January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Texaspirate11]

TIM HELLER just said this on the Channel 13 fb:
So he totally doesn't blow this off

Below is a map of where the Winter Storm Warning will be in effect. According to Tim Heller ABC 13 Weather, "Some light freezing rain/drizzle, perhaps mixed with sleet, will start to fall in the Houston area early Tuesday morning around sunrise. Temperatures will be around 30°, so as moisture falls icy patches could form on bridges and overpasses. There could be some problem spots for the afternoon/evening commute."

[jabcwb2]

Can someone please post the map? Thank you.

[TXStormjg]

From the words of Larry Cosgrove on a FB post about 15 min ago.

"Drop the warning fellows...I say the models are on to something in this case, this is Louisiana's storm..."

Yep, that is my post. Larry and I have been talking a lot lately, and he holds steadfast to his beliefs, and I will not argue with him. He can be right, and he can be wrong, but are we all like that? I tens to disagree with him right now, regarding he convo with me on my FB post.

[Snowman]

Does anyone know what exactly models are picking up on to cause them to trend drier?

[jasons2k]

It's getting into the time frame to stop model watching and look at observations out west.

I think the hi-res water vapor loops will probably tell you more than a 4-hour old GFS run at this point.

Shortwaves are not modeled well, especially ones swinging-in from Baja and traversing Northern MX.

[MRG93415]

What I dont understand is this. Alot of schools have shut down tomorrow and even Wednesday. THe courts in houston are closed. Metro has shut down the HOV lanes of 290, 45 and 59 and no buses will run at all in those park n ride locations. Ed Emmett made a speech. If all of this is going on, then why is so many people saying this is a BUST and confusing the heck out of me.

[djmike]

From the words of Larry Cosgrove on a FB post about 15 min ago.

"Drop the warning fellows...I say the models are on to something in this case, this is Louisiana's storm..."

Yep, that is my post. Larry and I have been talking a lot lately, and he holds steadfast to his beliefs, and I will not argue with him. He can be right, and he can be wrong, but are we all like that? I tens to disagree with him right now, regarding he convo with me on my FB post.

I have to disagree with him as well. He also discounts everything I post from the NWS on my FB. I value his expertise, but I have to agree more with what our NWS (LCH) is forecasting for the Beaumont area.

[Andrew]

Does anyone know what exactly models are picking up on to cause them to trend drier?

They are out of phase with the two streams of moisture. We have the south stream of moisture that is mainly a result of the baja disturbance. Next we have a shortwave in the trough axis that is sliding south of rockies. The models are picking up on the two streams not connecting until LA and points east. What some of the mesoscale models do pick up on though is the added moisture and disturbances that are flowing in from the pacific. This could help to increase moisture coverage.

[Paul]

Models are useless now so close to the event. What you all should be watching is the cold air temps in OK that are filtering down into Dallas area. Also the BAJA ULL funneling moisture into TX. Radar trends and temps....soundings from UH will help tomorrow.

Time to sit back and watch as it unfolds. No sense is making defintive statements either as I see some want to do on here. I could give a rats butt what Tim, Larry, and Moe say at this point. Or is it Larry, Moe and Curly? whatever..

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Does anyone know what exactly models are picking up on to cause them to trend drier?

They are out of phase with the two streams of moisture. We have the south stream of moisture that is mainly a result of the baja disturbance. Next we have a shortwave in the trough axis that is sliding south of rockies. The models are picking up on the two streams not connecting until LA and points east. What some of the mesoscale models do pick up on though is the added moisture and disturbances that are flowing in from the pacific. This could help to increase moisture coverage.

Very well said. Now that is lay forecasting!

[Kingwood31]

For what I've seen,if you want snow in this part of the woods you gotta live around college station or Huntsville cuz 9 times out of 10 they will always have a chance for snow more so than us in houston

[unome]

new youtube video update by HGX

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXAdwFHzUaQ

[jabcwb2]

Does anyone have a map/maps to post that show where the ice, freezing rain/snow lines could be for Harris County? Please and thank you.

[Snowman]

Does anyone know what exactly models are picking up on to cause them to trend drier?

They are out of phase with the two streams of moisture. We have the south stream of moisture that is mainly a result of the baja disturbance. Next we have a shortwave in the trough axis that is sliding south of rockies. The models are picking up on the two streams not connecting until LA and points east. What some of the mesoscale models do pick up on though is the added moisture and disturbances that are flowing in from the pacific. This could help to increase moisture coverage.

Okay I see that makes a lot of sense thank you for explaining that. Hopefully the two shortwaves end up meeting each other regardless of what the models say then everyone can be happy.

[jasons2k]

Usually something is up when all the Pro-mets go MIA from the board for so long. I will bet lots of discussion/analysis going-on because this one is such a close call, and it could go either way.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Very curious where the 850 freezing line sets up ... Those will be the SETX precip winners

[PaulEInHouston]

Does anyone have a map/maps to post that show where the ice, freezing rain/snow lines could be for Harris County? Please and thank you.

WPC has these maps:

Snow accumulations -
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

Freezing rain accumulations -
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... ptype=icez

[HouTXmetro]

What is up with SETX? Cold temps filtering in faster to our West AND East. IAH reporting 61, Mean while San Antonio airport to the west sits at 50 and and New Iberia about 30 South of Lafayette, LA is at 51, Lafayette is at 50.

[davidiowx]

What is up with SETX? Cold temps filtering in faster to our West AND East. IAH reporting 61, Mean while San Antonio airport to the west sits at 50 and and New Iberia about 30 South of Lafayette, LA is at 51, Lafayette is at 50.

Seriously.. I am wondering if we will get any frozen precip out of this. Front came through a few hours ago and the temps haven't dropped at all. I know the cold air is lagging behind but I didn't expect it to take this long.

[srainhoutx]

Let's compare the current observations ~vs~ what the 18Z HIRES NAM suggests is happening at the moment.