NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Paul Robison

tireman4 wrote:This could be an interesting set of days coming. Hummmmm
HGX might disagree with you, tireman. Look:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
529 PM CST MON NOV 18 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. SHORTWAVE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY WILL
BRING SOME MID & HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND DEPART
OFF TO THE EAST MID/LATE TUE MORNING. WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW
RETURNS SHOW UP ON RADAR 5-14Z BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VIRGA. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST MON NOV 18 2013/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS WHARTON AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT HAVE TRENDED MIN TEMPS UP BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
WARMING ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NOW ROUGHLY 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. THIS HOLDS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR
REGION UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROVIDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER
UNPLEASANT WITH RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. WE WILL
SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY BEFORE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGS ONE MORE ROUND
OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. 38


Do you consider "light to moderate rain" interesting? Hm?
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tireman4
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I was speaking statewide....
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I consider any rain interesting these days and glad to know we will be getting some more much needed rain. Concerned about nephews's drive home for Thanksgiving from college in North Texas if things get interesting further north..
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Morning update from Jeff:

Weak cool front pushed across the area yesterday allowing developing NE winds and cooler temperatures…at least down from the record highs on Sunday.

Cool air mass will be in place today and then begin to modify on Wednesday as winds turn back around to the southeast. Will see a gradual warming trend starting on Wednesday ahead of a powerful polar front that will arrive into the region on Friday. Increasing Gulf moisture will produce increasing rain chances starting on Wednesday and more likely on Thursday. This will mainly be showers moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico on the warm air advection regime with embedded weak disturbances in the flow aloft helping to enhance lift at times.

Large 1050mb high pressure cell is progged by all of the forecast models to drop southward out of Canada and into the northern plains late this week. This will send a surge of very cold air southward down the front range of the Rockies and deep into TX by Friday. The mid and upper level flow is out of the SW during this period, but the cold dense nature of this air mass should dam it against the eastern slopes of the Rockies and send a cold shallow front across the TX by Friday. Expect a strong southward push of the cold air and it is very possible that the front goes through Del Rio and Victoria before Houston. Temperatures will tumble with the frontal passage with highs achieved prior to the front and temperatures falling quickly into the 40’s and 50’s behind the boundary with strong north winds. Frontal timing is still somewhat in question with Friday afternoon into the evening hours looking most likely…this will obviously have a big impact on high temperatures on Friday as the later timing would allow highs to reach well into the 70’s and possibly 80’s before the bottom falls out. Not overly excited about rain chances with the front as the main dynamics will be north of the region. Model guidance continues to be fairly bullish on at least light rainfall and in fact much of the rain may fall behind the boundary in the cold air as a period of overrunning of the shallow air mass looks likely into Saturday. Not sure the area will ever clear out much behind this front…although Sunday would be the best chance of some sun and that looks short lived.

Cold polar high builds into the central plains over the weekend with cold air mass firmly in place over TX. Upper level storm system develops in the southern branch of the jet stream over the SW US by the weekend and begins to slowly push eastward. Models yesterday were bringing this system into the state late in the weekend and into early next week, but latest runs have slowed down the eastward progress. I am tempted to followed the slower progression as this tends to be common with such SW US upper level storm systems. Should the faster solution look more likely a very cold rain would develop over much of the area on Sunday with the potential for some wintry mix of precipitation over W and NW TX as the surface air mass would not have time to modify much. For now will go with the warmer and slower solution with rain returning by late Monday. Could see a coastal trough develop along the lower or middle coast at this point keeping NE winds and cold air locked in place at the surface or a rapidly northward moving warm front sweeping the cold air out. Both appear to be viable solutions for early next week.

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A quick update as to where all this cold air is coming from and why there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this cutoff low forecasted to be in Southern California on Thursday/Friday. If we look NW into Eastern Alaska and the NW Territories of Canada, we can see that our source region is very cold with temps in the -20 to -30 range. A short wave disturbance is depicted as a milky white feature dropping SE from that region this morning on water vapor imagery and being very dense with its origin over the Artic and Northern Siberia. Behind that short wave or upper air disturbance is a strong Arctic front racing S and should enter the Lower 48 from Canada tomorrow.
11192013 14Z_metars_pak.gif

Image

Canada and Alaska has sufficient snow cover to keep this air mass from modifying, so a strong Arctic High Pressure cell will have little problems dropping S into the Northern and Central Plains. There is not much in the way of snow on the ground across the Central Plains, but due to the SW flow aloft originating from a noisy Pacific Southern Stream as the upper low wraps up into a closed cold core low, mid and upper moisture will stream over the shallow very cold air mass at the surface.

As the Arctic High slides S into the Southern Plains, upslope winds will begin in earnest along the Southern Rockies and the Front Range allowing for light snow, freezing rain and sleet to develop. Across the higher elevations of Southern Colorado into New Mexico, heavy snow should develop and continue into the weekend as possibly early next week. What we do not know at this time is just how quickly the 500mb cold core low will begin to move east as it becomes separated from the northern branch of the Polar jet. As Jeff alluded to, all options are on the table as of today regarding whether we see nothing more than a chilly rain or a significant ice storm across the Northern half of Texas. Also the fly in the ointment continues to be whether a Coastal low forms and just when that will happen, if it does at all. We will have more later and begin to look into the busy Thanksgiving Holiday travel period in a day or two, but early indications are it could be rather cold and stormy across the US during the week of Thanksgiving. Stay Tuned.
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1022 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2013

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 22 2013 - 12Z TUE NOV 26 2013


THE SPLIT FLOW AT THE MEDIUM RANGE HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC FOR THE
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS' WORTH OF DATA
RUNS. THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES WITHIN
BOTH STREAMS HAVE BEEN DISPARATELY HANDLED--BOTH INTER- AND
INTRAMODEL. IN SOME CASES, THE SOLUTIONS HAVE INDICATED A
SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THE STREAMS, WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SPRAWLING, DEEP CYCLONES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. EXAMPLES OF SUCH PHASING INCLUDED BOTH
THE 00Z/19 AND 06Z/19 GFS, AND THE 00Z/18 AND 12Z/18 ECMWF--WITH
THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AFFECTED.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS--PARTICULARLY THE ECENS MEAN--HAVE NOT HAD AS
STRONG OF A PHASING SIGNATURE. THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN FROM THE
00Z/19 DATA CYCLE SEEMS TO BEST REFLECT THE MULTI-DAY AVERAGES AND
TRENDING THAT KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD, THE CLOSED LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA DAY 3 SHOULD FINALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO, WHERE IT WILL HAVE SOME ROOM
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD.

THE MAJOR SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE THE COLD DELIVERED INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES DAYS 3 AND 4, AND THE MULTI-DAY
PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WITH COLD AIR BANKED WELL
DOWN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN, EXPECT SNOWS TO PILE
UP--PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY AFFORD THE
VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE FOR ICE THERE LATER IN THE FORECAST.


CISCO
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The 12Z Euro trended bit slower with the E movement of the 5H cutoff low near San Diego. Typically these SW 5H lows give the guidance fits until about 24-36 hours out and often produce very heavy snow totals across the higher elevations N of I-40. It is also noteworthy that the Euro does suggest a Coastal Low developing SE of Corpus Christi on Sunday into Monday producing over running precip N of the frontal boundary with N to NE winds across inland areas of Central and S Texas as the low opens up and shears out with a secondary trough axis over Texas.
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11192013 12Z Euro f144.gif
11192013 12Z Euro f168.gif
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What is this saying for middle Tennessee next week?
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Watching this storm system very closely here in Oklahoma! I'm flying home for the holidays next week, plane leaves shortly after 7pm at Will Rodgers Airport on Monday. Crossing my fingers plane isn't delayed or cancelled. I wonder if this is only a sign to come as we head into the rest of winter...

Meantime, I haven't been on this forum in a long time. Been absent it seems since around May. Had an extremely busy summer and adjusting up here at OU this past semester. Meteorology sure is one tough major - but exciting at that. Hope everyone has been doing well and have a wonderful holiday next week! :D
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Belmer wrote:Watching this storm system very closely here in Oklahoma! I'm flying home for the holidays next week, plane leaves shortly after 7pm at Will Rodgers Airport on Monday. Crossing my fingers plane isn't delayed or cancelled. I wonder if this is only a sign to come as we head into the rest of winter...

Meantime, I haven't been on this forum in a long time. Been absent it seems since around May. Had an extremely busy summer and adjusting up here at OU this past semester. Meteorology sure is one tough major - but exciting at that. Hope everyone has been doing well and have a wonderful holiday next week! :D

Same here! Watching how these models are changing here for Central OK...
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snowman65 wrote:What is this saying for middle Tennessee next week?
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/ ... ter/page-5
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Morning Update from Jeff:

Rapidly changing conditions over the next several days as cold polar air floods into the US.

Today-early Friday:

Warm air advection will increase today as winds swing around to the ESE and SE allowing Gulf moisture to begin its return to the region. Short term models suggest a few showers may develop in this pattern across the coastal bend latter today and then spread northward into SE TX tonight into much of Thursday. Expect these showers to be mainly light and fast moving with rainfall amounts likely less than .25 of an inch. Surface dewpoints rise into the 60’s tonight and 70’s on Thursday and this over the cooler near shore waters may result in a bout of dense sea fog as early as Thursday morning and especially Friday morning.

Friday midday-Saturday:

Large 1050mb polar high originating out of a very cold NW Canada (current surface temperatures -20 to -30F) will plunge down the plains late this week sending a very cold and shallow arctic air mass into TX. Will go with the Canadian model as it is the fastest model as these shallow dense air masses tend to make very good progress even in the face of unfavorable upper level flow. Expect the front to blow through the Rio Grande plains before reaching Houston as the dense cold air dams against the slopes of the southern Rockies. High temperatures Friday will reach the 70’s before the front and rapidly fall into the 50’s with the front and into the 40’s a few hours post frontal passage. NW winds will howl in the 20-30mph range making wind chills in the 30’s by Friday evening. Expect a line of showers with the front and then rapid lifting of warm and moist air over the top of the shallow cold dome into Saturday. Even looks to be some mid-level instability in place Friday night for some elevated thunderstorms. Luckily surface temperatures and column profiles will keep everything liquid as it is only going to be cold near the surface…so all rain for Friday night into Saturday. Overrunning upglide pattern continues into Saturday as a large winter storm develops over the SW US. SW flow aloft will bring moisture back into the cold air at the surface over TX. Surface freezing line should remain well NW of our area (roughly from NW of Fort Worth to NW of Del Rio) so all liquid over the eastern part of the state. Highs on Saturday will hold in the low to mid 40’s under strong cold air advection and widespread rain and clouds. Highs on Sunday may reach into the low 50’s if there is any breaks in the clouds, but many areas may hold again in the 40’s as the cold air dome deepens.

Winds will also be a problem from Friday onward over the area and especially the Gulf. Cold air striking the still warm Gulf waters will help in downward momentum transfer and likely lead to near sustained Gale conditions Friday night into Saturday. Expect easily 35-40kts over the coastal waters and 25-30mph across inland locations. Winds may decrease some on Sunday before veering to the NE and E late Sunday as surface low pressure develops on the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf increasing winds again Monday and Tuesday.

Sunday-Tuesday:

Models have come into much better agreement on a winter storm solution for TX early next week. Large and cold upper level storm over the SW US will progress quickly into the state as early as late Sunday. This allows little time for the dense cold air mass to modify and has the potential to bring winter precipitation to much of W and NC TX Sunday night-Monday night. Models have also trended toward a coastal surface low formation solution off the middle TX coast by late Sunday which keeps NE winds in place across SE TX and the cold surface wedge locked in tight. Position of the track of the upper level storm supports a suppressed surface low track across our Gulf waters or offshore keeping the area within the cold sector. Expect widespread rain to develop again by late Sunday into Monday as the coastal trough forces lift and slings copious moisture back across the area. Temperatures will fall into the 30’s Sunday night and there is an outside chance that some of the rain could mix with sleet over our far northern counties Sunday night into Monday as the cold dome would be deeper at this point….but this is a low chance at the moment. Better chances for frozen precipitation will be NW of our area. Temperatures will then likely be steady in the 40’s all day Monday with widespread rainfall. Surface low deepening across the NW Gulf on Monday supports some strong E winds which could result in tidal run-up also. Storm system should progress east of the area by late Tuesday ending rainfall and clearing skies prior to Thanksgiving.

Rainfall amounts from Thursday-Tuesday will likely average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible. Best chances for heavy rainfall will be Friday night with any elevated convection and again Monday night/Tuesday with the coastal storm.
  

 

 

 

 
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HGX AFD this morning...


MADE SOME MINOR GRID/FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ON THE MORNING UPDATE FOR
TODAY. WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUTSIDE OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT INTO
OUR AREA...RAISED POPS THERE JUST A BIT AND ADDED ALSO SOME THUNDER.
ALSO DID SOME SLIGHT UPWARD TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z NAM MODEL RUN STILL INDICATES THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY EVENING. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE COMING! 42
&&


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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A quick perusal of the GFS operational runs from 0z and 12z, at the 500mb vorticity charts, shows me that the guidance is trending for a slightly slower and deeper upper low. Should that verify, wintry precip chances for parts of Texas later this coming weekend will increase.
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Very interesting days ahead Porta. Very interesting.
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I know it's more than a week out, but what does early guidance have in store for us for Thanksgiving day? Hope it's a chilly Thanksgiving, I feel like we haven't had one of those in quite some time!
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Still a lot of uncertainty regard any wintry mischief across Texas and Oklahoma, but it is becoming rather clear that a major High Impact Winter Storm is ahead for most, if not all of New Mexico. The 12Z GEFS individual members still show a lot of spread as well as the GEM (Canadian) ensemble members for what we may see across Texas into Oklahoma. The 12Z operational European model does paint a very chilly wet and possibly wintry pattern developing this weekend cross a large portion of the Lone Star State and possibly into S Central Oklahoma. What does appear to be gaining some credibility is the development of a Coastal Low offshore of Corpus Christi and likely far enough S and E to bring very brisk NE winds and wedge the shallow Arctic air mass toward the Coastal Counties. Heavy cold rain with isolated stronger storms and possibly some sleet and freezing rain mixing in with the heavy rain may be possible Sunday night across the Hill Country into areas W of Dallas/Ft Worth and possibly as far S as the Hearne/Bryan/College Station area into the Lufkin/Nacogdoches Regions of the Piney Woods of E Texas. Thanksgiving looks a lot better weather wise across the area right now, but there is yet another upper low depicted via guidance taking shape back near California. Those traveling E for the Thanksgiving Holidays, there is still a lot of uncertainty this far out to know the 'finer details' but it does look cold for that Region of the US and possibly a Coastal Storm affecting portions of the I-95 Corridor.
11202013 19Z 5 Day Surface Charts 5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
Attachments
11202013 12Z Euro f96.gif
11202013 12Z Euro f120.gif
11202013 12Z Euro f144.gif
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Updated 5 Day QPF totals.
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I hope this holds true. I will be in middle Tennessee :D :D

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
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Don't see any snow/ice chances way down here, but the latest GFS does indicate that I need to move a lot farther south next week:

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