January 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

DoctorMu CMC has a light glazing for CS
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

TBH, the entire winter so far has gone as expected in CLL. It's been cooler than normal until later today. January thaw after Christmas dry cold. We have colder weather ahead later in the upcoming week.

In the Houston area, the warm sector has dominated, including last weekend's severe weather.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:26 pm DoctorMu CMC has a light glazing for CS
That's no surprise. A Shipley's Donuts layer of glaze is possible.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:54 am I just looked at the mesoscale models for tomorrow and I’m not really seeing much rain around for a lot of us yet rain chances are like 80-90%. I don’t see anything that should warrant such high chances.
I don't see that...I guess it depends where you're located.For the eastern half of SE Texas (Houston and points east) rain chances still look pretty good,with most models showing widespread thunderstorms developing tomorrow morning/afternoon.Could be some localized street flooding also tomorrow.
wpc_excessive_rainfsll_day2.us_sc.png
Attachments
Screenshot 2023-01-28 at 12-21-09 Models HRW WRF-NSSL — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2023-01-28 at 12-20-29 Models NAM 3km CONUS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2023-01-28 at 12-21-46 Models HRW FV3 — Pivotal Weather.png
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

don wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:46 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:54 am I just looked at the mesoscale models for tomorrow and I’m not really seeing much rain around for a lot of us yet rain chances are like 80-90%. I don’t see anything that should warrant such high chances.
I don't see that...I guess it depends where you're located.For the eastern half of SE Texas (Houston and points east) rain chances still look pretty good,with most models showing widespread thunderstorms developing tomorrow morning/afternoon.Could be some localized street flooding also tomorrow.

wpc_excessive_rainfsll_day2.us_sc.png
I was mainly talking about my area. I should’ve mentioned that. My bad.
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Nothing unhealthy about living in reality, but chosing to dodge it is definately unhealthy.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Still icy glaze on NAM12k from a Brenham to College Station to Buffalo line.

A very unstable line and complex forecast in a Battle Royale between Artic air and the SE ridge. The Baja ULL is a fly in the ointment that NAM and CMC are struggle with and GFS is ignoring. The Euro isn't sure. Neither the Euro nor GFS are great in the winter with arctic air masses.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

18zNAM is edging ice and snow closer and closer to covering CLL.

Image
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

How is the storm situation looking for Sunday?
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Cold Front faster than expected.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

00z NAM is colder and now has wintry precip much further south, in CS and even in some of our western counties now fwiw
Karen
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:58 am
Location: League City, Texas
Contact:

When is this supposed to hit
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Karen their are some differences in timing on the arrival of the srctic air, but id say roughly tommorow afternoon for far northern counties, and early Monday morning for everyone else
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:17 pm How is the storm situation looking for Sunday?
For areas along and east of the I-45 corridor looks like widespread thunderstorms with some areas possibly getting 3+ inches of rain.Models show a band or two of training storms along the slow moving frontal boundary.But they differ on exactly where the bands setup,some have the band setting up closer to the coast while others have it setting up along or north of the I-10 corridor.The further west you are from I-45 the drier it looks to be tomorrow, with a tight gradient of rainfall amounts over the area.
Attachments
Screenshot 2023-01-28 at 21-25-03 Models HRW FV3 — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2023-01-28 at 21-21-05 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2023-01-28 at 21-21-24 Models HRW WRF-NSSL — Pivotal Weather.png
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

snowman65 wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:08 pm Nothing unhealthy about living in reality, but chosing to dodge it is definately unhealthy.
Seriously? You could be in the bullseye for a foot of snow within 48 hours of an event and you’d still think like, oh we may get a dusting but that’s about it. Yeah, I’d definitely say that’s living in reality.
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Trying to understand what to expect for SETX. When will the cold air arrive here? Im guessing no winter precip for us.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

sambucol cold air will most likely arrive by monday midday or maybe morning, as for precip, likely just cold rain for yall with the exception for NW counties, trust me you should be happy with just cold rain, this setup is all out ice/sleet, no snow, ice is miserable
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:48 am
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:57 am jasons2k i personally dont find weather apps to be reliable for temps, mainly just for the radar
I pretty much make my own forecast for temps if I’m being completely honest. And I don’t rely on the NWS or apps for too much of anything. I ride or die with my own forecast. Just being honest.
Same here but the NWS point forecast for my location plus my old rule of thumb: IAH - 1 for lows and IAH + 1 for highs…it’s usually spot-on. If not, within 2 degrees. The misses stand out but it’s infrequent.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Katdaddy wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:55 am It was a sad day when I heard the news 9/28/2018 of Ticka's passing. Glad I had a chance to meet her at our Kemah gathering years ago.
Indeed it was. She was one of the original members on S2K when we started.

We need to plan another gathering. I’d like to meet our local members.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 12:08 am
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:48 am
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:57 am jasons2k i personally dont find weather apps to be reliable for temps, mainly just for the radar
I pretty much make my own forecast for temps if I’m being completely honest. And I don’t rely on the NWS or apps for too much of anything. I ride or die with my own forecast. Just being honest.
Same here but the NWS point forecast for my location plus my old rule of thumb: IAH - 1 for lows and IAH + 1 for highs…it’s usually spot-on. If not, within 2 degrees. The misses stand out but it’s infrequent.
Yeah, that’s actually a pretty good idea!
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 59 guests