April Weather Discussion.

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
wxdata
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

12z NAM Bufkit soundings show that as suggested by the NWS, there will be a nice cap over the area Friday. However if there's enough forcing, any thunderstorms that bursts through the cap could quickly become 'supercells' Friday afternoon.
sleetstorm
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:33 pm
Contact:

I do not ever recall experiencing a Supercell Thunderstorm.
sleetstorm
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:33 pm
Contact:

wxdata wrote:12z NAM Bufkit soundings show that as suggested by the NWS, there will be a nice cap over the area Friday. However if there's enough forcing, any thunderstorms that bursts through the cap could quickly become 'supercells' Friday afternoon.
Southeast Texas could have a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak this friday if all of the components in the atmosphere come together just right, huh, wxdata?
User avatar
wxdata
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

sleetstorm wrote: Southeast Texas could have a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak this friday if all of the components in the atmosphere come together just right, huh, wxdata?
Our ol' friend/nemesis (depending on one's point of view) 'the cap' will once again be holding the aces in this hand of Friday's weather.
User avatar
wxdata
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

HPC's QPF suggests that the cap may be partially responsible for the greatest rain amounts staying north and east at weeks end (and the fact that most of the main energy stays further north as well.)
medicalgirl32
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:07 pm
Location: Pearland/Scarsdale area
Contact:

ok everybody i am having a crawfish boil on Saturday outside and we have a band playing! It starts at 4pm. Are we goin to get drenched!!
sleetstorm
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:33 pm
Contact:

wxdata wrote:
sleetstorm wrote: Southeast Texas could have a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak this friday if all of the components in the atmosphere come together just right, huh, wxdata?
Our ol' friend/nemesis (depending on one's point of view) 'the cap' will once again be holding the aces in this hand of Friday's weather.
What does that mean, wxdata, that the chances of a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak are not in our favor?
User avatar
wxdata
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

What does that mean, wxdata, that the chances of a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak are not in our favor?
Strong southwest winds aloft usually keep the cap strong here. Under current forecasts, the only chance for severe would occur with the upward forcing from the front late Friday/early Saturday. Even then the chance is slight or less ( for here.)

That being said, the NAM may not yet go out far enough into the future. The 12z GFS is looking a little more favorable for severe weather early Saturday morning.
sleetstorm
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:33 pm
Contact:

Okay, thank you wxdata. 8-) Hey, who knows, perhaps the front will easily overcome the cap enough to where a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak does in fact happen to be the case of transpiring. Just my thoughts.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Now, if we could find a way to get rid of this southwestern cockroach wind aloft and cockroach cap..................... 8-) :twisted:
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 68 guests