May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

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ticka1
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With May fast approaching - time to start looking forward to what type of weather we will see during the month of May? Will it continue to get warmer and dryer?

Or will we see cooler weather with more showers/storms/rain during this month?

Post your thoughts here! :mrgreen:
BlueJay
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I vote for a rainy May 2014.
But, that might not happen. We will see.
BlueJay
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:I should go drop into the May thread and mention 0Z EPS control run has right at 1 inch, total, for 16 days through 13 May. And half of that was supposed to fall today, which it won't, or the road goes on forever and the drought will never end.

Until the monumental flood that causes incredible damage and loss of life, but the wild fires will come first. Maybe it'll be the Woodlands.

I am fearful that you could be right, Ed. We were lucky the last time. There is certainly plenty of fire fuel in my area. YIKES! ...
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current KBDI map

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interactive here: http://sslmaps.tamu.edu/website/kbdi/viewer.htm
Andrew
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Unfortunately the next week or so looks relatively dry. There are indications that we could see another trough sweep across the central plains next week which could increase rain chances locally. As we head into May, I have less confidence in an amplified system making it this far south, but this winter has proven strong to say the least. Something to keep an eye on as we head into next week. On another note, while the short term weather doesn't look encouraging, long term signals do look at least a little positive. We will see how things turnout as we head into summer.

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BlueJay
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Happy May Day to All!
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jasons2k
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I think drought and moisture maps may be behind reality. The NWS and Jeff's emails allude to drying grasses and possible future impacts to trees, etc. I can report that the reality here in Montgomery County is much worse than those maps imply. The pine trees are turning from yellow to now an orange and the massive needle drop is about to start. It's looks like 2011 again.
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Is it too early to yell "MAYDAY! "MAYDAY!" ?
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jasons wrote:I think drought and moisture maps may be behind reality. The NWS and Jeff's emails allude to drying grasses and possible future impacts to trees, etc. I can report that the reality here in Montgomery County is much worse than those maps imply. The pine trees are turning from yellow to now an orange and the massive needle drop is about to start. It's looks like 2011 again.
Keep in mind though that agriculture related droughts vary the most. It doesn't take much to make or fix that type of drought. I know that multiple types of droughts and their effects go into the drought monitor outputs.
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jasons2k
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Random thought: I was in Austin 3 weeks ago, and it was greener there than here in H-town. Oh, and the wildflowers/bluebonnets were at their peak along 290 and just amazing.
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Ptarmigan
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Very concerned about the drought. Only saving grace is a developing El Nino.
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Ptarmigan
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Andrew wrote:
jasons wrote:I think drought and moisture maps may be behind reality. The NWS and Jeff's emails allude to drying grasses and possible future impacts to trees, etc. I can report that the reality here in Montgomery County is much worse than those maps imply. The pine trees are turning from yellow to now an orange and the massive needle drop is about to start. It's looks like 2011 again.
Keep in mind though that agriculture related droughts vary the most. It doesn't take much to make or fix that type of drought. I know that multiple types of droughts and their effects go into the drought monitor outputs.
It is no surprise we are paying more at the grocery store.
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jasons wrote:Random thought: I was in Austin 3 weeks ago, and it was greener there than here in H-town. Oh, and the wildflowers/bluebonnets were at their peak along 290 and just amazing.

They also got close to half an inch of rain there compared to only .02 at KIAH.

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Ptarmigan
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May 19, 2000 is the wettest calendar day on record at Intercontinental Airport. A mesoscale convection system (MCS) developed and dump heavy rain. That same system went over Liberty County and dumped 19 inches of rain! 18 inches of it fell in 5 hours! This occurred during La Nina and a drought. There were severe weather outbreaks in April and May 2000.

However, the wettest 24 hours regardless of calendar day is May 17-18, 1989. Massive thunderstorms from Central Texas stalled over Southeast Texas. A total of 10.36 inches of rain fell. Spring saw 15 inches of rain.

As a result, May 1989 and 2000 are among the wettest May on record. The wettest occurred in 1907 and 1914.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_may
http://www.texasalmanac.com/topics/envi ... ther-2000s
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_may
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srainhoutx
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The global guidance is suggesting another potent trough developing out West. There is some indication that an EPAC Tropical disturbance may develop and slowly head N and E around the same time that a robust MJO pulse pushes E across the Pacific and the sub tropical jet becomes active. If such a solution were to verify, we could see some rainfall enhancement as deep tropical moisture from the Pacific is pulled NE into Texas as the trough slowly advances our way.
Attachments
05022014 00Z Euro Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192.gif
05022014 00Z Euro Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_192.gif
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srainhoutx
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The overnight guidance continues to offer hope that the dry pattern may break late next week with a deep Western trough and possibly a cut off meandering upper low as well as an EPAC tropical disturbance moving N just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. the GFS is suggesting deep tropical moisture streaming N from the Bay of Campeche as well from the Pacific and the chance of another severe weather episode across the Plains as all the ingredients combine beginning next Thursday and extending into the weekend. Fingers Crossed!


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY N-NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS OBSERVED BY
SHIP A8NQ6 NEAR 14.5N95W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NE
MEXICO...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING
AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S.
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND END BY LATE SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT
DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LAND...ALLOWING THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS
TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 14 FEET.



...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
08N108W LIES WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR IT WILL BE LIFTED BY THE VERTICAL
MOTION INDUCED BY THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT AROUND MID WEEK...CAUSING THE SYSTEM
TO DEEPEN.

05032014 Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif
The attachment 05032014 Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif is no longer available
05032014 1315Z EPAC avn-l.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Andrew
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The 12z gfs would be just what the doctor ordered for most of the state (including locally). We have a mid level trough extending across most of the central plains with added energy staying out west. Orientation of the trough would indicate that a multi-day rain event could be possible with a nice line of showers coming through once everything ejects east. Definitely a cautiously optimistic sign.

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Katdaddy
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While we have another perfect weather day across TX its time for a reminder that 2014 Hurricane Season is not far away with the ATL Hurricane Season beginning June 1st. The forecast of El Nino will lead to less tropical cyclones but it only takes one. Severe weather threat also returns to the Central Plains by Thursday.
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Updated QPF for days 4 to 5 and 6 to 7 suggest the Western trough will not be in any hurry to shift E of Texas. The latest ensemble and operational guidance continues to advertise a potential active period late this coming week with several embedded short waves and the mean trough axis digging rather far S into Northern Mexico as it stays W of the Lone Star State. The tropical convection W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to deepen along the monsoonal trough and it appears there are a couple of areas of vorticity associated along the ITCZ/monsoonal trough. The general feeling is that as these areas of vorticty or cyclonic spin merge, a broad surface low will develop mid week and begin to slowly head NE toward the Mexican Pacific Coast. I'd watch for a wave of low pressure to develop somewhere along Coastal Texas or Northwestern Gulf of Mexico next weekend as a weak frontal boundary stalls across Central Texas providing a potential axis or lifting mechanism for a widespread rainfall event. While it is still a bit far out in time, the indications leaning toward a multi day rainfall event that would be welcomed across our drought parched Region. Fingers crossed!
05042014 1930Z EPAC HPWV.jpg
05042014 20Z Day 4 to 5 QPF 95ep48iwbg_fill.gif
The attachment 05042014 20Z Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif is no longer available
05042014 20Z Day 7 QPF p168i.gif
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