June 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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All I got was 1/10 inch during a quick storm, and a lightning strike that was close enough to kill one of the LAN ports on my router. Mother nature sucks sometimes.
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don
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Winds gusted over 70mph with the storm today.Many reports and pics of down trees and powerlines in the area.
6 ENE Cypress Harris TX 3001 9559 Twitter user reported trees snapped and blocking lanes along 249 and Lakewood Crossing Dr. (HGX)
8 SE Tomball Harris TX 3001 9554 Broadcast media reported a fallen tree on a home. (HGX)
4 E Cypress Harris TX 2998 9560 Trained spotter reported a large tree down in Jaycreek drive ... nearly 4 to 6 inches in diameter.
3 NNE Houston Harris TX 2982 9537 Social media video of large tree uprooted and fallen over near the intersection of Interstate 45 and the North Loop near Fulton Street. Time is estimated based on radar (HGX)
1 S Houston Harris TX 2976 9539 Twitter user shared video of a downed tree along Allen Parkway. (HGX)
4 E Texas City Galveston TX 2942 9489 Brigantine Cay Mesonet site measured 67 MPH wind gust. (HGX)
3 NNE Galveston Galveston TX 2927 9486 KGLS ASOS measured 61 MPH wind gust. (HGX)
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jasons2k
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Picked up .32” yesterday.
user:null
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 6:45 pm In this episode (18z) of GFS Tropical Fantasy, the Death Ridge (Godzilla) defeats the hurricane (Mothra) with a blocking pattern:
At least that run allows the storm to influence Texas more, rather than a recurve into Louisiana.
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 7:03 pm I am convinced the GFS is broken with these ridiculous tropical runs lol
Probably something will give regarding the persistence of such runs. In reality, it's likely just going to be a mere moisture surge (maybe a weak depression/storm at most).
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DoctorMu
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user:null wrote: Fri Jun 09, 2023 10:14 am
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 7:03 pm I am convinced the GFS is broken with these ridiculous tropical runs lol
Probably something will give regarding the persistence of such runs. In reality, it's likely just going to be a mere moisture surge (maybe a weak depression/storm at most).
I'd gladly take some weak lemonade, because...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZD8HKVKneI
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 091106
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Like yesterday, the key story of the short term is convective, and
the long term is heat. Saturday looks to pose an environment in
which afternoon storms initiate off the dryline to our north and
west. As they push across the state, we may see them congeal into
an organized complex that could bring some potential for strong to
severe storms in Southeast Texas. The threat will range from a
lower level 1 of 5 as far southwest as the Colorado River, to a
level 3 of 5 in the northern half of Houston County, from Crockett
northward. The main hazard of concern will be damaging winds.

Looking into the heat of next week, confidence remains very high
in a weeklong stretch of above average temperatures. Confidence is
beginning to increase in the early week rising noticeably above
average, but falling short of records. In the late week however,
there are signs that temperatures may inch closer to triple digit
highs and records, though confidence is not as high at the far end
of the forecast period as earlier portions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Building pressure heights and the introduction of drier air in the
mid-levels will shift the main weather story from the storms of
yesterday to the heat of today. Many locations are expected to warm
into the mid-90s this afternoon. Once humidity is accounted for, the
"real feel" temperatures are expected to be around 100F. Friday will
not be void of PoPs. Subtle mid/upper level features along with the
sea breeze boundary could suffice for isolated convective
development. But most areas are expected to remain mostly dry. Lows
tonight will drop into the low/mid-70s. Areas near the immediate
coast could struggle to drop below 80F.

The outlook for Saturday is becoming increasingly interesting. A
series of more robust shortwaves coupled with a more moist
atmospheric profile will allow for a better chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Saturday`s PoPs are modest for now (~20-
30 percent). HRRR has become more aggressive regarding convective
development on Saturday. It even suggests the potential for a few
strong to severe thunderstorms. Though I`d like to think that the
HRRR is just going rogue, the idea of having another round of strong
to severe thunderstorms on Saturday is not without scientific
support. Mid/upper level west to northwest flow will be on the
increase again, boosting bulk shear across the region. Instability
will not be lacking, with CAPE values easily exceeding 2000 J/kg.
The aforementioned PoPs for Saturday are higher than what was
indicated in the previous update. If recent data trends continue, we
will need to further adjust Saturday`s PoPs upward. The Storm
Prediction Center has placed much of the CWA under a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Much like the situation on
Thursday, damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern. Isolated
severe hail cannot be ruled out. Saturday will also be another hot
and humid day with highs generally in the mid-90s with heat index
values up around 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

The story on next week as its come into our forecast window has
been expected heat, and that is not changing as high confidence
remains in an unseasonably hot week ahead. The meteorology here is
pretty straightforward. Starting on Sunday morning, we`ll see
ridging building in at all levels. The midlevel ridge looks to be
centered over the Mexican Pacific coast, which does put us in
northwest flow aloft. However, unlike in the short term, heights
look to have built enough that shortwave troughs running through
the southern stream cut to our north, leaving us high and dry.

As we push into the new week, that 592 dm ridge on the Pacific
strengthens and pushes northeast towards Texas. Monday looks to
have a 595 dm high over the mountains of Mexico, and will continue
to slowly drift towards Brownsville, though it appears that
strength of the ridge should roughly plateau. By Friday, a digging
trough over the Eastern US will likely nudge that ridge back
towards the high ground, but doesn`t yet change the weeklong trend
of subsidence, sun, and...sizzling...warmth (yes, it`s a stretch,
but had to keep the alliteration going). A change in the pattern
will come...eventually...but not during this forecast period.

As for the intensity of this heat, we still have some mixed
signals. Confidence remains very high that temps just above the
surface, at the 850 mb level, will be above average, and very
likely well above average, as the NAEFS and EPS ensemble means
continue to rise above the 99th percentile across the area by
Tuesday, and carry through the work week. The EPS mean is also
still maxing out the 850 temp climo at times Thursday and Friday.
Multi-ensemble clusters also continue to show that we`re not
seeing a big deviation from the mean in surface temps, increasing
confidence that mean values are reasonable expectations.

The main question, as it has in past nights, remains in how that
high end 850 mb heat translates to surface temperatures. Heavily
surface-influenced temperatures are going to be less trustworthy
(especially at range, and especially in global models) than
stepping up in the atmosphere a bit, which is why I`ve been
talking about 850 temps so much in the first place. But there`s
definitely been consistency in the euro ensemble`s Extreme
Forecast Index, which generally tracks with my understanding of
the meteorology, so I`m feeling a little more confident in how
next week plays out.

In general, the continuing story of not seeing any sort of
coherent signal in the EFI early in the week helps support a
forecast of high temperatures rising into the middle to upper 90s
inland, decidedly above average but also safely shy of records.
Additionally, the deterministic NBM and median NBM numbers are
beginning to converge, so the probabilistic profile and
statistically post-processed results are increasingly telling the
same story. Deeper into the week, we start to see the high EFI
numbers to our south and west begin to close in. We even see some
0.5 and even some 0.6 contours creep into the forecast area. Along
with this, I take temperatures even higher into the 90s, and
and an emerging area managing to reach 100 degrees as an afternoon
high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

With the exception of patchy fog resulting in localized sub VFR
conditions this morning, VFR cigs and vis will prevail through the
TAF period. Winds will be generally light. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm today. However, activity is
expected to be too isolated to include in the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Light and variable winds overnight and early this morning will
begin to strengthen through the day today. This evening and
tonight, winds will become more southerly and increase to near the
threshold for caution flags. As winds increase, seas will
gradually rise to a 2 to 4 foot range for the weekend. Towards the
middle of next week, the likelihood for caution flags, and
potentially even a short small craft advisory will increase.
Expect rain potential to shift entirely inland this weekend, with
dry weather prevailing across the area into next week.

At the coast, water level and rip current threats remain
relatively low through early next week, though they will be non-
zero as the onshore flow strengthens. However, these may need to
be more closely monitored later next week as stronger onshore flow
persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 73 95 72 / 10 0 30 10
Houston (IAH) 95 75 95 74 / 20 0 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 88 79 / 10 0 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 092006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
306 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Could see isolated showers along the seabreeze late this aft,
otherwise it will be dry out there this aft/eve.

On Saturday, a mid/upper shortwave trough will pass across
north/northeast Texas and ignite thunderstorms. The atmosphere will
be unstable, especially across northern and central areas of SE TX.
Think we will see scattered afternoon thunderstorms develop mid-
day/early afternoon across northern portions of SE TX and these
storms will move east-southeast. A more organized area of
thunderstorms will likely develop northwest of the area during the
mid/late aft hours and also move southeast into and across SE TX.
It`s this organized area of storms that will likely produce a severe
thunderstorm threat to a large portion of SE TX during the evening
hours. The greatest risk will be from near CLL to UTS to Livingston
where there is an enhanced risk from SPC. The slight risk area
extends from the upper coast back to Columbus. Both damaging wind
gusts and large hail will be possible. We have raised the chc of
thunderstorms across SE TX during both Sat aft and eve, as
confidence is growing that a MCS will develop and move across at
least portions of the area.

Prior to the Saturday thunderstorms, it will be hot with inland
temperatures reaching the mid 90s and heat indices reaching the low
100s in areas.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Sunday and onwards looks relatively unchanged. Ridging rebuilds
across the Southern Plains, with increasing subsidence aiming to
suppress rain chances through the rest of the forecast period. A
pseudo omega pattern very briefly develops across the CONUS Sunday
night, with this features later drifting E/ENE in the days
following. While the upper level flow over Texas becomes more zonal,
the subtropical ridge over Mexico should persist. 500mb heights will
remain near 591 dam for most of next week. 850mb temperatures also
rise to around 21-25C by Wednesday, with NAEFS Mean 850mb
temperatures still expected to exceed the 99th throughout most of
the work week.

Global models show the ridge flattening on
Wednesday/Thursday as a shortwave trough digs through the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi River Valley. This feature will attempt to
push a weak, backdoor frontal boundary into SE Texas. Keyword is
"attempt" because the models have been back and forth on whether or
not this feature will reach our area. Given the time of year and
WPC`s 500mb cluster analysis, I`m doubtful that that the boundary
will actually reach SE Texas. In fact, these features look to bring
Southwesterly flow at 850mb during this portion of the forecast
period, which may end up enhancing afternoon heating and bringing
even higher temperatures and heat indicies.

Either way, the main takeaway is that next week will be very hot.
Daytime highs will threaten to break triple digits (especially by
midweek) with peak heat indicies likely exceeding 105F. The CPC
(Climate Prediction Center) is still anticipating a heat wave
spanning across parts of the South-central and Southeastern CONUS,
placing these areas under a Moderate (level 2/3) risk of Excessive
Heat throughout the upcoming work week, and even into portions of
the following week as well. Global ensembles support this notion,
showing prolonged, above normal temperatures beyond the scope of
this 7 day forecast. Those with outdoor plans should be wary of the
temperatures and practice heat safety, especially given the
prolonged nature of this heat. Stay hydrated and limit strenuous
outdoor activities whenever possible.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Will see sct cu develop later this afternoon across the eastern 2/3
of the area. Only expecting a sight chc of a late aft shra around
SGR, HOU, and LBX in the vicinity of the seabreeze. After the TAF
pd, expecting to see TSRA chcs go up for the northern half of the
area late Sat aft and eve.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Light southwesterly winds are expected to shift southerly and
strengthening over the weekend while seas gradually rise to 3 to 4
feet. Rain chances dwindle on Sunday with dry weather prevailing
into next week. Caution flags may be needed as early as Tuesday
morning as winds near 15 to 20 knots. This strengthened onshore flow
may bring a higher risk of risk current by mid next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 95 71 97 / 0 30 30 0
Houston (IAH) 75 95 74 96 / 10 20 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 87 79 88 / 0 10 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...03
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DoctorMu
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Interesting - the ensembles keep the DR over Texas and the GoM...the GFS is pushing the ridge SW into Mexico and the imaginary hurricane now hits Florida.

GFS actually has rain accumulation over the next 2 weeks N of Hwy 1*5.

Image

The Euro actually concurs, except for the hurricane part.

Allegedly, the ridge becomes weaker after the 20th.
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DoctorMu
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Welp. The temperature and the DP are both up.

Enjoyed that FL, NC kind of weather while it lasted!
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