February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[jasons2k]

What's disappointing about this week is most models were forecasting a changeover to snow for this event. Pro-Mets assured us the air would be Plenty cold and below freezing therefore supporting snow after initial mix. The only question was QPF amounts. It seemed like the opposite occured. Temps struggled to get as low as advertised in the SE TX Weather Dome, the warm nose wreaked havoc with P-types, but the moisture was there.

Speaking of...there was a question posed on another forum about the warmer pocket of air over the Houston area overnight. You could clearly see a wedge of warmer surface temps across SE Texas, extending north towards the Tyler/Longview areas. It was much colder to the west and northwest, and also to the east and northeast. The poster was asking if this was caused by the Ouachita mountains (or something else) preventing the colder air to plow into SE Texas?

I'm curious too...has anyone looked into this?

Any takers on this? I thought my fellow weather geeks would be all over this one....

[stormlover]

Hey ed I was looking on the euro tropical ewall and it looks to warm for a winter event in Beaumont, am I looking at this wrong?

[wxman57]

The 12Z Euro backed off on any snow for Houston late next week. I expect significant run-to-run variance in all the models over the next 3-4 days.

[srainhoutx]

Evening Update from Jeff:

Active weather period over the next 7 days will bring rapid changes to SE TX.

Warm southerly flow continues this evening with surface dewpoints pushing 60 along the coast and offshore buoys showing low to mid 60’s over the central and NW Gulf heading this way. With nearshore water temperatures in the low 50’s would expect the incoming warm and humid air mass to chill to saturation while passing over the cold waters near the coast and form a dense sea fog bank. So far no visibility issues along the coast this evening, likely due to winds being just a little too strong to form fog. Winds should gradually weakening tonight into Saturday and think this is the best time for dense sea fog to form. Sea fog will likely spread inland from the coast on Saturday evening as moisture increases and wind drop ahead of the next cold front on Sunday.

Sunday:
Frontal boundary will cross the region during the day with a chance of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Mid levels are looking warm so thunderstorms will likely be far and few…but there will be a good chance of showers along and ahead of the boundary. This is a shallow but potent front and temperatures at the surface will fall from the 60’s ahead of the boundary into the 40’s behind the boundary by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.


Sunday night-Monday:
Cold surface high pressure will build into the region, but this will be short lived as the next upper trough approaches quickly from the west. Frontal boundary will stall over the Gulf waters and start to return northward as a warm front on Monday. Expect cloudy conditions with drizzle and fog developing from the coast northward on Monday afternoon into the evening hours. Temperatures will slowly warm from the 40’s into the 50’s.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
Warm front moves northward into the area, but not sure how far north it will get late Tuesday. Strong lift will arrive along with good moisture to produce a round of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Do not expect severe weather at the moment, but one is always aware of such potential when a warm front is in/near a region. Think once again warm mid level temperatures will suppress effective thunderstorm generation. Wednesday front will be of more arctic origin and will see a rapid temperature fall on Wednesday as the front crosses the region. Should see all rainfall end prior to any potential for freezing temperatures so not looking at any freezing/frozen precipitation.

Thursday-Saturday:
Arctic cold dome entrenches over the area once again. Think models are not handling the potential with this air mass very well given the frequent storms next week in a SW to NE track across the southern and central plains which will lay down a good amount of snow and ice across the plains. Cold air flowing out of Canada will be passing over this snow/ice and not modifying as much as it could. Think models will trend colder and colder over the next few days. Fast and active upper flow will continue and yet another storm system will approach the region by late Thursday into Friday. This storm looks fairly potent and with cold arctic air entrenched over the state some areas could be faced with P-type concerns. For now given the poor model run to run and model to model agreement will keep everything rain over SE TX and await better confidence.

Note: Latest release of the US drought monitor shows drought conditions continuing to worsen across SE TX. Rainfall has been lacking since late November and this trend has continued through December and January. The next few days will offer some of the best rain chances much of the region has faced in months and hopefully this will lead to some wetting of the top soil layers and vegetation and help keep fire weather concerns down. Unfortunately rainfall amounts look least to the southwest around Matagorda Bay and southwest of that where drought conditions are most severe currently.

[Paul Robison]

Evening Update from Jeff:

Active weather period over the next 7 days will bring rapid changes to SE TX.

Warm southerly flow continues this evening with surface dewpoints pushing 60 along the coast and offshore buoys showing low to mid 60’s over the central and NW Gulf heading this way. With nearshore water temperatures in the low 50’s would expect the incoming warm and humid air mass to chill to saturation while passing over the cold waters near the coast and form a dense sea fog bank. So far no visibility issues along the coast this evening, likely due to winds being just a little too strong to form fog. Winds should gradually weakening tonight into Saturday and think this is the best time for dense sea fog to form. Sea fog will likely spread inland from the coast on Saturday evening as moisture increases and wind drop ahead of the next cold front on Sunday.

Sunday:
Frontal boundary will cross the region during the day with a chance of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Mid levels are looking warm so thunderstorms will likely be far and few…but there will be a good chance of showers along and ahead of the boundary. This is a shallow but potent front and temperatures at the surface will fall from the 60’s ahead of the boundary into the 40’s behind the boundary by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.


Sunday night-Monday:
Cold surface high pressure will build into the region, but this will be short lived as the next upper trough approaches quickly from the west. Frontal boundary will stall over the Gulf waters and start to return northward as a warm front on Monday. Expect cloudy conditions with drizzle and fog developing from the coast northward on Monday afternoon into the evening hours. Temperatures will slowly warm from the 40’s into the 50’s.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
Warm front moves northward into the area, but not sure how far north it will get late Tuesday. Strong lift will arrive along with good moisture to produce a round of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Do not expect severe weather at the moment, but one is always aware of such potential when a warm front is in/near a region. Think once again warm mid level temperatures will suppress effective thunderstorm generation. Wednesday front will be of more arctic origin and will see a rapid temperature fall on Wednesday as the front crosses the region. Should see all rainfall end prior to any potential for freezing temperatures so not looking at any freezing/frozen precipitation.

Thursday-Saturday:
Arctic cold dome entrenches over the area once again. Think models are not handling the potential with this air mass very well given the frequent storms next week in a SW to NE track across the southern and central plains which will lay down a good amount of snow and ice across the plains. Cold air flowing out of Canada will be passing over this snow/ice and not modifying as much as it could. Think models will trend colder and colder over the next few days. Fast and active upper flow will continue and yet another storm system will approach the region by late Thursday into Friday. This storm looks fairly potent and with cold arctic air entrenched over the state some areas could be faced with P-type concerns. For now given the poor model run to run and model to model agreement will keep everything rain over SE TX and await better confidence.

Note: Latest release of the US drought monitor shows drought conditions continuing to worsen across SE TX. Rainfall has been lacking since late November and this trend has continued through December and January. The next few days will offer some of the best rain chances much of the region has faced in months and hopefully this will lead to some wetting of the top soil layers and vegetation and help keep fire weather concerns down. Unfortunately rainfall amounts look least to the southwest around Matagorda Bay and southwest of that where drought conditions are most severe currently.

Dear Srainhoutex:

Are you saying Houstonians are going to have to deal with icy roads again?

P.S. Let's pray for the people in the drought areas you mentioned, OK?

[djjordan]

Another nice morning here in SE Texas. I'm gonna take advantage of this since we are still on the rollercoaster ride of winter. Good Saturday Morning Weather friends!!!!!!

[tireman4]

This front is moving faster than forecast. Why do I say that? As of a day ago, DFW was not forecasted to have P-Type issues. Now, I hear that a WWA might be hoisted. So, my question is, will this front make it us earlier than forecasted. I have heard Sunday afternoon. Could it be today? Thanks?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is trending colder during the Wednesday into Friday time frame. It is also noteworthy the the GFS develops a Coastal Low over night Thursday into Friday near Brownsville and is a bit more progressive with the upper air disturbance tracking E across Northern Mexico. There are also 'hints' of phasing with yet another upper air short wave dropping SE from the Great Basin. While we are still a good 5 to 6 days out, expect changes in this very challenging forecast as the week moves forward. We will see.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1055 AM EST SAT FEB 01 2014

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 04 2014 - 12Z SAT FEB 08 2014


...WET PATTERN TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ICE, AND SNOW ACROSS
THE UNITED STATES...

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO SETTLE ONTO A COMMON THEME AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH COLD AIR BANKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES,
AND A MOIST STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE WEST WILL SEE
RAIN AND SNOW AS THE IMPULSES COME ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC, WITH
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES RECEIVING RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR
FRONT, AND SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE FIRST BIG
IMPULSE WILL LIFT INTO THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH A RELOADING OF ENERGY
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.


CISCO

[Portastorm]

This front is moving faster than forecast. Why do I say that? As of a day ago, DFW was not forecasted to have P-Type issues. Now, I hear that a WWA might be hoisted. So, my question is, will this front make it us earlier than forecasted. I have heard Sunday afternoon. Could it be today? Thanks?

Very unlikely the front would be in your area today. In their mid-morning forecast update (AFD), EWX talked about this potential and indicated that the pressure rises to the northwest weren't all that strong and the warm air over my house and yours will be stout enough to hold court today before it yields tomorrow.

[tireman4]

Gotcha. Thanks Porta.

[srainhoutx]

The GEFS suggests about .50+ QPF across Central/E/SE Texas overnight Thursday into Friday with higher amounts closer to the Coast into Louisiana N of the Coastal Low.

[sambucol]

Is there a good chance of snow in our area during that timeframe, Srainhoutx?

[weatherag]

Winter storm warnings up for portions of southern Oklahoma/northwest Texas. Soundings look good for mostly snow around Wichita Falls. Euro dumps 3-5 inches of snow in a corridor from Wichita Falls n'eastward to just south of Norman. If I weren't tied down here this weekend, I might go up there to enjoy the snow. I missed the storm of the century (4 FEET of snow over the last 7 days) at Breckenridge by a week.

[TxJohn]

What does the Euro say?

[don]

What does the Euro say?

Just a cold rain with temps in the upper 30's to low 40's, me thinks its too warm though...

[srainhoutx]

There is a great deal of spread within the 50+ individual 12Z Euro Ensembles. The late week potential event is far from a done deal and I expect aadditional changes in the forecast into mid next week. The computer models are having major issues in this current progressive and complex pattern. A lot of snow is going to fall throughout the week across the Southern Rockies, Central and Southern Plains where there has been little if any moisture over the past 35-40 days.

[srainhoutx]

FWD issues Winter Storm Warning for locations NW of Ft Worth/Dallas. Winter Weather Advisories are issued for all of the Metroplex for tomorrow.

[TxJohn]

Hopefully the system next week is all snow...or all rain. Don't really want another ice event.

[TxJohn]

What does the Euro say?

Just a cold rain with temps in the upper 30's to low 40's, me thinks its too warm though...

Thanks!

[don]

18z GFS is colder and shows an ice storm next Friday fwiw.