March 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Equal chances aren’t that bad. We’ll see.
Thundersleet
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What of the month of March temp wise? What does it look like or rather what is it looking like?
Stratton20
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The first two weeks of march look near normal to below normal at times, precipitation wise, probably normal
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jasons2k
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89 here today and it’s only February.

As for spring into summer, we need to get prepared for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring. Not just because it’s hot today, but because the way the recent and forecast trends are unfolding. We are drying out fast and the dryness of Northern Mexico & SW Texas is going to feedback into the cap. We’ll still get some cold fronts but look for them to be mostly dry and underperforming with rain totals.
Thundersleet
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I accept this unseasonably warm and hot weather this nation has been getting for nearly two weeks to this date. As much as I would rather the temp itself to be fifty-five degrees F and under for the high and in the 30’s with a handful of upper-mid twenties for lows. Just how I feel about it.
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Ptarmigan
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:47 am Not a great way to start March.

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I am not likely to put stock in long term forecast. Anything can happen.
Stratton20
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Folks its clear is day, things are looking really bad for precipitation in march and beyond, I see a lot of dry weather ahead, nothing suggests a return to a wet pattern at least not in the next 3-4 weeks, this could get ugly
Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:57 pm Folks its clear is day, things are looking really bad for precipitation in march and beyond, I see a lot of dry weather ahead, nothing suggests a return to a wet pattern at least not in the next 3-4 weeks, this could get ugly
Perfect. Just in time for scorching temps, too. Damnit, I hate this cycle we have been in.
Cromagnum
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As if my yard doesn't look bad enough already.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:54 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:47 am Not a great way to start March.

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I am not likely to put stock in long term forecast. Anything can happen.
That's a lot of Mexican cap waiting to squelch any rain
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DoctorMu
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Mega rain on the GFS east of I-45 and especially the LA border. You can almost see the cap undercutting everything near the coast.

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DoctorMu
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There's a front about the 11th with a modest chance of rain on CMC, GFS.
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jasons2k
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Well I was supposed to get .10 - .25” overnight and didn’t get a drop.

This will be the story of spring and summer.

And so it begins…
Stratton20
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New AI euro model added to tropical tidbits, first time ive seen that, comes out 4 times a day like the GFS, goes out through 360 hours, it will be interesting to see how this model preforms
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DoctorMu
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69°F, low humidity, sunshine and blue skies. Almost no insects. A/C is off. Taking in the last hour of pure joy before the foothills of The Big Suck arrive.

Bottle this and give me every day until August and football season. Then I could take a month of blazing heat.

I remain very concerned that the Big Cap could lead to another really Big Suck.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:05 pm New AI euro model added to tropical tidbits, first time I've seen that, comes out 4 times a day like the GFS, goes out through 360 hours, it will be interesting to see how this model preforms
It will probably suck. AI is programmed by humans and is way overrated. AI recently sent my grant application to the wrong set of reviewers, which could be costly. A human program officer would have sent it to the right place.

So, if you thought businesses or government were bad with people...they are worse without. :roll: :lol:

I hope premature AI developers are sentenced to 5 years of listening to an automated phone tree.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu Levi Cowan said it will likely do pretty well with handeling the tracks of tropical systems, so i guess this summer will be a good test for it, but yeah im kinda on the fence about adding AI modeling, but it certainly is intriguing for sure
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DoctorMu
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OK. We have the official AI challenge for the first 2 weeks or half of March. I'll bet on CMC as the most accurate. Lay your wagering $$ down! EuroAI is much more optimistic:

"You're new around here!"

We're turn Euro AI into a bitter, Battered Aggie Syndrome skeptic soon enough! :lol:

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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:55 pm DoctorMu Levi Cowan said it will likely do pretty well with handeling the tracks of tropical systems, so i guess this summer will be a good test for it, but yeah im kinda on the fence about adding AI modeling, but it certainly is intriguing for sure
IBM made a computer called Deep Blue that was really good at playing chess. Deep Blue beat Russian master Garry Kasparaov in the 90s. NOAA adapted Deep Blue to predict the weather. Modeling was ancient back then. The first storm that Deep Blue was tasked with predicting was a Nor'easter off the Atlantic coast. DB predicted 3 inches of snow in the mountains of NC and VA. There were over 30 inches of snow instead.

All jesting aside, I could see Euro AI handling tropical system paths OK. There are fewer variables than active or unsettled day-to-day weather. The analysis and prediction of TS's centers around upper level highs and troughs.
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Ptarmigan
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:41 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:05 pm New AI euro model added to tropical tidbits, first time I've seen that, comes out 4 times a day like the GFS, goes out through 360 hours, it will be interesting to see how this model preforms
It will probably suck. AI is programmed by humans and is way overrated. AI recently sent my grant application to the wrong set of reviewers, which could be costly. A human program officer would have sent it to the right place.

So, if you thought businesses or government were bad with people...they are worse without. :roll: :lol:

I hope premature AI developers are sentenced to 5 years of listening to an automated phone tree.
Now, quantum computer would be great for weather forecasting.
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