June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

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srainhoutx
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It appears a weak meso low has developed just offshore from the Bolivar Peninsula. The surface boundary is still N of Metro Houston and may sag S a bit closer to the Region. It is always worth monitoring convection across our nnear shore Gulf waters to see if they persist and maintain their convection. Surface winds off the Gulf are from the S as mid upper flow is from the NW. It is also note worthy that the guidance suggests daily sea/bay breeze convection could continue and increasing storm chances across West Texas as moisture from EPAC Hurricane Christina gets pulled NE across Mexico.
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jasons2k
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I don't have the full loops, but I suspect that meso low is the same one that formed an arc along the outflow and wrapped as it pushed across the Austin area last night, and then trekked across to the Gulf.
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jasons2k
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Hard to say how extensive the coverage will be, of course, but today is a setup for a least some folks to get a LOT of rain. Similar to yesterday, the storms are backbuilding to the NW along the outflow/sea breeze as it advances NW. As the storms themselves drift SE, they could train over the same location for a long time. It will be feast or famine.
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srainhoutx
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TCU field is becoming a bit agitated along an old boundary as well as N of the stalled frontal boundary.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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South_Texas_Storms
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Beneficial heavy rain has fallen across much of Texas throughout the past 30 days. Some places have received over 10 inches since the middle of May! I'm very thankful for all of the rain we've gotten and hope the wet weather pattern continues.

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kayci
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Awesome news!
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djjordan
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 618 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CUT AND SHOOT...OR 11
MILES EAST OF CONROE...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...THE WOODLANDS...KINGWOOD...OAK RIDGE NORTH...
SHENANDOAH...SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...
WOODBRANCH...CUT AND SHOOT...WOODLOCH...PORTER HEIGHTS...
THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION...CHATEAU WOODS...NEW CANEY AND PORTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
BlueJay
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Heads up Jason! It's coming to you again!
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MBY got lucky on Friday the 13th! 0.01 inches IMBY!

Wet & wild - 4
High & dry - 9
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jasons2k
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BlueJay wrote:Heads up Jason! It's coming to you again!
Heh - was eating dinner at Lupe Tortilla and for a few minutes I was afraid I was about to get large hail and a major dumping. It looked pretty bad. And then....

That storm evaporated so fast - literally within minutes - and I came home to only .04"
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Another healthy line of t-storms pushing across W. Texas. Any thoughts on how far south & east that system goes?
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jasons2k
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NWS appears to be going with the wetter Euro next week. Let's hope we see continued chances for rain.
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srainhoutx
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jasons wrote:NWS appears to be going with the wetter Euro next week. Let's hope we see continued chances for rain.
With abundant mid/upper level moisture and associated impulses embedded with yet another Western trough as well as additional moisture streaming NE across Mexico from dying TC Christina, it makes sense that the pattern is conducive for additional rain/storm chances and some possibly heavy across the Lone Star State during the coming work week. The upper ridge is so flat and almost negligible. Sea/bay breeze storms look to be an almost daily occurrence which is a typical summer time pattern that we have not seen in several years. There are also indications that the Eastern Pacific will continue to be very active along the monsoonal trough with yet another tropical cyclone developing later next week.

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Rip76
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That's sounds great Ed.

Although I do see a little sea breeze action out there.
It's not much.
unome
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this feels more like the Houston summers I remember, steamy & hot to be sure, but always some clouds & scattered showers to keep it bearable

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-96
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srainhoutx
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Morning Update from Jeff:

Near typical summer pattern in place over the region with high pressure in the upper levels and good onshore flow allowing plentiful surface to mid level moisture.

Radar is already active this morning west of I-45 where deepest moisture resides with returns from Matagorda Bay inland to near College Station. This activity is in response to a feed of deeper moisture with PWS in the 1.7-1.9 inch range extending from deep S TX northward into central TX on the western flank of a sub-tropical ridge over the SW Atlantic Ocean. A mid level trough axis with some association with the remains of once Hurricane Cristina in the eastern Pacific Ocean is currently found over old MX WSW of the TX Big Bend region.

This trough axis will gradually build northward over the next 48 hours extending from the TX Hill County southward along the Rio Grande. Deep tropical moisture will move NNW from the western Gulf up the Rio Grande and begin to interact with this nearly stationary trough axis. This type of setup in the summer months can at times produce excessive rainfall if/when vort energy aloft develop “tropical like” characteristics and focus their rainfall in the overnight hours as known as a nocturnal core rainfall event. This trough axis is a little weaker than what I would like to see to have much confidence in excessive flooding rainfall over SW TX, but something to keep an eye on over the next 48 hours.

Closer the SE TX moisture will continue to stream inland off the Gulf of Mexico and very weak energy (short waves) will eject out of the SW TX trough and across SE TX. One of the strongest looks to move across the area Wednesday afternoon with a slight increase in the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Given very dry air layer above 700mb think activity will remain scattered and focused mainly along the inland moving seabreeze/baybreeze fronts.

Upper ridge attempts to build into the region later this week, but as has been the case so far early summer it does not really gain a strong foothold and is weak enough to allow a 20% chance of daily showers and storms along the seabreeze. This will also keep high temperatures near seasonal averages and not in the 95-100 degree range we have become use to over the past 2-3 summers. Both the GFS and ECMWF models show a weakness once again developing between the sub-tropical ridges early next week and this may allow an increase in seabreeze convection.

Atlantic basin tropics are.quiet

 
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Rip76
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unome wrote:this feels more like the Houston summers I remember, steamy & hot to be sure, but always some clouds & scattered showers to keep it bearable

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-96


I told my wife the same exact thing yesterday.
The feel of old summers past... Or "Pre-Ike" if you will.
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srainhoutx
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The weather pattern looks relative quiet except for some isolated rain/storm chances into the weekend. There is some growing indications that our first good shot of a tropical wave may near the Yucatan this weekend and enter the Gulf early next week. The Euro suggests the wave may near the Texas Coast mid next week as a weakness develops across our Region. The GFS which has been performing poorly indicates the wave will shear out and turn more toward Florida. If the Euro solution is correct with the upper air pattern, a wet week may unfold for a good part of next week. We will see.
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jasons2k
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For the first time in awhile, the lawn is a little wilted and the blades have that silvery/dry look to them. Sure would be nice to have the natural sprinklers on.
unome
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funky looking radar this morning at Laughlin AFB

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... roduct=FTM

000
NOUS64 KEWX 181113
FTMDFX
Message Date: Jun 18 2014 11:13:37

KDFX 88D HAS MULTIPLE ERRORS. INTENSITIES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN SHOWN. MAINTENANCE
HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. CP/FIC

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