January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[JackCruz]

18Z yesterday


18Z Tuesday (27th)

[JackCruz]

Very off topic and not related to Texas weather in any way but....

Accuweather, weather channel, myforecast.com etc are forecasting a low for Tallahassee, Florida on Monday at 25 degrees and Tuesday night the low should be around 26 degrees, Wednesday night another possible freeze, Thursday night maybe a few degrees above the freeze mark...... interesting...nothing that interesting around the Houston area besides 32 degress but I'll take it

Just couple days ago..that cold air mass was aimed at Houston directly...now it's shifted more towards the East ...aimed at Florida.

[Paul]

I dont see a hard freeze this winter....for one the snow pack up north is really sparse for Dec. It could change yes but we are into January now with about another 8-10 weeks of winter....time is ticking...

[wxman57]

Very off topic and not related to Texas weather in any way but....

Accuweather, weather channel, myforecast.com etc are forecasting a low for Tallahassee, Florida on Monday at 25 degrees and Tuesday night the low should be around 26 degrees, Wednesday night another possible freeze, Thursday night maybe a few degrees above the freeze mark...... interesting...nothing that interesting around the Houston area besides 32 degrees but I'll take it

Just couple days ago..that cold air mass was aimed at Houston directly...now it's shifted more towards the East ...aimed at Florida.

Keeping in mind that those forecasts are most likely not touched by a meteorologist, both the Euro and GFS forecast only around 38-40 in the Tallahassee area Monday and 30-32 on Tuesday. Nothing to indicate any colder, as there just isn't much cold behind the cold front. Temperatures behind it are barely freezing in Montana!

[srainhoutx]

The guidance is in good agreement suggesting a cold front will pass overnight into early New Years morning and should be off the coast by daybreak. A light freeze still appears to be likely Monday and Tuesday nights before a warm up begins.

Looking ahead to next weekend, the operational guidance is suggesting an upper low sliding S into the Great Basin and slowly ejecting E bringing a chance of rain for the first weekend in January.

12312011 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif

Looking a bit further ahead into the long range, the GFS ensembles are suggesting a nice cool down across NW Canada and hints of a building Ridge a touch further W in the N Pacific (+PNA) with a slight decrease in the AO index which has been raging very positive for over 43 day. The operational GFS even hints at a bit of blocking (-NAO) near Greenland that may be the beginning of a pattern change for the second half of January.

12312011 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA360.gif

12312011 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zGFSEnsembles850mbTAnomalyNA360.gif

[cajun]

Very off topic and not related to Texas weather in any way but....

Accuweather, weather channel, myforecast.com etc are forecasting a low for Tallahassee, Florida on Monday at 25 degrees and Tuesday night the low should be around 26 degrees, Wednesday night another possible freeze, Thursday night maybe a few degrees above the freeze mark...... interesting...nothing that interesting around the Houston area besides 32 degrees but I'll take it

Just couple days ago..that cold air mass was aimed at Houston directly...now it's shifted more towards the East ...aimed at Florida.

Keeping in mind that those forecasts are most likely not touched by a meteorologist, both the Euro and GFS forecast only around 38-40 in the Tallahassee area Monday and 30-32 on Tuesday. Nothing to indicate any colder, as there just isn't much cold behind the cold front. Temperatures behind it are barely freezing in Montana!

NWS Montgomery is calling for 23 Monday night, and 21 Tuesday night.........

[srainhoutx]

Very off topic and not related to Texas weather in any way but....

Accuweather, weather channel, myforecast.com etc are forecasting a low for Tallahassee, Florida on Monday at 25 degrees and Tuesday night the low should be around 26 degrees, Wednesday night another possible freeze, Thursday night maybe a few degrees above the freeze mark...... interesting...nothing that interesting around the Houston area besides 32 degrees but I'll take it

Just couple days ago..that cold air mass was aimed at Houston directly...now it's shifted more towards the East ...aimed at Florida.

Keeping in mind that those forecasts are most likely not touched by a meteorologist, both the Euro and GFS forecast only around 38-40 in the Tallahassee area Monday and 30-32 on Tuesday. Nothing to indicate any colder, as there just isn't much cold behind the cold front. Temperatures behind it are barely freezing in Montana!

NWS Montgomery is calling for 23 Monday night, and 21 Tuesday night.........

Winter Storm Watches may be ahead for the Southern Appalachians as well...

[wxman57]

NWS Montgomery is calling for 23 Monday night, and 21 Tuesday night.........

Doesn't look like it'll get that cold, to me.

[TexasMetBlake]

NWS Jax is calling for 24 degrees here in town and 21 in outlying areas for Tuesday night. Now i'm happy a lot of the troughs go east

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z operational GFS continues to advertise some chilly air building in NW Canada and a possible wintry weather event for portions of Texas mid January. This makes about 5-7 days worth of output from the GFS operational and ensemble runs suggesting a return to 'colder weather' in the mid January time frame.

[srainhoutx]

Interestingly, the GFS insists and has for a while, that the 'coldest air of the season' will be on our side of the globe as we enter the mid-late January time frame.

[JackCruz]

Some sites have lowered the low temps to 22 and 23 degrees for Tallahassee, Fl.
WCTV are saying that they are still on for lows in the 20s http://www.wctv.tv/weather


Fox Tallahassee going with lows in the mid to lower 20s http://www.myfoxtallahassee.com/weather

I'm a little bit jealous, to be honest.

[ticka1]

What will be the temp this evening and around midnight? When is the cold front coming through? Will it be foggy again tonight?

[srainhoutx]

It should be warm and foggy by mid-night, ticka1. HGX is thinking the front will pass College Station around the mid-night time frame. The front is racing S and E through the Panhandle at this hour with gusty NW winds in its wake. Happy New Year everyone!

[JackCruz]

Still far out....but..it's fun to look at nevertheless.

Happy New Year everybody!

[wxman57]

I don't think Houston will see a light freeze this week. Coldest morning will definitely be Tuesday - mid to upper 30s. Of course, that means Conroe will be in the 20s. That thermometer must be near a freezer door.

[srainhoutx]

There is very little agreement via the 00Z guidance regarding next weekend. The Euro/Canadian suggests an upper low dropping S into the Southern Rockies. The Euro would have a closed cold core upper low slowly crossing Central/SE TX Monday into Tuesday (1/9-10). The UKMET suggests the upper low will travel across S Texas next weekend while the GFS has lost the closed low all together keeping nothing but an open trough passing to our N and then redeveloping a trough to our E.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS came back to its senses and is now in agreement with the 00Z Operational Euro suggesting a robust short wave/upper air disturbance will trek across Central/SE Texas a week from tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite of operationals is in and there is some agreement regarding a robust upper low developing to our W. As we saw in December, these upper low give guidance fits and are very difficult to forecast beyond the 3-5 day range. What does appear likely is another unsettled pattern will develop next weekend with rains and possible coastal trough/low development as the U/L ejects NE.

01012012 12Z Euro 12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif

Looking a bit further out, the GFS and its ensembles continue to advertise a stormy pattern for mid January. The 12Z OP Euro is beginning to get into range for that period and it is also 'sniffing' some very chilly air building in NW Canada.

01012012 12Z Euro Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240.gif

[JackCruz]