May 2021:

[txbear]

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

[Cpv17]

hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

I would love to understand how to read those. I’m clueless lol

[txbear]

hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

I would love to understand how to read those. I’m clueless lol

Same here! I'm running off limited searches on NWS, SPC, etc. to get some intro knowledge, but would really like to get a much better idea of what I'm seeing in these things.

- I see surfaced based CAPE (energy levels) in the data below the actual chart
- The spread from the red air temp line and the lifted parcel dotted white line is decently big (anything near or to the right of the dotted line would be capped environment)
- Wind barbs out of the SW and increasing in strength particularly at 700mb
- Shear value from SFC - 3km just below the chart has a value of 29; which is conducive for supercells.

But like I said, open to correction and help!

[BlueJay]

Rumbling of thunder and darkening of skies in The Woodlands.

[jasons2k]

There a lot of good online tutorials on YouTube now.

We also have a sub-forum on Storm2k dedicated to meteorology with lots of useful information.

Rumbles of thunder here too. Looking to see if an outflow gets spit out this way. The storm to the north/northwest is not what it was, either (thankfully)

[don]

hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

Seems correct to me , the main threat today will be large hail. There are new thunderstorms developing just to the east of I-35,that looks to be the beginning of the storm complex expected to move through over the next few hours.

[Cromagnum]

Already firing up on the north side of the area and more out west.

[jasons2k]

Outflow on the way. These showers moving-in are low-topped and can’t bust the cap, at least so far. Things could go boom or this party could be over real quick - the usual feast or famine.

[Cromagnum]

As soon as the cells get to the LA state line the storms are blowing up.

[jasons2k]

Just a thin line of showers here with .05”

That’s OK - we can dry out a little...emphasis on a little.

[jasons2k]

As soon as the cells get to the LA state line the storms are blowing up.

Right? And yes, like clockwork, the cell by IAH busts through as soon as the line passed.

[txbear]

Think the HRRR got the storms right in general, location was off though with the biggest cluster going north and east...sound familiar? Models are models, not crystal balls.

Cap must be pretty stout south and west considering the dynamics in play. A little more in rain to add to the "reserve tank" in preparation for summer would've been nice.

[Cpv17]

Think the HRRR got the storms right in general, location was off though with the biggest cluster going north and east...sound familiar? Models are models, not crystal balls.

Cap must be pretty stout south and west considering the dynamics in play. A little more in rain to add to the "reserve tank" in preparation for summer would've been nice.

Maybe next week. Rest of this week looks dry.

[don]

Models are showing a stormy pattern again next week as a slow moving front stalls near the coast.With disturbances moving over the state in the northwest flow aloft.We'll see if the trends continue...

[jasons2k]

Oh it’s only 10 degrees warmer than forecast....nothing to see here....

[djmike]

A whole lot of nothing for me in Beaumont. Knew it. Well 2 maaaaaybe 3 drops.

[Cpv17]

Models are showing a stormy pattern again next week as a slow moving front stalls near the coast.With disturbances moving over the state in the northwest flow aloft.We'll see if the trends continue...

The CPC is seeing this as well:







Definitely looks like a wet pattern could be in the works.

[Cromagnum]

Feels really nice outside this morning.

[unome]

Texas' dry-line weather on May 3rd made the NOAA / NESDIS Image of the Day

with a great explaination of dry-line storm formation

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/stat ... 2673552389
https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/goe ... s-dry-line

[DoctorMu]

If it feels hotter and in the last decade WHEN it (finally) rains it pours (like Harvey and Memorial Day? events), then you're right!

https://www.chron.com/weather/article/g ... 6a35e392f3