NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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ticka1
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The question to ask right now - when will we see our first blue norther in November and or will we continue to see this wet weather pattern across SE Texas area?
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srainhoutx
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The over night guidance continues to advertise a very unsettled pattern as we head into the first week of November. Yet another deep Western trough develops that taps into abundant tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific suggesting another heavy rainfall threat next Tuesday into Thursday. While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly how much additional rainfall we will see, the pattern suggests that we may be stuck in a regime where a somewhat blocking pattern evolves where the storm track dips SE into the Great Basin/Inter Mountain West and heads NE from the Southern Plains. We may be able to finally declare the long term Texas drought over if such a pattern does in fact develop. We will see.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z operational Euro is suggesting a deep Western trough and the potential for another heavy rainfall event beginning next Tuesday.
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10312013 12Z Euro f120.gif
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Paul Robison

From the recent GFS (18z) model runs, I think today's Halloween weather system is more impressive than next weeks' will be. Any differing opinions?

Edit:
As to severe weather, I'd say we've been lucky this year, eh?
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srainhoutx
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Once again we are facing a very complex and complicated pattern where a deep Western trough that appears to be slow moving and abundant Gulf moisture heads inland into the Southern Plains as well as deep tropical moisture associated with yet another EPAC tropical cyclone (future TS Sonia) combine to bring another heavy rainfall event for portions of Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas/Arkansas and Louisiana. What complicates the forecast this time is the guidance is suggesting a stronger SE Ridge that would tend to block the forward progression of the trough lending to another multi day heavy rainfall event that extends mid to late week time frame of the first full week of November. It is noteworthy that portions of the Hill County in Central Texas received nearly 15 inches of rainfall on October 30-31 and general amounts in the 4-8 inch range fell across the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana with isolated higher amounts near 10 to 11 inches. Any additional heavy rainfall return in a short period would lead to additional flooding threat across a Region that has received above normal amounts of rainfall for the month of October.
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Portastorm
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In their morning forecast discussion, NWSFO Austin/San Antonio (EWX) said the dewpoints for next week look as much as 5 degrees lower than this week's event. That, in turn, would limit the potential for excessively heavy rain. However, we all know that we're talking about a potential weather event some 96 hours away and a lot can change. The development of Sonia in the Pacific should play a large role.

Next week should be interesting. Heck, this fall has been interesting for us in south central Texas.

FYI -- major lowland flooding occurring this morning in Bastrop as the wave of water which fell along the I-35 corridor yesterday makes its way down the Colorado towards the Gulf.
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wxman57
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It does look like another line of storms may move through next Wednesday night/Thursday morning ahead of another cold front. Rainfall probably won't be as heavy as with yesterday's front.
Paul Robison

wxman57 wrote:It does look like another line of storms may move through next Wednesday night/Thursday morning ahead of another cold front. Rainfall probably won't be as heavy as with yesterday's front.

Question, not trolling: What about severe thunderstorms? How do the prospects look for those?
biffb816
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Well, where did this little bit of weather come from?
Paul Robison

biffb816 wrote:Well, where did this little bit of weather come from?
It's coming from the West. It's a trough that taps into abundant tropical moisture form the EPAC. Heavy rainfall I'm not too concerned about, personally, but we did have some powerful storms with damaging winds over Halloween. I guess the $64,000 question here is: will the same thing happen next week? Deja vu, in other words? Anybody?
TexasBreeze
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biffb816 wrote:Well, where did this little bit of weather come from?
Yup and it came in with gusty winds and heavy rain at my house!
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Rip76
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Very strange.
It's pouring here.
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Ptarmigan
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 020157
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
857 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE HI-RES MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON TROUGH AXIS AND
DEVELOPING SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION. UPDATED HOUSTON TAFS TO
INCLUDE VCSH/-TSRA IN TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL 04Z. EXPECT WIND SHIFT AS
CONVECTION PASSES. COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMMEND AS NECESSARY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LIKED
THE RAP13 COMBINED WITH THE NAM12 FOR THE BEST CHANCES TO BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDORS. THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A HOUR OR TWO AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REACHING KCLL SHORTLY WITH
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH N TX AND W C TX. COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT. CIGS SHOULD ALL BE VFR.

KCLL/KUTS/CXO...FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 03-05Z.
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 06Z-08Z.
KLBX/KGLS...FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 08-09Z. KLBX MAY BE ONLY
TERMINAL WITH VSBY ISSUES. DEWPOINTS STILL IN LOW/MID 60S SO WITH
CALM WINDS/CLEAR SKIES...COULD GET FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY BEFORE
FRONT. WILL GO WITH 4SM BUT VERY POSSIBLE VSBY COULD GO AS LOW AS
1/2SM. THINK ENOUGH WIND FOR KGLS AND NOT EXPECTING FOG.

ONLY ISSUE TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. ADDED GUSTS TO 25KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS TOMORROW.

39

&&

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Due to trough coming from the west. I remember something like this happened in August 2004.
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SusieinLP
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Uh where did the rain come from? Lol

Loud thunder just now.
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txflagwaver
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Was flipping channels and saw Fox26 weather radar...ran outside and grabbed the Halloween stuff that had dried off....just in time. I love the way Mother Nature has to show us she is NOT predictable :D
Paul Robison

Question:
Will the dynamics of next week's system be similar to Halloween's, together with the potential for widespread /strong to severe storms?
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srainhoutx
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After a nice couple of days across the Lone Star State that has been influenced by high pressure and cooler temps, that pattern will begin to transition as our surface winds switch back to an onshore flow off the Gulf later today and PW's slowly increase along with cloud cover. EPAC TS Sonia will begin to turn N then NE and head inland across the Baja Peninsula late tonight into Monday as a deep Western trough drops S into California. It does appear showers will begin to develop overnight mainly along the Middle Texas Coast and slowly increase in areal coverage Monday into Tuesday. PW's increase further to near the 2 inch range by Wednesday as a cold front approaches and may allow for additional showers and storms to develop. The best dynamics appear to be further N and W with this front, so the chances for a heavy rainfall event look better for potions of Oklahoma and Kansas. Out West a chilly/snowy pattern does appear to be taking shape with snow falling at the higher elevations across most of the West. Northern New Mexico may see rounds of heavy snowfall in the Angel Fire/Taos ski areas as well as all of Colorado ski areas. The pattern again cools down following the frontal passage late Wednesday night promising a pleasant cool zonal weather pattern for next weekend.

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srainhoutx
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Afternoon update from Jeff:

Next large scale storm system to affect TX currently dropping down the US west coast.

Another strong upper level storm system will impact the state early to middle part of this week. Southeast low level flow is already returning low level Gulf moisture to the coastal bend and the western sections of SE TX this afternoon while a stream of mid and high level moisture spills NE from TS Sonia off the west coast of MX south of Baja. Sonia will make landfall along the western Mexican coast over the next 48 hours with her moisture being brought NE across TX ahead of the main upper level storm. At the moment it looks like the main moisture from Sonia will pull across the state prior to the arrival of the main dynamics associated with the upper level storm system.

Moisture return and increasing disturbances in the noisy SW flow aloft will help promote a chance of scattered showers on Monday. High resolution models, most notably the TX TECH model, continues to show a “stream” of showers off the western Gulf inland over the Matagorda Bay region for a decent period of time from late tonight through Monday. Other short term guidance also shows these “streamer” lines off the Gulf, but not as pronounced nor in the same location for an extended time like the TTU model. With Gulf moisture increasing, can not rule out a shower for most areas on Monday into Tuesday. By later on Tuesday, lift from the main storm system will begin to approach the region and expect an increase in shower/thunderstorm development.

Main dynamics and front cross the area on Wednesday and this is when the greatest potential for heavy will be. Models show moisture values pushing 1.8-2.0 inches of PW which is again near maximum levels for this time of year, but not as high as the Halloween Day event. This storm system is a little more progressive and looks like the potential for cell training is less and focused more toward N TX and OK where maximum QPF (rainfall amounts) are currently being forecasted. With that said, another widespread 1-2.5 inches does look possible with this event and with grounds saturated and rivers peaking early in the week, even this amount of rainfall could result in significant run-off and additional watershed responses. Still plenty of time to watch and refine rainfall forecasted amounts and locations, but at the moment this event does not look as high on the rainfall totals as the Halloween storm system.

Hydro:

Flood waves currently passing through are river basins from the rainfall last week.

Colorado: River crested below flood stage at Columbus and will crest below flood stage at Wharton and Bay City

San Bernard: above flood stage at East Bernard and Boling and forecast to rise near Flood Stage at Sweeny by the middle of the week

Navasota: River crested just below major flood levels this weekend and should fall below flood stage by the middle of the week

Brazos: River will begin a secondary rise at Hempstead, Richmond, and Rosharon. All points are forecasted to crested below flood stage, although Rosharon will be very close to flood stage

Note: additional rainfall this week both over our region and north/west of SE TX could impact current river forecast crest levels and recessions.
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jcarr
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I was not aware it was going to be this windy.

Cool and windy, good chili weather. :D
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