June: Record June High Temps Across Texas!

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srainhoutx
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A couple of feature we'll need to monitor as the weekend approaches. The Global GFS and Euro both are suggesting a frontal boundary dropping S into Texas and stalling. Also EPAC Tropical Depression 2 remnants may well be crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and pressures lower in the Bay of Campeche as abundant tropical moisture pools from both the Eastern Pacific and the Western Caribbean. Currently the reliable models suggest no real development in the Western Gulf, but the GFDL does attempt to draw a weak system N. The GFDL usually does not handle things well and is considered an outlier. That said increased moisture across the Western Gulf may fester next week and increase rainfall across NE Mexico as well as S and S Central Texas and possibly into SE Texas as that frontal boundary hangs around. We will see.
05282013 18Z GFS f114.gif
05282013 12Z Euro f120.gif
05282013 12Z GFDL slp20.png
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srainhoutx wrote:A couple of feature we'll need to monitor as the weekend approaches. The Global GFS and Euro both are suggesting a frontal boundary dropping S into Texas and stalling. Also EPAC Tropical Depression 2 remnants may well be crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and pressures lower in the Bay of Campeche as abundant tropical moisture pools from both the Eastern Pacific and the Western Caribbean. Currently the reliable models suggest no real development in the Western Gulf, but the GFDL does attempt to draw a weak system N. The GFDL usually does not handle things well and is considered an outlier. That said increased moisture across the Western Gulf may fester next week and increase rainfall across NE Mexico as well as S and S Central Texas and possibly into SE Texas as that frontal boundary hangs around. We will see.
05282013 18Z GFS f114.gif
05282013 12Z Euro f120.gif
05282013 12Z GFDL slp20.png
This could be interesting. This could be like Tropical Storm Allison of 1989. It formed form East Pacific Hurricane Cosme. It dumped heavy rain as much as 20 inches in Houston area and 30 inches in Central Louisiana. Allison was replaced by Andrea following 2001 Allison. Deja vu? :shock: :o
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upper level trough over the plains continues to support daily outbreaks of severe weather and this pattern will continue both today and Saturday.

Locally a moist and unstable air mass continues to advect inland off the Gulf of Mexico with periodic showers streaming northward in the low level flow. Gusty south winds feeding low pressure systems to our north have mitigated any hopes of a seabreeze boundary and more organized convection. Once temperature reach the upper 80’s expect scattered showers to develop and move rapidly northward across the region. Small size of these showers in this tropical air mass and fast forward motions suggest isolated rainfall amounts of only about 1/10th of an inch.

Changes take place over the weekend as a slow moving cool front sags southward into the region from N TX. Active convection on Saturday to our north will likely spill southward into our region late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Not sure in what form or how organized this convection will be, but our northern counties stand a chance of seeing thunderstorms Saturday night. Fairly wet period looks in store on Sunday with the slow moving frontal boundary crossing the area combined with a fairly moist tropical air mass. Models are not overly excited about rainfall amounts, but with storm motions slowing and the boundary laying down west-east across the region could see some heavy rainfall in a few bands.

Front should actually push into the northern Gulf Monday allowing a brief period of offshore flow and drier air to work into the region. All eyes will then focus on the Gulf of Mexico next week as nearly all guidance spins up a tropical system toward the middle to end of next week. Current trough from Florida to the remains of Barbara in the Bay of Campeche will remain in place into next week. A broad surface low is forecasted to develop out of this trough and move generally NNE to NE late next week and this is supported by several of the global forecast models. The system appears large and very wet on its eastern flanks with wind shear likely impacting from the west…a typical early season Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone. At this time is would appear that impacts would be well east of our region and focused across the central/eastern Gulf coast region toward next weekend. Should this solution verify, increased NE winds on the western flank of the system would likely help pull dry air SW into SE TX toward the end of next week and help push high temperatures into the middle 90’s.


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from NESDIS Precip products: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/

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keep an eye out for TX as the day wears on, I hope we can get some rain

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

TXC225-373-455-021100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0034.130602T0853Z-130602T1100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-POLK TX-
353 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 AM CDT

* AT 348 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
TRINITY...CORRIGAN AND GROVETON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

TXZ163-176>178-195>199-211>213-021045-
BURLESON TX-BRAZOS TX-WALKER TX-AUSTIN TX-HARRIS TX-WALLER TX-
MADISON TX-WASHINGTON TX-SAN JACINTO TX-MONTGOMERY TX-GRIMES TX-
HOUSTON TX-
451 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS...WALKER...NORTHERN AUSTIN...NORTHWESTERN
HARRIS...CENTRAL WALLER...EASTERN MADISON...WASHINGTON...WESTERN SAN
JACINTO...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...GRIMES AND SOUTHERN HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 447 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST
OF MADISONVILLE TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF NAVASOTA TO 7 MILES WEST OF
SOMERVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...
BELLVILLE...PINEHURST...WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SOMERVILLE...
WALLER...MAGNOLIA...NEW WAVERLY...PINE ISLAND...MONTGOMERY...
STAGECOACH...BURTON...MIDWAY AND TODD MISSION.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 548 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR PANORAMA VILLAGE...OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CONROE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...PINEHURST...WILLIS...
OAK RIDGE NORTH...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...PORTER HEIGHTS...
PATTON VILLAGE...WOODBRANCH...CUT AND SHOOT...MAGNOLIA...ROMAN
FOREST...SPLENDORA...CHATEAU WOODS...MONTGOMERY AND WOODLOCH.
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anticipation :D

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
611 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-POLK TX-
611 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 607 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
THREE HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
TRINITY...CORRIGAN AND GROVETON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

TXZ187-203>205-219-220-021230-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BEXAR-FRIO-MEDINA-UVALDE-
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...
NORTHEASTERN FRIO...SOUTHERN BANDERA...BEXAR...EASTERN UVALDE AND
MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

AT 625 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
TARPLEY TO MEDINA LAKE TO LACOSTE TO ELMENDORF...AND MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
CASTROVILLE...
HONDO...
DEVINE...
POTEET...
RIO MEDINA...
LACOSTE...
SOMERSET...
UTOPIA...
BADER...
PEARSON...
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CDT

* AT 626 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODBRANCH...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF KINGWOOD...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGWOOD...SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...HUMBLE...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...BARRETT...OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHENANDOAH...
CROSBY...SHELDON...PORTER HEIGHTS...PATTON VILLAGE...WOODBRANCH...
CUT AND SHOOT...ROMAN FOREST...SPLENDORA...KENEFICK AND CHATEAU
WOODS.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 648 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ONALASKA...GROVETON...POINT BLANK...OAKHURST AND SEVEN OAKS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
659 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

SAN JACINTO TX-
659 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2996 9486 2977 9517 2999 9542 3040 9498
3032 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1158Z 302DEG 33KT 3003 9495

$$

LIBERTY TX-MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-
659 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL LIBERTY...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS
COUNTIES...

AT 654 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR DAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGWOOD...CLOVERLEAF...HUMBLE...DAYTON...BARRETT...CROSBY...
SHELDON...PATTON VILLAGE...WOODBRANCH...ROMAN FOREST...KENEFICK...
PLUM GROVE AND DAYTON LAKES.
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I've had about an inch and a half of rain so far here in NW Harris County. Nice gentle rain now falling that is very welcomed.
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0.63" Sunday in Westbury. Total of 21.5" for the year.
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The models are in general agreement that a trough and possible frontal boundary will sag S across Texas on Friday. There are indications that the frontal boundary will stall and retreat N during the weekend into early next week. It does appear that increasing showers and isolated storms are possible Friday and possibly extending into the weekend as PW’s increase to near the 2 inch mark and embedded disturbances ride SE from any masoscale convective systems that originate to our NW across the Panhandle and Oklahoma throughout the week.
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Need forecasting help - we are getting a new roof on our house and now scheduling to have the work done? What does Thursday and Friday look like? Or Monday and Tuesday of next week. Need either these two days of no rain.

thanks.
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ticka1 wrote:Need forecasting help - we are getting a new roof on our house and now scheduling to have the work done? What does Thursday and Friday look like? Or Monday and Tuesday of next week. Need either these two days of no rain.

thanks.
Late week looks iffy as of this morning. Increasing rain chances Thursday and showers and isolated storms increase further for Friday as a 'cool' front sags S into Texas.
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Weak cool front/outflow boundary which crossed the area on Sunday is washing out over the Gulf of Mexico and starting to allow moisture to return to the region. Still have ridging in the upper levels from MX into TX with a well-organized thunderstorm complex moving ESE across southern OK and the Red River. Ridge over TX will slowly flatten and weaken as the next trough in the western US moves into the plains over the next 48 hours. Upper level flow will become increasingly NW over the region allowing upstream short waves and thunderstorm complexes to progress deeper into the state from the NW. Another weak frontal boundary will sag toward the region Thursday night and Friday and expect that this feature will produce our next chance of rainfall. Models are not in overly good agreement on the placement of this boundary over the weekend and this is causing some disagreement on the potential for rainfall after Friday. Think that composite outflow from storms may in fact push a boundary off the coast and help stabilize the area early Friday before possibly backing northward on Saturday. Tough call on this part of the forecast as meso scale influences take over. NW flow aloft this time of year however can yield some significant MCS activity so will need to keep an eye to the NW for the next several days for any disturbances in the upper level flow.

91L:
Broad area of weak low pressure has developed north of the Yucatan peninsula within a large overall trough axis extending from off the SE US coast to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Visible images show a swirl moving NW toward the central Gulf of Mexico with deep convection well removed from this feature due to unfavorable upper level winds and dry air across much of the western and central Gulf. Forecast models continue to show development in this region over the next few days as either a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone. Things are not looking so great for this system at the moment with the shear and dry air in place. Upper level steering will carry any development toward the NNE or toward the FL panhandle and the western coast of FL. Excessive rains will be the main threat with this system if it becomes and named storm or not.
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As long as that idiot high pressure dome doesn't come back then we are good. Back to normal 93 - 72 and 20% chance of rain every day in the summer....

I will smash a cockroach high with my shoe!!
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