July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

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svrwx0503
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It is a rainy morning across southern sections of southeast Texas with a Flood Watch forthcoming for areas along and south of US 59 and west of I-45 until 1pm which includes Houston and Harris county. Large slow moving complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly develop across our southwestern and southern counties with the heaviest rains so far falling across Matagorda and southwestern Brazoria counties. Will be watching the activity across Wharton, Fort Bend and into central and western Harris county along with additional development north of Victoria as it slowly increases and moves towards the metro area. Rain rates have been impressive this morning with several Harris County rain gauges on the west side suggesting upwards of 2 inches per hour.
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srainhoutx
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From Jeff:

Training band of excessive rainfall currently extends from near Victoria to Bay City to offshore of Galveston.



This band is producing rainfall rates of 1-2.5 inches per hour over portions of Matagorda and Jackson counties. This band appears to be in conjunction with weak large scale lift aloft and low level convergence at the surface. Extreme moisture remains over the area helping to foster intense short term rainfall rates. With grounds saturated run-off is increasing and flooding is becoming a threat…a flash flood watch will be issued shortly for areas south of US 59 and west of I-45 where heavy rains fell yesterday.



Radar trends suggest additional storms trying to develop northward of this main band approaching the US 59 corridor. Should more organized storms move into the urban areas some significant street flooding will be possible for the morning rush hour as a HCFCD FWS station record over 1 inch of rainfall in 30 minutes this morning.


Hearing rumbles of thunder now in NW Harris County. Be safe out there this morning. Fingers crossed my plane departs as scheduled for BWI near the noon hour...~sigh~
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svrwx0503
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

TXZ213-226-227-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0005.120711T0941Z-120711T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

* TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
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svrwx0503
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As Jeff mentioned...am concerned that heavier rain may begin to organize closer to the US 59 corridor across portions of the metro area over the next several hours. On another note, there is a ton of lightning associated with the thunderstorms across western Matagorda into southern Jackson county.
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svrwx0503
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/12 0942Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0915Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAINS IN SE TX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HEAVY RAINS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TEXAS SE
COAST WITH BEST RATES AT THIS TIME INVOF JACKSON COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL
MERGERS HAVE INCREASED RATES. IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CLOUD TOPS COOLING
AND EXPANDING ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH ADDITIONAL CELL DEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM HELPING INCREASE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS. PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE WITH BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWING PWATS AT OR JUST ABOVE 2.0"
AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH INSTABILITY ALONG S TEXAS COAST
(5000 J/KG CAPES) AND (-7C LIS). MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATE IN MERGING
CONVECTION SUGGEST RATES OF 1.5"/30MIN. RATES OF 2-3"/HR IS POSSIBLE
IN DEEPEST CORES/BEST CONVECTION AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ALSO
ANTICIPATE SOME OF DEEPER CONVECTION TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SW LA.

.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0945-1245Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE IN SE TX WITH BEST RATES
INVOF JACKSON/VICTORIA COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
ARE CURRENTLY MERGING.
EXPECT RATES IN THE 1-3"/HR RANGE IN DEEPEST
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS ALSO MOVING INTO SW LA BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS OUTLOOK SHOULD BE AROUND JACKSON COUNTY WHERE 3 HR FFG IS UNDER 3.0".
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Katdaddy
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A busy morning ahead:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

TXZ213-226-227-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0005.120711T0941Z-120711T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

* TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
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Katdaddy
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-239-321-481-111230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0035.120711T1024Z-120711T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
524 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 517 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAKE JACKSON...BAY CITY...FREEPORT...CLUTE...EDNA...PALACIOS...
SWEENY...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...JONES CREEK...
GANADO...VAN VLECK...OYSTER CREEK...MARKHAM...SURFSIDE BEACH...LA
WARD AND QUINTANA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY.
MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN
AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
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srainhoutx
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From Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning in effect for Jackson, Matagorda, and SW Brazoria counties until.



At 530am radar shows a band of intense rainfall from Victoria to Bay City nearly stationary. Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour is common under this band with storm totals approaching 4-5 inches over Matagorda County and Jackson County.



Flooding is likely under this band of slow moving intense rainfall.



Band should continue for at least the next 1-2 hours as favorable low level inflow off the Gulf collides with weaker inland winds creating a favored low level convergence zone. An additional 2-4 inches of rainfall on top of what has already fallen is possible in the warning area. Significant run-off and flooding will be generated.



Other storms are developing across the western parts of the area and expect these will congeal into bands over the next few hours. Watching Harris County closely as 1 hour rate of 2.72 was recorded at the HCFCD office.
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jasons2k
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Ha! The sprinklers did the trick! I got .70" overnight from the smallest of red specs on the radar at about 4:30AM. It all came in about 20 minutes. I don't believe I've ever seen it rain so hard with no thunder. So, now I can stop my complaining and be glad this wasn't another bust for me :-)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
EXPANDED FF WATCH FURTHER INLAND AND EXTENDED THRU THE DAY.
TRAINING BANDS LOOK TO BE DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND AND IF THE
NAM12 IS ONTO THINGS (WHICH IT APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL...WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS.
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srainhoutx
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Updates from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include all SE TX counties now until 700pm this evening.



Widespread clusters of very heavy rainfall (1-2.5 inches per hour) developing over a large part of SE TX. With grounds saturated, significant run-off is being generated. Storms will continue to develop and move very slowly across the area producing excessive rainfall and flooding.



Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts are likely with isolated totals of 4-6 inches. Already this morning parts of Matagorda County have received upwards of 5-6 inches of rainfall. Radar is starting o show development filling in over Wharton, Fort Bend, Austin, Waller, and western Harris Counties.


Overnight rainfall of 3-5 inches on top of heavy rainfall yesterday has led to a significant rise on the Tres Palacios River at Midfield in Matagorda County.



Overnight the river has risen over 10 feet and is nearing flood stage. Excessive rainfall continues to fall over the drainage basin and the river is expected to rise above flood stage this morning.



Current Stage: 22.59 ft

Flood Stage: 24.0 ft

Forecast: river is in a rapid rise and will reach flood stage this morning and continue to rise to near or above 25.0 ft today. At levels above 24 feet, flooding begins at flow spills into the right upstream floodplain.





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srainhoutx
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Jeff reports .92 inches of rain in the past 15 minutes in NW Harris County @ gage 1190 (Upper Cypress Creek at Mathis Rd).
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HGX issues Flood Advisory for Harris & Montgomery Counties
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srainhoutx
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First visible shot of the morning reveals just where the boundary and best dynamics are situated across SE TX...
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Almost appears to be a couple "meso-lows" out and about enhancing convection. One offshore of Galveston and the other in western Montgomery County.
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srainhoutx
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HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Austin, Colorado, Grimes, Harris, Montgomery, Waller, Washington [TX] till 11:00 AM CDT
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Call me a glutton, but I wish the low in W. Montgomery would slide east a little. It's like I-45 has been a wall this morning. It looks like things may try to get going on this side of the tracks - we'll see...
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HCFCD gage 1175: K100 Cypress Creek @ US 290 is showing 2.4 inches of rain in the past 3 hours
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From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/12 1309Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1245Z JBN
LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN WFOS...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...ONGOING MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT IN SE TX...DEVELOPING MOD/HVY RAIN
THREAT LA INTO SRN MS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES IR/VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED OVER SERN TX ATTM. CLOUD
TOPS STILL SHOWING A NICE COOLING/EXPANDING TREND IN IR WHERE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS ATTM WITH VIS IMAGAERY SHOWING A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS
WELL. SEVERAL FEATURES INCLUDING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC LOW/AND
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ACTING AS FOCAL POINTS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP/MOVE ALONG THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHERE BEST PRECIP MAY SET UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER,
THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION AND MOD/HVY RAIN
REMAINS OVER SERN TX AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF GOOD SFC
CONVERGENCE/DEEP MOISTURE. SATELLITE HYDRO-ESTIMATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTING
THAT 3-4" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF MATAGORDA/JACKSON/WALLER
COUNTIES WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD 1-3" ACROSS MUCH OF SERN TX/SWRN LA THE
PAST 3 HRS. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS,
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 4" AMTS OVER PORTIONS
OF SE TX/SW LA.

.
HEADING FARTHER NE INTO CNTRL LA/SRN MS, VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF
CONVECTION TRAILING A REMNANT MCV OVER NRN MS THAT CONNECTS WITH ANOTHER
MCV OVER SWRN LA. THIS BAND IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT IN
IR IMAGERY AND MAY INTENSIFY SOME THE NEXT FEW HRS. SINCE THE LINE IT
ORIENTED WSW TO ENE AND IS MOVING ENE, THINK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME TRAINING IN THESE AREAS. RAIN RATES NOT THAT HVY RIGHT NOW,
BUT IF INTENSIFYING TRENDS CONTINUE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING
RAIN RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOD/HVY RAIN FROM
CNTRL LA TO SRN MS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT
AREA AND AN ESTIMATE GRAPHIC SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE
ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1315Z-1615Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN OUTLOOK FOR SERN TX AS ONGOING DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH AND SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. ONLY THING TO GO WRONG WOULD BE FOR CONVECTION TO
SHIFT OFF THE COAST, BUT DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING AT THIS POINT. SO
MOD/HVY RAIN SHOULD STAY FOCUSED OVER SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS. A LITTLE BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO CNTRL LA/SRN MS. BAND OF CUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD AND THERE ARE SEVERAL MCVS TO HELP ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION, BUT MAY NEED A FEW MORE HRS OF SUNLIGHT/HEATING TO
DESTABILIZE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SOME REALLY DEEP CONVECTION GOING AND
CREATE A GREATER FLOOD THREAT.
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jasons2k
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With that swirl in W. Montgomery just spinning, Spring Creek along the county line may see the worst flooding since I moved here. Looks like street flooding is imminent in The Woodlands and Magnolia areas.
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