February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[Portastorm]

Alright ... time to start a new topic and the ensuing discussion of how we're going to get Arctic air into south central and southeast Texas and some snow/ice to foil wxman57's biking plans for the month!

[JackCruz]

Wishful thinking: I have this crazy fantasy that a "rain maker" like the one we saw today....or more so the one we saw last 2 weeks...targeted at SE TX.....will combine with cold air in place and produce 4-6 inches of snow. LOL

Don't judge me...yes I know we live in Houston

I can smell the headlines: "Blizzard conditions and record snow accumulations hits Houston"

couple days ago....

Well if nothing happens....cheers to next winter can't wait!

[BiggieSmalls]

The short answer to the topic's question? Probably not.

I'll wait for mets who actually know what they're talking about to confirm my answer.

[srainhoutx]

The short answer to the topic's question? Probably not.

I'll wait for mets who actually know what they're talking about to confirm my answer.

Would that be those same Mets that called for a 'hot and dry' winter...?...

[JackCruz]

HA! Srain....I LOVE YOU!

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead as February nears, there are some indications that a change is lurking. I mentioned in the January thread that a mountain torque was developing across Eurasia and that the MJO was waking up from the never ending orbit near the 'circle of death'. The 00Z ensembles suggest the +WPO pattern will shift to that of a -EPO and a nice +PNA ridge develops in the NE Pacific. While the AO still remains somewhat positive, a slow relaxation toward a -AO is suggested by the ensembles. What is rather clear is the active Pacific pattern that has brought us rain since last November with upper lows developing to our W still looks likely. If the MJO forces convective active near the dateline, a +PNA spike would occur. There are many unknowns at this time and when a pattern shift begins, look for model chaos to ensue. We'll see how it all works out, but my hunch is we have not seen the last of cold weather before Spring arrives and February in Texas can bring some very interesting weather.

[snowman65]

I haven't even seen the FIRST of cold weather this winter, much less the LAST of the cold weather......this winter has been a disgrace...

[srainhoutx]

Heh...let the model chaos begin...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
843 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012

VALID 12Z MON JAN 30 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 02 2012

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT BROAD RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST
AT LEAST INTO DAY 5...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING ALONG THE W COAST BY THU DAY 7. THE 00Z/26 ECENS MEAN
SHOWED A STRONG TENDENCY TOWARDS MORE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC
NW/WRN CANADA BY DAY 7. THERE WILL BE BROAD TROUGHING
DOWNSTREAM...AND FAST FLOW WITHIN THE POLAR WESTERLIES. THE
GENERAL LACK OF LONGWAVE AMPLITUDE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION
OF THE POLAR VORTEX BEING FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTH POLE. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS NO PROLONGED COLD SPELLS ACROSS THE LOWER 48.

THE 00Z ECMWF DIGS A CLOSED LOW INTO CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY...A
SOLUTION NOT SEEN ON THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
SUPPORTED BY ONLY TWO OF THE 90 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BOTH
ECMWF MEMBERS. ITS UPPER PATTERN IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
DISALLOW ITS USE FOR THE PRESSURES SINCE ITS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS UNUSABLE. YET SOMEHOW...ITS PRESSURES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE 00Z GFS...DESPITE THE TWO MODELS BECOMING 1200 MILES
APART ON THEIR PREFERRED UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS BY NEXT THURSDAY.
THE 00Z CANADIAN...WHICH LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALOFT...GETS MOSTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF PRESSURE PATTERNS ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER DAY 5
AND BEYOND. THE 00Z UKMET WAS NOT USEFUL IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE COUNTRY EARLY ON...AND SOUTHERN CANADA MID-PERIOD...SO IT
WAS NOT USED.

FOR THE PRESSURES...UPDATED PRELIMS CONTINUED A 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS
COMPROMISE SOLUTION DAYS 3-4. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PRESSURE
FIELD WAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WASHED OUT AND THEREFORE
UNUSABLE...INDICATIVE OF LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
ALOFT...WE PREFERRED A 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE
DAYS 3-4...TAPERING INTO A 50-50 BLEND OF THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS BY
THU DAY 7. FRONTS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS WERE REVISED TO
SHOW BETTER CONTINUITY ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT PATTERN WAS NOT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.

ROTH/FLOOD

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ice, Ice Baby.... give it to me!

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any signs of a pattern change yet, and my cold-mongerer coworker has given up on winter, it seems. But I know that the calendar says that I won't be "safe" from winter for at least another 6 weeks. I have to believe that we'll see temps dip down into the upper 20s at least once in the next 6 weeks. That's plenty of winter for me!

A bit cool for my tastes this weekend, with highs only in the 60s.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm not seeing any signs of a pattern change yet, and my cold-mongerer coworker has given up on winter, it seems. But I know that the calendar says that I won't be "safe" from winter for at least another 6 weeks. I have to believe that we'll see temps dip down into the upper 20s at least once in the next 6 weeks. That's plenty of winter for me!

A bit cool for my tastes this weekend, with highs only in the 60s.

Wuss!

[Belmer]

Long ways out, but Accuweather has here in central TX- Thursday, February 9th at night, "rain" but with a low of 31. Hmm...

[Portastorm]

Obviously wxman57 didn't see the 12z Euro run before he wrote his post. It looks a bit chilly for Texas at the 9-10 day mark. Not sayin' it'll happen, just reporting on the model run.

[wxman57]

I saw the 12Z Euro. We're getting a high resolution of the Euro now that has forecasts valid for every 6 hours out to 240 to 360 hrs. The 12Z Euro has a high in Houston of the upper 50s on the 4th with a low down to a frigid 40 degrees on February 5th, and a light freeze possible in Dallas. BRRRR!!!! It doesn't indicate any significant pattern change yet.

Disclaimer: Can't trust any model out beyond 4-5 days now. No matter what the Euro or GFS is forecasting beyond 5 days, the model output is probably wrong (except when the models are forecasting nice, warm weather for me).

[srainhoutx]

I saw the 12Z Euro. We're getting a high resolution of the Euro now that has forecasts valid for every 6 hours out to 240 to 360 hrs. The 12Z Euro has a high in Houston of the upper 50s on the 4th with a low down to a frigid 40 degrees on February 5th, and a light freeze possible in Dallas. BRRRR!!!! It doesn't indicate any significant pattern change yet.

Disclaimer: Can't trust any model out beyond 4-5 days now. No matter what the Euro or GFS is forecasting beyond 5 days, the model output is probably wrong (except when the models are forecasting nice, warm weather for me).

Oh yeah, those high res long range Euro weeklies have done real well in regard to our 'hot and dry'. But I digress...

[wxman57]

See the disclaimer at the end of my post regarding believability of the long-range models...

[srainhoutx]

Some interesting trends over night via the longer range guidance. West Coast Ridge develops and the zonal flow ends with and big trough developing from the Plains on E. It is notable that the Sub Tropical Jet becomes active as the cold air plunges S from the Plains on E. The la la land GFS even hints of wintry mischief for the northern half of Texas. We will see. But a nice +PNA ridge and -EPO regime does appear in the works. Ridging looks to extend to the N Pole lending to an effective transport of cross Polar flow and strong Polar Vortex develops near the Great Lakes. All that cold in Alaska is flooded with warmth and the ever present vortex that has been present all winter season is finally displaced.

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro Ensemble forecast of surface temperature anomaly out to 360 hrs (Feb 11th) and its forecasting above-normal temps across most of the U.S. for that period and significantly warming temps in NW Canada/Alaska. By hour 360, all the lower 48, most of Canada and even Alaska are above normal by 5-10 deg.

There's just no sign of cold air anywhere.

Disclaimer: You cannot trust model guidance beyond 4-5 days given the current pattern, so it doesn't really matter what the GFS/Euro are forecasting beyond that time frame, they're probably wrong. However, I like to believe them when they're forecasting warm weather.

[Ptarmigan]

Wondering all the cold air and snow is.

http://news.yahoo.com/who-knew/record-s ... 91196.html

[srainhoutx]

Changes are a brewin'... The guidance will flip flop like a fish out of water over the next week, IMO. Enjoy the 'warmth' while it lasts...