchy fog and lower
clouds will develop as winds become light and variable to calm.
Friday southerly flow redevelops and again we warm up quickly into
the mid 80s by 10-11am. Temperatures again reach up into the lower
to mid 90s during the afternoon. Still some slightly drier air over
the region which helps to limit the heat indicies. Rain chances over
Louisiana Friday afternoon should expand southwestward but will be
fighting against a very strong cap over SETX and don`t expect them
to reach the area but may be lurking off to the east Saturday
morning. More on that below.

As for rain we can use some more in SETX. Currently D3 drought
covers the areas from Wharton to near Freeport southwestward and D0-
D2 from Caldwell to Houston to Groveton southward.

45


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

By Saturday, an upper level cutoff low begins to retrograde and
push west, but most of the moisture and forcing will hover near
the Mississippi River Valley. Trying to be optimistic and kept
some slight chance PoPs around 10% for areas east of I-45 on
Saturday afternoon, but models have slowly been getting drier for
Southeast Texas on Saturday. Therefore, a few isolated showers
are possible on Saturday with rainfall accumulations a few
hundredths of an inch at most, but like I said, that`s being
optimistic.

If you`re hoping for more rain in the forecast, then don`t hold
your breath because there are no other noticeable rain chances for
the rest of the long term forecast. After the low/trough on
Saturday pushes east again, a persistent high pressure and ridge
builds in overhead. With 850mb heights and temps rising combined
with southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will steadily increase
Sunday onwards. Daytime highs reach the upper 90s inland and upper
80s along the coast. Heat index values also reach the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees for the rest of the week. Overnight lows will
also be warm and reach the low to mid 70s most evenings.

Lenninger


.MARINE...

Southerly to southwesterly flow will persist through next week as
high pressure systems build in overhead, push out, and then
build back in again. Wind speeds might hover near Caution
criteria at times, but seas will still remain near 2 to 4 feet
through late next week.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 92 69 95 70 98 / 0 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 70 95 71 96 / 0 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 88 78 89 / 0 0 10 10 0

&&

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DoctorMu
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Re: May 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri May 13, 2022 1:07 am

I guess we'll be tropical model watching/fantasizing for awhile. With La Nina potentially getting wrecked by the Kelvin wave, it may be difficult to titrate placid tropical lemonade our way. TCs could be nastier than ever this season.

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: May 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Fri May 13, 2022 11:10 am

DoctorMu wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 1:07 am
I guess we'll be tropical model watching/fantasizing for awhile. With La Nina potentially getting wrecked by the Kelvin wave, it may be difficult to titrate placid tropical lemonade our way. TCs could be nastier than ever this season.
Need to watch for a transition to ENSO neutral this fall. If that happens, historically our odds increase for hurricane impacts.

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Re: May 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Fri May 13, 2022 1:22 pm

Saw what looks like the SW edge of a backdoor front kicking off thunderstorms in the eastern half of our viewing area Saturday night. Something to watch.

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DoctorMu
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Re: May 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri May 13, 2022 3:17 pm

"Only" 90°F. S10 breeze. DP in the 60s. Partly cloudy. Not too bad out! Would take this all summer.

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: May 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Sat May 14, 2022 11:06 am

On the bright side, tomorrow evening the weather should be great to see this!

Image

Source: HGX Weather Service

Cpv17
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Re: May 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Sat May 14, 2022 2:25 pm

Possible pattern change coming in about 7-10 days from now. Wouldn’t count on it happening yet but there’s a possibility at least.

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DoctorMu
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Re: May 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat May 14, 2022 10:47 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Sat May 14, 2022 11:06 am
On the bright side, tomorrow evening the weather should be great to see this!

Image

Source: HGX Weather Service
I think you mean the dark side. ;)

But it will likely be clear!

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