OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

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unome
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this has to be the wettest week we've had in our little corner of Harris County in years

7-day totals

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Last edited by unome on Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
ticka1
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received one inch of rain....didnt even know it rained and it is 59 degrees!
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srainhoutx
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Just emptied 1.83 inches of rain out of the old rain bucket up here in NW Harris County. I see that Cypress and even some locations closer to FM 529 did even better. Breezy and cool with clearing skies. Enjoy the weekend and get ready for some mid 40's tomorrow before more over running showers and storms develop ahead of the next front Monday night. We may actually get to dry out later next week and have some very Chamber of Commerce type weather that October can bring to our Region.
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srainhoutx
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A chilly 44 F up here in NW Harris County this morning is the coldest we have seen since last Spring. Enjoy another gorgeous day before clouds roll in this evening and showers return tomorrow as yet another cold front makes its way across Texas. The heavier rain looks to be confined to our Coastal Counties and offshore tomorrow with lighter amounts inland. The rest of the upcoming week looks cool and clear before another front pushes in next Saturday.

Image

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NE TX. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY SEWD TO THE LOWER TX
COAST...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F AND A POCKET OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT
AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. IN SPITE OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER NRN
MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BE OFF THE TX COAST SUGGESTING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS REMAINS LOW ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTH TX.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL FL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN SRN AND CNTRL FL.

..BROYLES.. 10/20/2013
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srainhoutx
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Taking a look at the medium to longer range forecast, the guidance continues to struggle with a very active Western Pacific where a parade of Typhoons have developed and turned N then NE/ENE and transitioned to large extra tropical cyclones or big lower pressure complexes. These systems have been marching toward the Aleutians and the Bering Sea and buckling the polar jet with each storm system. Super Typhoon Francisco and now Typhoon Lekima are entering the mix. The global models are beginning to suggest that 'Blue Norther' we mentioned last week and the European suite of guidance has joined the GFS and Canadian. The fly in the ointment is EPAC Hurricane Raymond and a persistent cut off upper low that has been meandering N and E of Hawaii. All in all the trends are beginning to signal a fairly significant Polar Cold Front may well arrive a day or two before Halloween bringing the coldest air of the season into the Lone Star State. We will see.
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Rip76
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And where am I headed?

Portland, Texas
Paul Robison

2 Questions:

1. What are the prospects for medium to strong thunderstorms tonight when the cold front comes through at 10:00 pm?

2. What will the main threats from the Halloween polar cold front be? NWS describes halloween forcast as "Scarier."

3. WARNING! 18z GFS develops seasons next TC in the southwest gulf, wants to point it north toward Texas! STORM SEASON NOT OVER YET!
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Kludge
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Paul Robison wrote:2 Questions:

1. What are the prospects for medium to strong thunderstorms tonight when the cold front comes through at 10:00 pm?

2. What will the main threats from the Halloween polar cold front be? NWS describes halloween forcast as "Scarier."

3. WARNING! 18z GFS develops seasons next TC in the southwest gulf, wants to point it north toward Texas! STORM SEASON NOT OVER YET!
p A ul R ob ISON -a

over before it started.
Paul Robison

Kludge wrote:
Paul Robison wrote:2 Questions:

1. What are the prospects for medium to strong thunderstorms tonight when the cold front comes through at 10:00 pm?

2. What will the main threats from the Halloween polar cold front be? NWS describes halloween forcast as "Scarier."

3. WARNING! 18z GFS develops seasons next TC in the southwest gulf, wants to point it north toward Texas! STORM SEASON NOT OVER YET!
p A ul R ob ISON -a

over before it started.
Read this HGX disco before you joke:

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE WAY THEY HANDLE A WEEKEND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE...THE ECMWF BEING THE AGGRESSOR AND
DIGGING THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE INTO NE`ERN TEXAS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...GENERATING AREAWIDE QPF. THE DRY GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
WAVE AND QUICKLY DISPLACES IT INTO THE SE U.S. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE IN NWP OPINION AND HAVE
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS MORE INTERIOR COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. 12Z ENSEMBLE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FROPA AT MID-WEEK...WITH THE FASTER
GFS (SURPRISE!) PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY/EURO
ON THURSDAY. BOTH DO PROG A NICE SHOT OF RAIN AHEAD OF A DEEP
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/DESERT SW TROUGH/CLOSED-OFF LOW. SO...AFTER A
WEEK OF BENIGN WEATHER (WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING OF THAT
POSSIBLE QUICK-PASSING WEEKEND S/W)...HALLOWEEN WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO BE MUCH SCARIER. 31


This is serious business, Houston! Watch this video for an idea of what we might be in for:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ow3IHJL68qs

My apologies if I'm doing y'all a disservice.
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Kludge
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What is it about this forum that draws the caps lock crowd?
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Rip76
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I can't stop laughing.
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Rip76
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Anyway, that was some hairy weather in Portland and Ingleside today.
Paul Robison

Could Texas (ne'e Houston) be in for something like this on Saturday?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec37TJGjXd4
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Katdaddy
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Clearing skies this morning with frontal system now pushing off the coast. Very nice weather through Friday.
Paul Robison

Keep vigilant!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
302 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THIS AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY
NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE HILL
COUNTRY MAY SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOW DEWPOINTS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
DRY AIRMASS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION...SO ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO WARM DUE TO THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS
STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A WEAK S/W ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE RETURN FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS/NOGAPS AND
ECMWF. THE GFS/NOGAPS HAS THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER PUSHING THE FROPA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ATTM WE WILL USE THE GFS TIMING. ALL MODELS DO DEPICT THIS FRONT
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH AMPLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY. A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AS IT MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
STATES.


THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INTERESTING AS AN APPROACHING WESTERN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING EAST IN NEAR-ZONAL FLOW DIGS
DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
WITHIN A MORE-MOISTENED ENVIRONMENT...AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS LATE
FRIDAY...TO INCREASE POPS TO MODERATE CHANCE. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THERE HAS BEEN
(RECENTLY) DECENT AGREEMENT OF THIS S/W`S TIMING OF PASSAGE.
EARLY WORK WEEK WEATHER WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BENIGN AS THE S/W IS
ABSORBED BY A BROAD EASTERN U.S TROUGH WHILE AN AGGRESSIVE UPPER
ROCKY MOUNTAIN 5H TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THE ENSEMBLE AGREES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHWEST
AND SLOW BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A
STRONG AND SHARP TROUGH AT MID-WEEK. AS OF NOW...IF NWP RUNS
REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS SYSTEM WILL PACK
QUITE THE PUNCH NEEDED TO GENERATE STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE OCTOBER`S WEATHER CONCLUDING WITH QUITE THE
THE BANG. 31


Don't any of y'all remember what happened on Feb. 2, 2011? Christmas day 2012? Same kind of deal, folks! Get ready for this like you would a tropical storm or hurricane! This cold front is armed and dangerous!
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Wa...???
Paul Robison

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Just me, but I might wait a couple of days before going into full panic. At least wait until something shows up nearby on SPC SWODY4-8

If one trusts the 12Z GFS 180 hours out, 500 mb winds are much stronger North of here, and a positively tilted trough sometimes reduces the fun-derstorm potential.
Well, Ed, the current (18Z) GFS run does keep the worst of the rain and storms to the north of us AS USUAL! HAHAHA!

Image

BUT:
I'll state my chief concern in one word: SUPERCELLS. Anyone think those likely with this Halloween cold front?
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Katdaddy
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A cool morning as temps are in the 50s and a few upper 40s across SE TX. The beautiful weather continues today through Friday.
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srainhoutx
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Morning update from Jeff:

Rather amplified upper air pattern will continue with troughing across the eastern US and ridging over the western US which will lead to dry and pleasant weather in the middle of the nation.

Cold front that crossed the area Tuesday morning is well offshore with surface high pressure and dry air in place resulting in a cool morning across the area with lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Surface high will remain in place through Friday keeping dewpoints low and rain chances at zero. A fast moving upper level disturbance will swing through the trough over the central plains this weekend and as this happens winds will swing around to the SE and the transport of Gulf moisture will begin across the area. Looks fairly dry still for Saturday, but lift from the short wave and increasing moisture should produce increasing clouds by afternoon and a slight chance of rainfall by late evening into Sunday morning. Models continue to differ with the intensity of the upper air disturbance so rain chances could go up some if a stronger disturbance verifies.

Short wave passes to the east, but no cold front or significant air mass change is expect and moisture will continue to increase. Pattern transitions into a big trough over the western US by early next week with a fairly potent looking storm system dropping into the SW US by this period. System looks to move into the plains by the middle of the week and with good moisture return over TX showers and thunderstorms appear in the offing in/around Halloween. Still a good ways out but this could be a pretty potent storm system.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z suite of guidance is slowly coming together in suggesting a significant Fall Season storm may well develop mid next week as a rather deep and strong cold core upper low cross the Desert SW and heads ENE across New Mexico and the Southern Plains. There still remain some timing differences that one would expect a week out in model world, but it does appear that potions of the Southern Rockies may see a significant winter like storm and potions of Texas and Oklahoma may see a rather potent severe weather episode that usually accompanies a strong storm complex during the Fall transition in weather patterns. We will see.
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