January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

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wxman57
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Except for that Halloween snowstorm, it's been rather quiet this winter so far. In December, Bush airport has averaged -0.3F below normal as of the 27th. There are very long-term signals of potential very cold air in NW Canada, but without any snow pack to speak of, we won't have much of a winter down here for the next few weeks at least.
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Could we be entering another cold phase like in the 1970s? The late 1970s from 1976 to 1979 saw some of the coldest winters on record, back to back winters!

National Temperate Ranking December to February 1895-2011
1971-1972 33.17°F 58th La Nina
1972-1973 31.74°F 29th El Nino
1973-1974 33.85°F 79th La Nina
1974-1975 33.61°F 70th La Nina
1975-1976 35.21°F 101st La Nina
1976-1977 30.67°F 11th El Nino
1977-1978 29.68°F 7th El Nino
1978-1979 27.29°F 1st Neutral

1979-1980 33.95°F 84th Neutral

The late 1970s were cold, especially from 1976 to 1979. 1978-1979 is the coldest winter on record! :cold: The winter of 1975-1976 was quite warm and one of the warmest on record. Interesting how it went from warm to cold.


2008-2009 33.65°F 76th La Nina
2009-2010 31.12°F 15th El Nino
2010-2011 32.15°F 37th La Nina
2011-2012 La Nina

1973-1974 and 2010-2011 had strong La Nina, yet they were not warm winters.


Temperature Ranking
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ranks.php

ENSO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
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Praying for a severe cold outbreak! Early WAGs on the Summer forecast is cooler than normal, Thank God, but still dry.

I live in Houston for the economy, not because of the Weather. I really need at least a flash of harsh winter weather.

100 degree heat can go die a slow painful death... give me 20 degrees every day of the year over that 100 degree crap.
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wxman57
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I'm looking at some high-res European model data that goes out 4 weeks now. You can't get this online (for free). The data include surface temperature anomalies and 850mb temperature anomalies through January 23rd. Here's what I see:

Week 1 (Dec 27-Jan 2)
Surface temps 1-2F above normal across SE TX through next Monday and 15-20F above normal across the Northern Plains.

Week 2 (Jan 3-9)
Surface temps near normal across SE TX and 15-20F above normal from the Central Plains through western Canada

Week 3 (Jan 10-16)
Surface temps 2-4F above normal across SE TX and 4-8F above normal from Nebraska through southwest Canada.

Week 4 (Jan 17-23)
Surface temps 4F above normal across SE TX and 6-8F above normal across most of the central and northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the Ohio Valley. Temps in western and NW Canada dropping to 2-4F below normal.

At 850mb (5000 ft), temps are well above normal across the U.S. and western Canada through the next 3 weeks. dropping to 2-3C below normal across western Canada in week 4.

The GFS is in basic agreement with the European model, which would mean no significant cold outbreaks through at least the first 3 weeks of January and possibly through January. There are forecasts of cooling in western Canada by the 4th week of January, though. This could lead to a cold outbreak early in February that might drop our temps significantly below freezing.
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srainhoutx
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It looks like wxman57 will get his wish for warmer weather...for a while, anyway... ;)
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Ptarmigan
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Upper Texas Coast Temperate Ranking December to February 1895-2011
1969-1970 53.63°F 30th El Nino
1970-1971 58.80°F 105th La Nina
1971-1972 58.37°F 101st La Nina
1972-1973 51.03°F 9th El Nino
1973-1974 55.73°F 71st La Nina
1974-1975 56.00°F 78th La Nina
1975-1976 55.63°F 68th La Nina
1976-1977 50.23°F 5th El Nino
1977-1978 48.90°F 1st El Nino
1978-1979 50.70°F 8th Neutral

1979-1980 54.00°F 37th Neutral

The 1970s were cold, especially from 1976 to 1979. 1977-1978 is the coldest winter on record! Talk about back to back record setting cold winters! Four of the top 10 coldest winters occurred in the 1970s. Could we see a repeat of the 1970s? I think so.


2008-2009 57.33°F 96th La Nina
2009-2010 49.63°F 2nd El Nino
2010-2011 54.03°F 38th La Nina
2011-2012 La Nina

2009-2010 was quite cold. It was following a warm winter in 2008-2009. I remember the discussion of lack of warmth in the Winter of 2009-2010.

1973-1974 and 2010-2011 had strong La Nina, yet they were not overtly warm winters.


Temperature Ranking
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ranks.php

ENSO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
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The overnight GFS and to some extent, the Euro are suggesting a return to a bit more active pattern. After a cold front passes Sunday bring breezy and cool conditions, a light freeze is possible Monday night/Tuesday morning for our northern areas. As high pressure settles over E Texas Tuesday afternoon, upper 20’s to low 30’s seem possible with excellent radiational cooling. The progressive pattern looks to continue next week with a NW flow aloft. The fly in the ointment begins to appear later in the week as an upper air disturbance slides S along the W Coast. Some cold air may begin to spill S as a disturbance in the northern stream treks SE from the Pacific NW into the Plains. The SW low, via guidance, suggests that a disturbance will cross Texas over the weekend increasing precip chances once again.

In the longer range, there is some indications that the PV over Alaska will begin to relax and high pressure builds allowing much colder air to begin to pool in NW Canada. It may take a couple of weeks for the pattern to shift, but early indications are changes may be ahead as we enter the second half of January.
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NAO and AO are hard to predict and can change quickly. Most of the cold air is over Alaska. Also, there is the PNA.

The February 1989 Freeze is interesting that the NAO and AO was positive, while PNA was negative. It was also in a La Nina, like the January/February 1951 Freeze. The 1951 was a hard and deep freeze. The 1989 freeze was a shallow freeze.

1951
ENSO = La Nina
NAO = Positive
AO = Negative
PNA = Negative

1989
ENSO = La Nina
NAO = Positive
AO = Positive
PNA = Negative
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Yay...our first freeze of 2012
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro and GFS are sniffing another cut off low to our S and W as we saw many times during the month of December for the first weekend in January...
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JackCruz
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18Z yesterday
Image

18Z Tuesday (27th)

Image
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JackCruz
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Very off topic and not related to Texas weather in any way but....

Accuweather, weather channel, myforecast.com etc are forecasting a low for Tallahassee, Florida on Monday at 25 degrees and Tuesday night the low should be around 26 degrees, Wednesday night another possible freeze, Thursday night maybe a few degrees above the freeze mark...... interesting...nothing that interesting around the Houston area besides 32 degress :( but I'll take it :D

Just couple days ago..that cold air mass was aimed at Houston directly...now it's shifted more towards the East ...aimed at Florida.
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I dont see a hard freeze this winter....for one the snow pack up north is really sparse for Dec. It could change yes but we are into January now with about another 8-10 weeks of winter....time is ticking...
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wxman57
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JackCruz wrote:Very off topic and not related to Texas weather in any way but....

Accuweather, weather channel, myforecast.com etc are forecasting a low for Tallahassee, Florida on Monday at 25 degrees and Tuesday night the low should be around 26 degrees, Wednesday night another possible freeze, Thursday night maybe a few degrees above the freeze mark...... interesting...nothing that interesting around the Houston area besides 32 degrees :( but I'll take it :D

Just couple days ago..that cold air mass was aimed at Houston directly...now it's shifted more towards the East ...aimed at Florida.
Keeping in mind that those forecasts are most likely not touched by a meteorologist, both the Euro and GFS forecast only around 38-40 in the Tallahassee area Monday and 30-32 on Tuesday. Nothing to indicate any colder, as there just isn't much cold behind the cold front. Temperatures behind it are barely freezing in Montana!
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The guidance is in good agreement suggesting a cold front will pass overnight into early New Years morning and should be off the coast by daybreak. A light freeze still appears to be likely Monday and Tuesday nights before a warm up begins.

Looking ahead to next weekend, the operational guidance is suggesting an upper low sliding S into the Great Basin and slowly ejecting E bringing a chance of rain for the first weekend in January.
12312011 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif
Looking a bit further ahead into the long range, the GFS ensembles are suggesting a nice cool down across NW Canada and hints of a building Ridge a touch further W in the N Pacific (+PNA) with a slight decrease in the AO index which has been raging very positive for over 43 day. The operational GFS even hints at a bit of blocking (-NAO) near Greenland that may be the beginning of a pattern change for the second half of January.
12312011 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA360.gif
12312011 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zGFSEnsembles850mbTAnomalyNA360.gif
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wxman57 wrote:
JackCruz wrote:Very off topic and not related to Texas weather in any way but....

Accuweather, weather channel, myforecast.com etc are forecasting a low for Tallahassee, Florida on Monday at 25 degrees and Tuesday night the low should be around 26 degrees, Wednesday night another possible freeze, Thursday night maybe a few degrees above the freeze mark...... interesting...nothing that interesting around the Houston area besides 32 degrees :( but I'll take it :D

Just couple days ago..that cold air mass was aimed at Houston directly...now it's shifted more towards the East ...aimed at Florida.
Keeping in mind that those forecasts are most likely not touched by a meteorologist, both the Euro and GFS forecast only around 38-40 in the Tallahassee area Monday and 30-32 on Tuesday. Nothing to indicate any colder, as there just isn't much cold behind the cold front. Temperatures behind it are barely freezing in Montana!
NWS Montgomery is calling for 23 Monday night, and 21 Tuesday night.........
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srainhoutx
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cajun wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
JackCruz wrote:Very off topic and not related to Texas weather in any way but....

Accuweather, weather channel, myforecast.com etc are forecasting a low for Tallahassee, Florida on Monday at 25 degrees and Tuesday night the low should be around 26 degrees, Wednesday night another possible freeze, Thursday night maybe a few degrees above the freeze mark...... interesting...nothing that interesting around the Houston area besides 32 degrees :( but I'll take it :D

Just couple days ago..that cold air mass was aimed at Houston directly...now it's shifted more towards the East ...aimed at Florida.
Keeping in mind that those forecasts are most likely not touched by a meteorologist, both the Euro and GFS forecast only around 38-40 in the Tallahassee area Monday and 30-32 on Tuesday. Nothing to indicate any colder, as there just isn't much cold behind the cold front. Temperatures behind it are barely freezing in Montana!
NWS Montgomery is calling for 23 Monday night, and 21 Tuesday night.........
Winter Storm Watches may be ahead for the Southern Appalachians as well... ;)
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wxman57
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cajun wrote: NWS Montgomery is calling for 23 Monday night, and 21 Tuesday night.........
Doesn't look like it'll get that cold, to me.
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NWS Jax is calling for 24 degrees here in town and 21 in outlying areas for Tuesday night. Now i'm happy a lot of the troughs go east :)
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z operational GFS continues to advertise some chilly air building in NW Canada and a possible wintry weather event for portions of Texas mid January. This makes about 5-7 days worth of output from the GFS operational and ensemble runs suggesting a return to 'colder weather' in the mid January time frame.
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