April: Sunny and Dry Heading Into May

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South_Texas_Storms
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Will April showers bring May flowers to Texas this year? I really hope so!
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Ptarmigan
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April has had heavy rain. flooding, and severe thunderstorms with tornadoes. There have been cold blasts in April like 1973, 1987, and 2007. Last April was quite cold.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=severe_events_april

April is the cruelest month.
-T.S. Eliot, The Waste Land

April has had many well known disasters and tragic events.
Binghampton Massacre-April 3, 2009 13 Killed
Super Outbreak-April 3-4, 1974 319 Killed
USS Akron Crash-April 4, 1933 73 Killed
Tan Son Nhut C-5 Accident-April 4, 1975 153 Killed
Upper Big Branch Mine Disaster-April 5, 2010 29 Killed
Tupelo–Gainesville Tornado Outbreak-April 5-6, 1936 +436 Killed
Start Of Rwanadan Genocide-April 7, 1994 500,000-1,000,000 Killed
Civil War Ends-April 9, 1865 620,000 Killed
1965 Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak-April 11–12, 1965 271 Killed
First Shot Fired In American Civil War-April 12, 1861 620,000 Killed
Titanic Disaster-April 14-15,1912 1,500 Killed
Boston Marathon Bombing-April 15, 2013 3 Killed
Texas City Explosion-April 16, 1947 600 Killed
Virginia Tech Massacre-April 16, 2007 32 Killed
West Fertilizer Company Explosion-April 17, 2013 15 Killed
San Francisco Earthquake-April 18, 1906 3,000-6,000 Killed
Waco Inferno-April 19, 1993 78 Killed
Oklahoma City Bombing-April 19, 1995 169 Killed
Ludlow Massacre-April 20, 1914 19-25 Killed
South African Airways Flight 228-April 20, 1968 123 Killed
Columbine Massacre-April 20, 1999 13 Killed
Deepwater Horizon/Macondo Well Disaster-April 20, 2010 11 Killed
Guadalajara Explosions-April 22, 1992 252 Killed
Rhythm Club Fire-April 23, 1940 209 Killed
Dan-Air Flight 1008-April 25, 1980 146 Killed
2011 Super Outbreak-April 25–28, 2011 358 Killed
Uireyong Massacre-April 26-27, 1982 57 Killed
China Airlines Flight 140-April 26, 1994 264 Killed
SS Sultana Explodes-April 27, 1865 1,800 Killed
Port Arthur Massacre-April 28-29, 1996 35 Killed
Tropical Cyclone 02B Makes Landfall On Bangladesh-April 29, 1991 140,000 Killed
Los Angeles Riot-April 29-May 4, 1992 53 Killed

Some of the worst disasters in American and world history occurred in April. Bold denotes weather and natural disaster.
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Good grief Ptarmigan! What grim news!
I will continue to heed the advice to always be weather aware but I tend to prefer to think about the prospect of April showers and future May flowers as suggested by SouthTexasStorms!
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srainhoutx
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The guidance is slowly converging on what appears to be at least two events in the early days of April. The first chance of rain starts mid week with a severe threat across portions of the Southern Plains extending E with a stronger system emerging out of the W next weekend.
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Andrew
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Looks like the shortwave crossing the central plains on Wednesday/Thursday could present a severe threat across Oklahoma and Texas. Depending on how far south the shortwave transitions will influence on where the greatest chance of severe is going to take place. Early soundings from the GFS shows ample amount of CAPE across central Texas all the way north to Oklahoma. A really strong return flow from the gulf should take place ahead of the front as we see plenty of WAA but similar to last time the biggest issue seems to be capping and low level shear. Of course it is early and models are still having difficulties with timing and amplitude of the wave. After this first shortwave it looks like another one will follow this coming weekend and it could dig a lot farther south. Active times ahead most likely for a large chunk of the central U.S.
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Andrew
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:^^12Z GFS a little less depressing for rain. 12Z Euro might have a Thursday afternoon MCS or squall line, and then again Saturday, and maybe a slow moving rainy system Sunday into Monday morning.

Euro ensembles like Sunday as well, almost half an inch of precip Sunday before 1 pm alone, and more after.


EDIT TO ADD:

Verbatim, new 0Z GFS missed my house Thursday, but has a decent shower, maybe a storm, in the Northern suburbs. GFS not as excited on weekend system as 12Z Euro
GFS shows some pretty impressive parameters across SE Texas come Wednesday and Thursday. Depending on where the dryline sets up we could see some interesting weather.
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Pretty irritating these weekend storms. I swear, every time we pick a weekend to play in a baseball tournament it rains. When we don't, we get a weekend like this past one....

Crossing my fingers for Thursday rain and none sat or Sun. College station bound so maybe it'll lay off there.
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srainhoutx
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The capping inversion appears to keep our rain/storm chances on Thursday somewhat limited, but the Euro/GFS solutions are suggesting a stalled boundary draped across the Region this weekend with a potent Southern tracking short wave (upper air disturbance) offering a fairly widespread chance of rainfall and perhaps some severe storms as we get into the Sunday/Monday time frame. Fingers crossed for those 2 inch rainfall amounts.
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote:The capping inversion appears to keep our rain/storm chances on Thursday somewhat limited, but the Euro/GFS solutions are suggesting a stalled boundary draped across the Region this weekend with a potent Southern tracking short wave (upper air disturbance) offering a fairly widespread chance of rainfall and perhaps some severe storms as we get into the Sunday/Monday time frame. Fingers crossed for those 2 inch rainfall amounts.
Hopefully that will hold up. Usually when El Nino is developing, it tends to be wetter in the spring.
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Katdaddy
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Cloudy, warm, and isolated light showers possible today and tomorrow followed by slight thunderstorm chances Thursday through Friday for SE TX. Some isolated strong storms may occur Thursday depending on the strength of the cap. We need some widespread significant rainfall.
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