November 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 3:22 pm Friday night looks perfect for some 3rd round playoff football weather!

Low to mid 50s and clear!
The front blasted through here. NW 15-20 mph winds. With advection, the DP tanked into the mid 40s. The sky is clearing. Laissez les bon temps roulez!
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Still 70ish and muggy here.
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jasons2k
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My old weather station bit the dust awhile ago, so I finally upgraded to a Davis Vantage Vue. Pretty excited. Should be arriving in a few days.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:44 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2023 9:47 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2023 7:35 pm

Sounds a lot like south Florida.
Yeah that sounds horrible.
I’d take a South/Central Florida summer over a Texas summer in any year.
Same with winter.
I would actually enjoy winter more in Colorado than Texas. 30’s and 40’s, overcast with a cold rain and blustery winds just plain suck.

70’s in January while people up north are shoveling snow is heaven for me.
Summer in Gainesville was tolerable. Beginning in June the easterlies kick up with a breeze every day. Showers pop up around 2:30 pm most days. By 4:30 pm the skies clear and the evening is cool, and the outflow lowers the DP. The sand loam drains well.

Gainesville is far enough north that the winters are drier with lower DPs and temps than Tampa or even Orlando. It's a huge difference. Winters from Gainesville through Charleston are pretty good. Lots of sunshine, mild. For snow, the mountains aren't *that* far away: 4-5.5 hours.
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:44 pm I would actually enjoy winter more in Colorado than Texas. 30’s and 40’s, overcast with a cold rain and blustery winds just plain suck.
But Colorado would get even colder, more blustery than 30s-40s though. Albeit, the eastern side cold more like the plains with shallow cold outbreaks ... but cold in western areas (like Grand Junction) is more high elevation + stuck inversions.

Speaking of Texas winter...

Image
Cpv17
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user:null wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:07 pm
jasons2k wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:44 pm I would actually enjoy winter more in Colorado than Texas. 30’s and 40’s, overcast with a cold rain and blustery winds just plain suck.
But Colorado would get even colder, more blustery than 30s-40s though. Albeit, the eastern side cold more like the plains with shallow cold outbreaks ... but cold in western areas (like Grand Junction) is more high elevation + stuck inversions.

Speaking of Texas winter...

Image
Jason does like snow though.
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Ptarmigan
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NWS Houston Area Forecast Discussion
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 202255
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

We continue to keep our eyes closely on the radar this afternoon.
However, the bulk of the severe weather has been to our north and
east where UL diffluence has been strongest. The southeast Texas
atmosphere has not been lacking in shear. Effect bulk layer shear
has been an impressive 50 to 70 knots. RAP analysis indicate that
instability isn`t necessarily lacking either. But the window of
opportunity for severe weather is closing fast. The Tornado Watch
for our northeastern counties has been cancelled.

As these showers/storms exit the region, the primary focus will
shift to the approaching cold front. Winds will increase from the
northwest in the front`s wake tonight, possibly gusting near 30 MPH
at times (higher near the coast). In addition, much cooler
temperatures will filter southward into our region with lows falling
into the upper 40s in our northern counties and low/mid 50s
elsewhere. Conditions remain breezy and cool on Tuesday with
afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Despite being
well behind the cold front on Tuesday, the combination of mid-level
Pacific moisture as well moisture wrapping around a low-pressure
system in the midwest is expected to delay our sunshine. Our current
sky grids show an eventual gradual clearing by late afternoon and
evening.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

CAA will continue to prevail going into Wednesday with surface high
pressure nearby. Although, Wednesday is trending a bit cooler due to
increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching upper level low
moving in from northern Mexico. Not too much cooler, but enough to
where we can say highs are expected to be mainly in the upper 50s
rather than the low 60s now. This upper level low forms from
shortwave energy that pinches off from the upper level low that
aided in pushing in Monday`s cold front. The trough with the
embedded low then pushes southeastward going into Wednesday before
the flow aloft allows it to track northeastward across Southeast
Texas on Thanksgiving Day. There still remains a bit of uncertainty
as far rain goes on Thanksgiving, so I`m still going to allow that
to have it`s own paragraph. I should note here though that although
NBM trended back cooler for Wednesday night, I kept temperatures a
few degrees warmer due to the increasing cloud cover. Alright...now
let`s make like turkey and wobble on to the Thanksgiving forecast!

If you don`t want to read through the technical/nerdy stuff that
follows, then here`s a quick summary for you (and you can skip to
the next paragraph afterwards): light rain is expected on
Thanksgiving morning into the afternoon and tapers off in the mid to
late afternoon, but the overcast clouds will lead to cooler daytime
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Now onto the cool stuff! As
the upper level trough (with embedded cutoff low) moves into
Southeast Texas on Thursday, it`ll become negatively tilted.
Saying "negative tilt" may get some heads to turn, but nothing
severe will occur...in fact there won`t be any storms at all with
effectively zero instability. Additionally, PW values have trended
a bit drier with values now expected to peak at 0.8"-1.0" south
of I-10 on Thursday (75th percentile: ~1.27"). Model soundings
reveal that there`s also drier air at the surface to contend with
from the surface to 2 km, so the saturation is mainly at the
mid/upper levels. On top of that, the timing/progression of this
low will play a key factor due to the jet streak on its
southeastern flank. We`ll start out in a region of upper level
divergence/diffluence (left exit region) followed by a quick shift
to a region of upper level convergence/confluence (left entrance
region). Think of it like a clap on/clap off situation for
favorable upper level dynamics. And then on top of that, there`s
still some uncertainty in the exact track of the upper low as a
southern track (off the coast) like the NAM/GFS suggest would keep
us drier. So...it`s not entirely surprising that ensemble members
are a bit wishy-washy and seem to be the equivalent of asking a
wishbone if it`s going to rain and breaking it apart. All that
being said, there are enough ensemble members showing light rain
that I kept in the 20-30% PoPs for Thanksgiving...but no heavy
rain is expected, so outdoor plans shouldn`t be impacted other
than the grounds being a little damp.

As far as temperatures go, the overcast clouds will keep
temperatures in the mid to the upper 50s throughout the day.
Thanksgiving night will be on the chilly side with lows ranging from
the upper 30s to mid 40s. Past that, we`re still eyeing the next
cold front some time next weekend with another upper level trough
swinging through the Four Corners region. Originally, the timing
looked to be on Saturday, but now things have transitioned to more
of a Sunday timeframe. Either way, rain chances increase going into
the weekend with PW values climbing into the 1.3"-1.6" range.
Temperatures look to remain cool throughout and past the long term
period with NBM upper quartiles for maximum temperatures remaining
well below 70°F into next week. So, it`s entirely possible that we
could stay below 70°F through the end of the month...and if not then
you know who jinxed it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 444 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

The majority of the showers and thunderstorms have ended with the
front now moving through the area. The northwesterly wind shift
will occur shortly at CLL and UTS, and then in the next few hours
at CXO. The front will slide through IAH around 3z, SGR/HOU
around 4z, and then to LBX/GLS by 5 to 6z. The winds will become
strong behind the front with sustained winds expect around 15kts
and gusts to 25kts, which will continue through tomorrow afternoon
or evening. VFR conditions will prevail, but there may be some
MVFR CIGs at around 2500-3000ft coming down from the north late
tomorrow morning into the afternoon for CLL, UTS, and maybe CXO.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow continues to prevail
with caution flags raised for the farshore waters through this
afternoon as well. This is ahead of an approaching cold front that
will push through during the evening hours with showers/storms
possible ahead of and along the frontal boundary. In the wake of the
front, elevated seas reaching 7-9 feet and moderate to strong
northerly/northwesterly winds will prevail through Tuesday night
with gale force gusts possible at times. The window for gale force
gusts looks to be roughly between 4am-12pm Tuesday. A Small Craft
Advisory will go into effect tonight and will likely need to remain
in place through early Wednesday morning. Winds and seas gradually
subside on Wednesday with offshore flow prevailing through late
Thursday. Rain chances return again on Wednesday night/Thursday as
an upper level disturbance pushes through. Winds transition to a
northeasterly flow going into Thursday night/Friday and into the
weekend.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  50  61  41  58 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  52  61  45  58 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  55  63  50  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Tuesday night for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste
user:null
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:41 pmJason does like snow though.
Never knew that. I do see where he's coming from, regarding alpine regions and such.

Sufficiently cold, dry air aloft can really power things even through much milder surface levels to create good surprises — remember earlier in March, there was some sleet reports even with 50°F+ temps!
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:41 pm
user:null wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:07 pm
jasons2k wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:44 pm I would actually enjoy winter more in Colorado than Texas. 30’s and 40’s, overcast with a cold rain and blustery winds just plain suck.
But Colorado would get even colder, more blustery than 30s-40s though. Albeit, the eastern side cold more like the plains with shallow cold outbreaks ... but cold in western areas (like Grand Junction) is more high elevation + stuck inversions.

Speaking of Texas winter...

Image
Jason does like snow though.
Yes! And it’s much drier. You have a lot of days where yeah, the temp on the thermometer may look frigid, but with the sun out and low humidity - it feels just fine. I have no problem being up in the mountains in a blizzard with a fire going, and being in a structure built for severe cold (no worries). That’s great. It’s supposed to be like that in Colorado or New Mexico (or Montana!!).

But being here and having a cold rain in the 30’s, or a severe freeze that busts pipes - no thanks. I’d rather be in Dunedin, Florida playing tennis or golf.
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DoctorMu
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user:null wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 9:32 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:41 pmJason does like snow though.
Never knew that. I do see where he's coming from, regarding alpine regions and such.

Sufficiently cold, dry air aloft can really power things even through much milder surface levels to create good surprises — remember earlier in March, there was some sleet reports even with 50°F+ temps!
20s skiing on powder in the sun will break a sweat at altitude. Sunburn is the biggest concern.
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 7:34 pm My old weather station bit the dust awhile ago, so I finally upgraded to a Davis Vantage Vue. Pretty excited. Should be arriving in a few days.
I've owned a vantage vue for years it's a great weather station the newer ones have a touch screen and i'm thinking about upgrading to one.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Down to 37 in CoCo. Great hunt this morning. About to go run now! Love this weather. It feels like the holidays.
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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Yes it does! Run well, my friend.
Cpv17
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Hearing Jedd Fisch will be the next A&M head coach. Could be just a rumor but that’s what I’m hearing.
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tireman4
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As long as our coach, Jamey Chadwell, stays at Liberty, I am a happy camper. Beautiful day today, highs near 60
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2023 11:46 am Hearing Jedd Fisch will be the next A&M head coach. Could be just a rumor but that’s what I’m hearing.
All I’m saying is tap the brakes on that.

I know who it won’t be but no one knows who it will be. You can cross Traylor, Elko and Schumann off the list. Decision makers did not want to move in those directions.

Gun to my head, it’s either Freeman or Fisch
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Cpv17
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Going to be an ugly day for Thanksgiving tomorrow but at least it won’t be warm and muggy.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2023 8:40 am Down to 37 in CoCo. Great hunt this morning. About to go run now! Love this weather. It feels like the holidays.
Same here. We had to take our tropical plant in.

Another beautiful day today. Friday looks perfect. T'giving for us should have transient clouds, maybe a shower, then clearing.
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DoctorMu
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Day, Lanning, or DeBoer.

Fisch is the fallback IMO.
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Happy Thanksgiving
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