Ensembles are indeed just picking up something disorganized near the Texas gulf coast. That works for me. The grass is starting to dry out.
General Weather Discussions and Analysis
After a lot more model consistency than what we have been seeing, at least for a start.
It's still early in the season and shear might be an issue. That in itself will cause potential forecast headaches...
Ah i gotcha, well have you seen the latest CMC and GFS runs, both have a very similar scenario, we might be seeing signs that the models are starting to come into better agreement
The thing is that it's essentially the same system. The NHC never jumped the gun, they were just tracking and highlighting what was slowly happening in the Caribbean and continues to evolve.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:54 pmYep. It’s been highlighted there for awhile now. I was never concerned about the area the NHC had highlighted in the Caribbean. This possible system would be an EPAC crossover into the BOC.
It's a typical, slow crawling evolution of a CAG (Central American Gyre, or monsoonal low) that year after year can cause fits in forecasting and models.
Definitely a pita for any of us that follows these potential early systems.
Morning update from Jeff:
Impressive heat ridge of high pressure is building over the SW US and will continue to build into the weekend and next week with heights of potentially 600dm located over portions of Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. This ridge extends NE into the US central plains with SE TX on the east/southeast side of the heat dome. This high pressure ridge will influence our weather into the weekend, but then begins to retreat toward the W and NW by late in the weekend and early next week allowing disturbances to approach from the NE as early as Sunday afternoon with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Will have to keep an eye on this period as sometimes these “NE flow” event can produce some strong and severe thunderstorms over the region.
Gulf of Mexico Late Next Week:
There is and has been “lots” of talk about the potential for some sort of tropical system to form in the southern Gulf of Mexico late next week. Global model solutions continue with the 00Z runs to show surface low pressure forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico toward the middle to end of next week and then moving generally northward. This system appears to evolve from the current area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific south of Mexico. While there is a lot to be worked out on the “when” and “where” and “how organized” there continues to be enough consistency in the guidance to signal that something may develop. Regardless of development a significant surge of tropical moisture looks at least possible toward the NW Gulf/Texas by the end of next week with at the very least an increase in rain chances. For now something to monitor in the coming days.
A good reminder we are in hurricane season and now is a good time to make sure your plans and kits are fully stocked and ready for any potential threats that we may face this season.
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District