June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Rip76 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:12 am Lord it’s going to be hot.
Expecting 100°F again. NOAA and TWC forecasts are low and higher chance of rain than is likely. Local KBTX has 97°F Sunday, which is more realistic.

The GoM firehose is likely going to be from around Baton Rouge/Morgan City east into the Florida panhandle.
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DoctorMu
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All of Florida will see Gulf moisture. Beginning in mid-June, it rains nearly every day in Florida through September. Usually the rain is brief, but can be sustained when tropical moisture streams in. Mid October - May are prime season for a vaca.
Stratton20
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newest NHC update has no change, they also didnt update the systems location as they still believe the main circulation is down by mexico
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DoctorMu
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The exact center of a nascent, broad system like this is nearly irrelevant, except for all the bad initiation that the models depend on.
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DoctorMu
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I'm a little surprised NOAA has POPs up to 50% in CLL on Saturday. We'll see.

The long term forecast keeps the Death Ridge away...for now.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Forecast remains generally on track with VFR conditions expected
to prevail through the duration of the TAF period. Winds will
remain out of the east/northeast at around 5-10 kts during the
afternoon today. High-resolution models continue to indicate the
formation of scattered thunderstorms across the metro terminals
and southward at around 21Z, with most convection dissipating
after sunset. Should any storms approach terminals, there is a
potential for brief gusty winds and periods of reduced visibility
due to rainfall.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Hot again today? You betcha, hot again today. Like yesterday
morning, the forecast heat index is coming in just under the heat
advisory threshold for today. But keep track of things this
morning - any hotter than forecast, and a heat advisory will need
to be issued, again like yesterday.

And with each day that passes, we continue to get closer to seeing
whether or not we will see development of a tropical cyclone in
the Bay of Campeche. We still have a disorganized mass of showers
and thunderstorms down there, but there`s still a pretty strong
consensus that we`ll see things become more organized over the
next couple of days. Information will continue to flow from here
and NHC - as things play out, we`ll be providing the latest on
what`s been happening and what is expected into this weekend.

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

As the Western US continues to be dominated by a strong heat
ridge, we sit on its fringe, getting some of the associated
unseasonable heat, but also some afternoon showers and storms
since we`re removed from the strongest subsidence out west.
I
expect that today will feel relatively similar to yesterday - the
best chances look to be on/around a weak seabreeze, in the rough
vicinity of I-10 and US-59.
But that`s a real fuzzy estimate.

With much of today looking to feature light northeast to east
winds, this does look to bring in just the slightest bit of drier
air, and it may be just enough to hold back convection a little
more today. The HRRR seems to be generally in line with the model
consensus, holding off storm development until around 4 pm, and
winding down towards 8 pm.
Did broaden the window for those PoPs,
especially on the front end in the afternoon in our forecast. The
precipitable water values in the 1.6 inch range is not
impressively high this time of year; but I think it`s high
enough, with us far enough removed from the strongest ridging,
that the first showers may crop up a little earlier in the
afternoon.

Then we can look for another warm night into Thursday morning,
setting us up for - you guessed it, another hot Thursday with an
opportunity for isolated to scattered showers and storms firing
in the afternoon, coming to an end in the evening.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Fri`s forecast for SE TX will be largely dependent on the possible
happenings in the Gulf. Current NHC numbers are indicating a very
chance of some kind of development by late Thur/Fri as the system
moves into western Gulf. Global models are continuing to track it
toward and then eventually into coast around the Sabine Pass area
early Sat. Once again...it cannot be stressed enough that without
a center the models are going to struggle with the ultimate track
and intensity. But of note are a couple on trends the models have
been keeping: progged shear should keep the system fairly raggedy
looking and the other is that the bulk of the moisture/rains will
likely have a greater impact on LA initially.

So, for Fri, we should be looking at the better POPs at/along the
coast and the Gulf waters. Drier air entraining around the system
should help to keep heat index values for most inland locations.
Heading into Fri night/Sat the higher POPs will continue over the
E/SE portions of the CWA (with a sharp demarcation of high to nil
POPs from the SE to the NW).
As the system moves further away Sun,
a weak shear axis looks to develop across the TX/LA coasts in its
wake. This along with another possible surge of deep tropical PWs
should help keep scattered rain chances in for SE TX for Sun/Mon.
(In fact, GFS progs of PWs from 2.3-2.5 inches for Sun/Mon may be
something to keep an eye on if this does verify.) The much weaken-
ed upper ridge and return of light onshore winds by next Tues (on
through much of next week) does seem to point that a more typical
summertime pattern will be emerging (i.e. an active seabreeze and
highs in the lower to mid 90s).

MARINE...

Low seas along with variable, diurnally driven winds are expected to
continue through early Thurs...but things should be ramping up Thurs
afternoon as the system currently over the Bay of Campeche begins to
develop/move into the western Gulf. SCA conditions are should be on-
going by Thur night and Fri morning across our near/offshore waters.
As the tropical system approaches the TX coast (and potentially into
our marine waters), we could see seas of 8+ feet and winds 25+ knots
through Sat. Conditions should start to improve by Sun as the system
moves out to the NE...but the moderate/strong onshore winds develop-
ing in its wake could linger into the start of next week.

Elevated tide levels are forecast to develop Thur, peaking Fri night
and Sat. P-ETSS guidance envelope indicating tide levels near 4 feet
possible. Rip currents a good bet during the Thurs-Sat time frame as
well.

TROPICAL...

The chances of development continue to slowly tick up with Invest
92L. With the 2am tropical weather outlook from NHC, development
potential is up to medium (60 percent) in the next 48 hours, and
high (90 percent) in the next 5 days. Model guidance continues to
be pretty bullish on eventually getting a tropical cyclone out of
this mess, though there is still a fair amount of spread in what
happens from there. Of course, this is not really a surprise -
without a defined low pressure center to work off of, the models
are having to correctly forecast BOTH what everything will
consolidate around, and then what it will do from there. Given
that we are looking for development out of a broad gyre, that is
difficult.

Regardless of what happens, this feature will be a very important
part of the forecast from Friday into the weekend. Please check
back periodically for the latest information from us and NHC as
the situation evolves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 75 96 74 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 97 76 97 76 95 / 20 20 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 92 81 91 / 20 10 20 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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Texaspirate11
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HGX NWS update on 92L

https://youtu.be/MntG_qvGdzw
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txbear
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For what it's worth, USAF Hurricane Hunters TDY to Ellington. Suspect will see flights and data soon.

Edit: Looks like they're off on first recon...callsign TEAL95
Last edited by txbear on Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
davidiowx
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Well for all the NAM fans out there :lol: :lol: this run doesn’t even have the storm go into Louisiana! Right into Galveston and towards Lufkin, hooks a quick left west then off to the NE. Most of the precip is on the east side, which looks like that’s high confidence unless it wraps up. Never know though.
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sambucol
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Is SETX out of the target area now? I’m seeing different tracks and quite frankly, it’s getting confusing on what to believe. I don’t think a center has formed yet. But who knows 🤷‍♀️
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