February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month
Yep I saw the same thing, i think at the very least we'll definitely have something to talk about by this weekend, as I expect the models to start "sniffing" out finer details by then, that cant be seen in the lower resolution range.
i hereby eat crow with my post. i have no patience.cperk wrote:ticka1 wrote:models busted with jan 28th event - i have no faith in what they say going forward.
I understand your frustration but the models are not perfect the NWS offices are under a gun when it comes to severe weather events, they have to produce a forecast to warn the public days in advance I would hate to have their job.
-
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:39 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (Medical Center/Reliant Park)
- Contact:
What's disappointing about this week is most models were forecasting a changeover to snow for this event. Pro-Mets assured us the air would be Plenty cold and below freezing therefore supporting snow after initial mix. The only question was QPF amounts. It seemed like the opposite occured. Temps struggled to get as low as advertised in the SE TX Weather Dome, the warm nose wreaked havoc with P-types, but the moisture was there.
Can't gripe to much though. 2 events, albeit minor in less than 7 days for this neck of the woods is a Extremely RARE.
Can't gripe to much though. 2 events, albeit minor in less than 7 days for this neck of the woods is a Extremely RARE.
-
- Pro Met
- Posts: 830
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- Contact:
All,
I think the moral of this story is that 'it ain't over 'til it's over'. Remember... TWO winter weather events within ONE week... in SETX?
Nothing to snark at. And, actually, many did mention that P-Type would be an issue - on this forum and others. However, while widespread heavy snow did not fall - there certainly were travel issues. Speaking from a forecasting standpoint, I do believe NWS, and city officials made the right call. We would have had many., many accidents, had the 'normal' amount of people been commuting through the morning. There are icy spots, and yes, there have been closures.
Now, on to actual weather. The CMC, ECMWF, and occasionally the GFS all advertise a huge pattern change starting late this weekend. Also, teleconnections (-PNA, -EPO/WPO, and -AO) support cold and unsettled weather across the inter-mountain west - eastward! Gone is the ridging in the southwest, now replaced with troughing. At the same time, western and northwestern Canada is forecasted to cool dramatically - the stage is set for storm(s) to traverse the entire Southern Plains with a variety of impacts...
Each storm laying down snow-pack, and tapping into a frigid Canadian air-mass. Time will tell what actually occurs, but y'all, active weather remains on the horizon.
I think the moral of this story is that 'it ain't over 'til it's over'. Remember... TWO winter weather events within ONE week... in SETX?
Nothing to snark at. And, actually, many did mention that P-Type would be an issue - on this forum and others. However, while widespread heavy snow did not fall - there certainly were travel issues. Speaking from a forecasting standpoint, I do believe NWS, and city officials made the right call. We would have had many., many accidents, had the 'normal' amount of people been commuting through the morning. There are icy spots, and yes, there have been closures.
Now, on to actual weather. The CMC, ECMWF, and occasionally the GFS all advertise a huge pattern change starting late this weekend. Also, teleconnections (-PNA, -EPO/WPO, and -AO) support cold and unsettled weather across the inter-mountain west - eastward! Gone is the ridging in the southwest, now replaced with troughing. At the same time, western and northwestern Canada is forecasted to cool dramatically - the stage is set for storm(s) to traverse the entire Southern Plains with a variety of impacts...
Each storm laying down snow-pack, and tapping into a frigid Canadian air-mass. Time will tell what actually occurs, but y'all, active weather remains on the horizon.
Add 12z Euro to the mix, its showing a winter storm across the central and southern half of the state around the 7th & 8th also...
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19611
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
If the Euro is correct, that storm will have much colder air entrenched across our Region as a potent upper low drops S into Mexico and treks E across Texas. While it is too soon to know the 'finer details', temperatures could tumble to the -10 to -20C range at 850MB suggesting our source Region of Eastern Alaska/Western Canada will unload a very chilly Arctic air mass with a cross Polar flow from Siberia. We will see.don wrote:Add 12z Euro to the mix, its showing a winter storm across the central and southern half of the state around the 7th & 8th also...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
It is very rare to see two winter events in less than a week. Even 1973 or 1985 could not do that.HouTXmetro wrote:What's disappointing about this week is most models were forecasting a changeover to snow for this event. Pro-Mets assured us the air would be Plenty cold and below freezing therefore supporting snow after initial mix. The only question was QPF amounts. It seemed like the opposite occured. Temps struggled to get as low as advertised in the SE TX Weather Dome, the warm nose wreaked havoc with P-types, but the moisture was there.
Can't gripe to much though. 2 events, albeit minor in less than 7 days for this neck of the woods is a Extremely RARE.
February has some of the biggest freezes like 1895, 1899, 1951, 1985, and 1989. It also have the heaviest snowfall totals, 1895 and 1960.
A nice swath of 2-4 inch snowfall over the Hill Country and southeast Texas on the Euro...and the upper level trof axis is still hanging back over New Mexico at hour 240.
'There's a spirit can ne'er be told...'
-
- Pro Met
- Posts: 839
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
- Location: Spring/Woodlands
- Contact:
18z gfs is close but beyond truncation so we'll have to watch from afar to see what model is going to give in: the bitterly cold and snowy 12z Euro or the warmer and wet 18z gfs.
As we saw with the last two events now, the models will waffle up until the very start of the event and even then will often be surprised by the placement and qpf that verifies that the models ''didn't pick up on.''
Btw, an all-time record high in Alaska today. Port Alsworth, AK: 62°F. Not only is it a record for the township but it's an all-time record high for January for the entire state! Pretty simple meteorology: strong ridging up north over the Alaska, cold in the lower 48 (generally east of the Rockies).
I can't believe I'm saying this but is it Spring yet? lol. I'm a cold weather lover but dang...
As we saw with the last two events now, the models will waffle up until the very start of the event and even then will often be surprised by the placement and qpf that verifies that the models ''didn't pick up on.''
Btw, an all-time record high in Alaska today. Port Alsworth, AK: 62°F. Not only is it a record for the township but it's an all-time record high for January for the entire state! Pretty simple meteorology: strong ridging up north over the Alaska, cold in the lower 48 (generally east of the Rockies).
I can't believe I'm saying this but is it Spring yet? lol. I'm a cold weather lover but dang...