April Weather Discussion.
12z NAM Bufkit soundings show that as suggested by the NWS, there will be a nice cap over the area Friday. However if there's enough forcing, any thunderstorms that bursts through the cap could quickly become 'supercells' Friday afternoon.
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I do not ever recall experiencing a Supercell Thunderstorm.
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Southeast Texas could have a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak this friday if all of the components in the atmosphere come together just right, huh, wxdata?wxdata wrote:12z NAM Bufkit soundings show that as suggested by the NWS, there will be a nice cap over the area Friday. However if there's enough forcing, any thunderstorms that bursts through the cap could quickly become 'supercells' Friday afternoon.
Our ol' friend/nemesis (depending on one's point of view) 'the cap' will once again be holding the aces in this hand of Friday's weather.sleetstorm wrote: Southeast Texas could have a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak this friday if all of the components in the atmosphere come together just right, huh, wxdata?
HPC's QPF suggests that the cap may be partially responsible for the greatest rain amounts staying north and east at weeks end (and the fact that most of the main energy stays further north as well.)
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ok everybody i am having a crawfish boil on Saturday outside and we have a band playing! It starts at 4pm. Are we goin to get drenched!!
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What does that mean, wxdata, that the chances of a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak are not in our favor?wxdata wrote:Our ol' friend/nemesis (depending on one's point of view) 'the cap' will once again be holding the aces in this hand of Friday's weather.sleetstorm wrote: Southeast Texas could have a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak this friday if all of the components in the atmosphere come together just right, huh, wxdata?
Strong southwest winds aloft usually keep the cap strong here. Under current forecasts, the only chance for severe would occur with the upward forcing from the front late Friday/early Saturday. Even then the chance is slight or less ( for here.)What does that mean, wxdata, that the chances of a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak are not in our favor?
That being said, the NAM may not yet go out far enough into the future. The 12z GFS is looking a little more favorable for severe weather early Saturday morning.
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Okay, thank you wxdata. Hey, who knows, perhaps the front will easily overcome the cap enough to where a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak does in fact happen to be the case of transpiring. Just my thoughts.
Now, if we could find a way to get rid of this southwestern cockroach wind aloft and cockroach cap.....................
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